Voters Are Starting To Doubt Trump's Reelection Chances

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight

For months now, President Trump has trailed Joe Biden in the polls. First, it was only a 5- or 6-percentage-point gap, but since the middle of June, that margin has widened to anywhere from 8 to 9 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

But until very recently, voters didn’t seem all that convinced that Biden could win. In poll after poll, comparatively more voters said they thought Trump would win reelection in November. Now, though, that view may be shifting.

Over the past two and a half months, the share of voters who said they expect Trump to win has fallen from about 45 percent to around 40 percent in polling by The Economist/YouGov, as the chart below shows, while Biden’s share has slowly ticked up to where Trump’s numbers are. (Roughly a fifth of respondents still say they’re “not sure.”)



Trump’s decline may not seem that dramatic — and it’s not; it’s only a few points lower — but it’s notable because prior to June, he had trailed on this question only once since The Economist/YouGov first asked it in December.

[SWBTATTReg]

1. Dump the corrupt crook. All his game is, is stealing everything not nailed or bolted down. I ...

hope that they do a thorough and complete inventory of all federal assets in and out of the WH to make sure that the trump crooks and cronies haven't stolen anything.

[qazplm135]

2. 2016 spooked a lot of people

Too many treat it as something other than the fluke it was.

[genxlib]

3. Looks like that "Not Sure" guy is really gaining ground

If that trend continues, he could be ahead by November.

He would still be better than Trump