The risk of a huge shift towards absentee voting isn't fraud that hurts the GOP. It's administrati

[soothsayer]

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The risk of a huge shift towards absentee voting isn’t fraud that hurts the GOP.

It’s administrative dysfunction & voter inexperience that leads to millions of (disproportionately Dem) ballots not counting.

This is why I'm not convinced the "Trump's attacks on mail voting will backfire/depress GOP turnout" narrative is accurate.

Trump is currently creating a massive partisan divide between in-person (R) and absentee (D) votes. And absentees are rejected at much higher rates.

Take #NY27's June special election, for example. The Republican, Chris Jacobs (R), led 70%-28% in the Election Day count.

Once absentees were counted, that lead shrunk to 51%-46% (!). This kind of partisan divide is virtually without precedent.

The absentee rejection rates from pandemic primaries (4-8% in KY, 20% in NYC) are many times higher than in past elections and should be setting off alarm bells for Dems.

No doubt postmarks/signatures will be intensely litigated. But Trump thrives on chaos/murkiness.

Biden's current lead would almost certainly withstand much higher-than-usual rejection rates of absentee ballots.

But, even setting aside the prospect of the Electoral College race tightening, think about how many Sen/House races are likely to come down to <2% margins.

To me, it’s surprising that that there’s not more of an emphasis on early *in-person* voting for those at lower disease risk as a means of relieving the burden on many states’ 1) strained Election Day infrastructure and 2) strained absentee ballot regimes.

[Thekaspervote]

1. Here's just one link of a whole page of links that beg to differ...horse race..ready set go!

https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-crusade-against-vote-by-mail-could-backfire-on-republicans-2020-5

[soothsayer]

2. Oh good I want the scary thread to be wrong

[Thekaspervote]

5. Why so snarky? Geez, there are articles to prove my point by WAPO, NYT and others

[lark]

3. I so agree with you that early voting is the most efficient way to ensure your vote counts.

You can vote at any library, downtown at the election offices or anywhere else designated. You don't have to vote in "your" precinct so is excellent for people who moved & don't have their addresses updated. There is no signature matching done on early voting in the state of FL where there is strict signature review of every single mailed in and absentee ballots. In 2018 over 100,000 ballots were rejected for the handwriting changing, most of these were elderly democrats or those with non-native sounding names. The state notified no one! Early voting doesn't bring out the guntrumphumpers like the actual election day hassles. Plus, you can count on red states with high CV #'s to close all/most polls in the blue areas to make the danger, chaos & confusion even deeper. Avoid that with early voting, save your frustration and possibly your life.

I intend to vote the first day available for early voting so it's in before they take action because I believe that's what assmouth will do. He will do everything possible, no matter how immoral or illegal or anti-American, to keep us from voting so we have to vote at the earliest opportunity to ruin his plans to destroy the country.

#Vote #Bluetsunami

[soothsayer]

4. Yeah, early voting would rock the (ballot) box!