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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy GOP Senators Are Sticking With Trump -- Even Though It Might Hurt Them In November
FiveThirtyEightMany members of Congress used to have local reputations independent of their parties, presenting themselves as fighters for local interests and dollars in Washington. Even if most voters hated Congress, they still liked their own representatives and senators.
But the long-term trends are nationalization (voters perceive their representatives through the lens of national and presidential politics) and polarization (voters see the parties as distinct and agree more with one side). Voters learn less about their own legislators and more about the president, in part due to decreasing reliance on local news. As a result, fewer voters split their tickets, voting for one partys candidate for president and the others for Senate or the House.
Democrats have faced the same problem in trying to distinguish themselves from their party. Voters recognized the independent streak of West Virginias Joe Manchin and Montanas Jon Tester in the 2018 midterms, but Missouris Claire McCaskill, North Dakotas Heidi Heitkamp and Indianas Joe Donnelly werent able to overcome the Republican lean of their states. Manchin went so far as to appear in ads showing him shooting at policies he disliked and proclaiming for me, its all about West Virginia. He won a state that Hillary Clinton lost by more than 42 points.
Nationalization makes it more difficult for senators to be seen as separated from their partys president and his priorities. So even if Republican senators do break with Trump, fewer voters now learn about it because they no longer see state-specific news. Since voters tend to assume that partisans vote like their parties, voters are often unable to perceive moderate senators divergent policy positions.
And legislators who do break with their party now face a risk of a primary challenger. McSally won her 2018 Republican primary1 facing two candidates closely tied to Trump: Joe Arpaio and Kelli Ward. In this years race to defend the seat she was appointed to, McSally this week fended off a primary challenge from Daniel McCarthy, who tried to build support from local pro-Trump groups.
JHB
(37,160 posts)1) Republicans started down this lockstep partisanship path decades ago. Conservatives were ready to attack and oust any pol who couldn't get with their program. Voting across the aisle was treated as fraternizing with The Enemy. Even before the 2008 primaries, Republicans were telegraphing that they'd vote in Soviet Politburo-grade lockstep to block initiatives by a Democratic president.
2) K o m p r o m a t
Lochloosa
(16,066 posts)In 2014, business and finance writer John Steele Gordon, writing in The American, an online magazine published by the American Enterprise Institute, said that " t)he main reason (for the Republican victory in 1994) was surely the Contract with America", in part because it "nationalized the election, making it one of reform versus business as usual. The people voted for reform." Gordon wrote that the Contract "turned out to be a brilliant political ploy. The contract tuned in to the American electorates deep yearning for reform in Washington, a yearning that had expressed itself in the elections of both (U.S. Presidents) Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan."[13] He described the election of 1994 as an "epic slaughter of the majority party in Congress" that "changed American politics for the foreseeable future", and that "[a]fter 60 years of Democratic dominance in American politics, the two parties were on a par." He concludes that "[t]he main reason was surely the Contract with America".[13]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_with_America
Walleye
(31,028 posts)maxrandb
(15,334 posts)Mike 03
(16,616 posts)fend for themselves during the pandemic. "They're on their own." She made those statements at a public event covered by news media, and then was surprised and furious when they were reported because she said they weren't intended for the public to hear. She was on Trump autopilot. Her mindset was solidly on repeating Trump talking points about throwing the responsibility to deal with COVID to the local municipalities, even if it made her look ridiculous and uncaring in her own state.
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(108,033 posts)Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)It is what it is.