TX-03: Historically deep-red seat in the north Dallas burbs is in play

[RandySF]

We all knew that based on trends, it wasn’t going to be long before Texas was going to be a swing state. But almost no one expected it to be this cycle. Numerous high-quality polls this summer have shown the race for the Lone Star State within single digits—and some particularly tantalizing polls have actually shown Biden ahead of Trump. It’s enough that FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average of polls in Texas shows Trump with a wafer-thin lead of 47.1 percent to Biden’s 46.6 percent.

Even with these numbers, when FiveThirtyEight rolled out the initial edition of its 2020 Electoral College forecast, it gave Trump a 70 percent chance of winning Texas. Apparently this is due to Texas’ past history, since 51 percent of its projection comes from past voting patterns and demographics. Remember, Texas has gone Republican in all but one election since 1972, and since 1980 only the Clintons (Bill both times, and Hillary in 2016) have been able to keep the margin within single digits.

But if one House race in Texas is any indication, Nate’s projections may be a little too generous to Trump. That would be TX-03, in the wealthy northern suburbs of Dallas—Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, among other places. This district has been in Republican hands without interruption since a 1968 special election. This area was one of the first parts of the Metroplex to turn Republican.

Since then, it’s been the quintessential affluent suburban district in the South. That is, rock-ribbed Republican, with a heavy tint of social conservatism—some of the most politically active churches in the nation are based here. Its best-known congressman was Sam Johnson, a Korea and Vietnam vet who held the seat for 28 years, and for much of that time was a bomb-throwing conservative. He retired in 2018 and handed the seat to another Republican, Van Taylor.

But Cook Political Report believes the times may be changing a lot sooner than expected. As part of a tranche of ratings changes that were almost all in the Democrats’ direction, it moved TX-03 to “lean Republican.”



https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/8/14/1969389/-TX-03-Historically-deep-red-seat-in-the-north-Dallas-burbs-is-in-play-proof-Texas-is-a-swing-state

[tanyev]

1. Interesting. That's my district.

I was stunned when I saw that my precinct went blue in 2016. The houses look like typical middle class suburbs, but the I think the high number of tech workers creates a more diverse population.

I’ve gotten at least two push polls on this race already and the Democratic candidate wasn’t finalized until the runoff in late July.

[Stallion]

2. I'm in the Adjacent District including Parts of North Dallas where Collin Allred Won in 2018

... beating Pete Sessions who had a lot higher profile in Republican leadership. Let's do this