Biden has a 72% chance of winning, per fivethirtyeight.com (Trump's chance is therefore 28%.)

[Towlie]

Biden has a 72% chance of winning

That's not good enough! Trump has a 28% chance, which is better than the chance of rolling a pair of dice and getting a total greater than 8. We need to get to work!

[USALiberal]

1. Waiting for the Nate insults now. nt

[Towlie]

7. Predictit.org has it even closer.

Predictit.org is generally reliable because money is involved and users tend to set their own desires aside and bet upon their honest assessment of the probabilities. They currently have Biden at $0.58 and Trump at $0.43, which normalizes to 57.43% / 42.57%. That gives Trump a chance better than rolling a pair of dice and getting a total greater than 7.

[Dream Girl]

2. Naysayers here in 3...2...1

[lagomorph777]

3. That is kinda scary. We need more margin.

[sweetloukillbot]

4. Ticked up from yesterday...

It started at 71%

[Hassin Bin Sober]

5. In 2016 I had that sinking feeling when Nate Silver said trump had a 1 in 4 chance...

... Just like the Cubs chances of winning the World Series they just clinched.

The good news is thinking people know what a disaster trump is and Biden isn’t Clinton.

I just drove through Indiana and central Illinois. His devoted fans are not the least bit ashamed of supporting this clown. That’s the scary part. Huge trump signs everywhere.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Nate understands the future book aspect

There has to be some "play" in the number, given so far removed and therefore so many variables than can intervene. It's the same reason they'll give you seemingly favorable odds on a Kentucky Derby horse in January. He's got so many obstacles simply to get into the starting gate in same standing as currently.

If you took the same polling numbers and assigned them to election day itself, then the percentage would soar above 90% in Biden's favor.

The sloppy models are the ones that assume full normalcy and make it 95% likelihood months removed.

Also Nate's model understands the foundational nature of some of these states instead of throwing everything out in favor of current polling alone. You can't take Texas or Georgia or North Carolina or Arizona polling at 2020 face value without factoring in their typical voting tendencies. I realize that notion is rejected around here. But it's also the reason that people who reject the notion should never speculate. Bredesen was always the underdog in Tennessee senate 2018 despite leading every poll for months. But the bettors understood that the polling was not representative of Tennessee and would likely normalize later. Biden's percentage would be higher right now if those states I listed had any history of voting Democratic on the presidential level.

[BannonsLiver]

8. Trump enthusiasm seems low where I'm at

A blood red state. I recently drove through red states KS, Wyoming and Idaho and saw very very few Trump signs and bumper stickers. For reference, Trump’s biggest margin of victory was in Wyoming. Locally on streets I drive every day, I’ve seen a steady decline in trump bumper stickers. In my own neighborhood the guy around the block recently took down his giant Dump flag. The magic is gone for a lot of them.

[andym]

9. How ironic-- that's almost exactly the lead 538 gave Hillary clinton in 2016 --71%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ on election day.

However, there is far more uncertainty this far out-- let's see if Biden/Harris can widen their lead some. I think Joe will really take Trump apart during the debates and move the needle.