The Daily Dread - Tracking the spread, 8/10/20

[calimary]

All times Pacific, source: Johns Hopkins/NBC News

At 8:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,883,048 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,066
Confirmed cases US - 5,065,512
Deaths US 163,662

At 10:04am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,078 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,542
Deaths US - 163,797

* THIS is the one to watch. We are on the verge of a number that WILL be a stand-out. It WILL be a major marker in the upward swing tracking. On a graph there will almost certainly be a 2,000,000-mark on the axis covering number-of-cases. The other axis would be time/date-related. That's a FUCKING BIG number, any way you slice it. And it's horrifying not only in and of itself, but AS a marker WHILE we continue on the way up beyond it. As in - how much higher are we going, with this? How many more? And the "how many more" even more horrifying a thought to ponder than is the number two-million that we will have hit and surpassed pretty doggone soon. I'd say in a day or two. Certainly this week.

[calimary]

1. Update -

At 8:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,883,048
Deaths worldwide - 732,066
Confirmed cases US - 5,065,512
Deaths US 163,662

At 10:04am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,078
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,542
Deaths US - 163,797


At 10:38am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,132
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,596
Deaths US - 163,797

Here's another case in which the case numbers go up, while the death rates remain unchanged. A wee comfort to take.

For the moment, anyway.

[calimary]

2. Update -

At 8:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,883,048 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,066
Confirmed cases US - 5,065,512
Deaths US 163,662

At 10:04am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,078
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,542
Deaths US - 163,797


At 10:38am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,132
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,596
Deaths US - 163,797


At 11:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,892,250
Deaths worldwide - 732,220
Confirmed cases US - 5,074,714
Deaths US - 163,816

At 11:30am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,894,188 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,234
Confirmed cases US - 5,076,652
Deaths US - 163,830

* I'm just looking at the last three digits of the two biggest numbers here, just to keep it simple. I'm no math major!

But here's my decidedly amateur thinking: what it tells me is that between roughly 8am, the last three digits in the worldwide cases was 048, and the latest reading at 11:30am - which grew to 188, I can kinda start getting an idea of the rate of increase. Then, expand - so we go from 19,883,xxx at 8am to 19,894,xxx by 11:30am. Or 883 to 894. And then what I watch for - is how soon we go from the 800s here, to the 900s.

Which then means flipping the 900s over to another 1,000.

Which then would take us from the 19,900s straight to that shudderingly dismal marker number 20,000 - or more accurately 20,000,000. Twenty million. Twenty million confirmed cases in the world.

And beyond.

Cuz you know that number won't freeze in place at 20,000,000.

[calimary]

3. Update -

At 8:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,883,048 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,066
Confirmed cases US - 5,065,512
Deaths US 163,662

At 10:04am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,078
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,542
Deaths US - 163,797


At 10:38am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,132
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,596
Deaths US - 163,797


At 11:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,892,250
Deaths worldwide - 732,220
Confirmed cases US - 5,074,714
Deaths US - 163,816

At 11:30am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,894,188 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,234
Confirmed cases US - 5,076,652
Deaths US - 163,830


At 12:10pm
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,896,989 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,258
Confirmed cases US - 5,079,453
Deaths US - 163,854

* Okaaaaaaaayyy... Shit - look how fast that number's growing. From this morning at 8am, through 11:30am - and then, just after noon. That's a difference of 13,941 confirmed cases (or, put another way, almost 14-thousand cases) - in less than four-and-a-half hours. That's just through this morning. That confirmed cases worldwide have increased by that much, and that quickly. Dare we add another 14-thousand cases in another four-and-a-half hours? That would put us at roughly 19,910,989 cases. By late afternoon. Like maybe 5pm-ish.

So the operating procedure for reasonable "guesstimation" would involve adding another 14-thousand cases, and another, and another - to see how many rounds of that you need, til you get to 20-million. It'll depend on when you start the clock.

For argument here, I'm starting the clock counting FROM the 19,896,989 figure at roughly noon today. From 19,896,989, I counted EIGHT additional rounds of 14-thousand cases to get to (or in this case beyond) 20-milllion. And remember, each of those 14,000 added cases is what we got in ONE four-and-a-half-hour interval. Eight intervals, times four-and-a-half-hours, is 36 hours. Which is a day-and-a-half. FROM NOON TODAY (Monday, August 10th). So 36 hours from then would put my bet on midnight tomorrow (Tuesday-into-Wednesday) - that we get to the super-dreadful sum in question - of 20-million cases worldwide. I'd guess we'd find ourselves there when we wake up, Wednesday morning, August 12th.

The exact number by then, according to the computations above would actually overshoot 20-million, within that assumed time interval: 20,008,989.

Wonder how far along into the 20-million we'll be by the time we wake up Wednesday morning, say 7am or 8am?

[calimary]

6. Update -

At 8:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,883,048 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,066
Confirmed cases US - 5,065,512
Deaths US 163,662

At 10:04am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,078
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,542
Deaths US - 163,797


At 10:38am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,132
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,596
Deaths US - 163,797


At 11:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,892,250
Deaths worldwide - 732,220
Confirmed cases US - 5,074,714
Deaths US - 163,816

At 11:30am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,894,188 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,234
Confirmed cases US - 5,076,652
Deaths US - 163,830


At 12:10pm
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,896,989 *
Deaths worldwide - 732,258
Confirmed cases US - 5,079,453
Deaths US - 163,854


At 2:09pm - domestic data only
Confirmed cases US - 5,080,033+
Deaths US - 163,861

[calimary]

10. Another update -

At 8:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,883,048
Deaths worldwide - 732,066
Confirmed cases US - 5,065,512
Deaths US 163,662

At 10:04am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,078
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,542
Deaths US - 163,797


At 10:38am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,891,132
Deaths worldwide - 732,201
Confirmed cases US - 5,073,596
Deaths US - 163,797


At 11:02am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,892,250
Deaths worldwide - 732,220
Confirmed cases US - 5,074,714
Deaths US - 163,816

At 11:30am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,894,188
Deaths worldwide - 732,234
Confirmed cases US - 5,076,652
Deaths US - 163,830


At 12:10pm
Confirmed cases worldwide - 19,896,989
Deaths worldwide - 732,258
Confirmed cases US - 5,079,453
Deaths US - 163,854


At 2:09pm - domestic data only
Confirmed cases US - 5,080,033+
Deaths US - 163,861


At 8pm
Confirmed cases US - 5,098,958
Deaths US - 164,022

[malaise]

4. Thanks sis

[calimary]

7. Hey sweetie!

Virtual

[malaise]

8. LOL

[Delphinus]

5. I appreciate

you doing this.

I stopped following this source and went to Worldometer and 1.3 Acres because there seemed to be such a lag from Johns Hopkins.

Don't know why, but I've been keeping a daily journal (early morning) for months now.

[calimary]

9. Thanks back atcha, Delphinus!

I stick with the sourcing I started with strictly for consistency's sake. Because I noticed CNN's tracking isn't exact on this, either. And Worldometer varies slightly, too.

I think, in general, all these sources are probably tracking fairly closely in direction, time, and case counts, though.