The shape of the Race (I was wrong about Santorum)

[cthulu2016]

Nothing much will coalesce around Santorum. Newt is far from finished. And, given Mitt's seeming inevitability, there is no reason for a primary voter to not "throw away his vote" on Paul.

Paul will do better in NH than I thought. He may end up within 10% of Mitt and will almost certainly be unchallenged for second place.

Santorum is dropping daily in NH. Santorum needed short-term momentum in NH to keep the anti-Romney thing going. He had to at least challenge Paul for 2nd. But he may well finish fifth in NH.

The race in SC may well be a two man affair - Romeny-Gingrich. PPP disagrees and thinks Santorum is best lined up to challenge Romney but I expect a total NH collapse will mark Santorum as damaged goods. (He may get the coveted DeMint endorsement, though.)

If Newt wins SC (quite possible) then Florida will be a nasty business.

Some background:

http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/50462.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/romney-up-in-south-carolina.html

[PDJane]

1. It won't matter.

Gingrich doesn't matter, Santorum doesn't matter.....it's a charade.

Might as well skip the whole damn thing and get Mitt where he can pretend to take the white house. Hell's bells, people, there are already irregularities in the voting in Iowa...in Mitt's favour, of course.

Sigh. Nothing to see here, just move right along...........

[Gman]

2. Santorrum was never more than the next pick that was not Romney

I think what we're beginning to see is the typical teabagger reaction to events that don't go their way, in this case Romney's inevitable nomination, and crawl back into the hole they came from, and conceding the nomination to Romney. To me that explains Romney's rise in SC. He'll continue to consolidate it all in the next several weeks and the freepers will again, just go away for now.

[quinnox]

3. It seems very fluid

There was a poll that showed Huntsman has risen all the way to second place, some were dubious of the poll, but I think things are up in the air.

I really don't know how this is going to all shake out. Yes I would agree Romney is still the likely nominee, but I think some more twists and turns still await and things could become interesting.

[Gman]

4. Huntsman has no advantage over Romney

be it message or especially resources. This is only a contest between the lunatic fringe and the sane represented by Romney. The lunatic fringe will not support Huntsman because he is not crazy.