New CNN poll shows a VERY tight race.

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

?s=20

John Harwood
@JohnJHarwood
new CNN national poll:

Biden 50%
Trump 46%
5:12 PM · Aug 16, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
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Retweets and comments
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[tinrobot]

1. You gotta be effing kidding...

Jeez.

[Native]

65. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4%

[LiberalLoner]

2. How???? I truly don't understand the 46%.

[DavidDvorkin]

3. Ugh.

[onecaliberal]

4. I don't buy this for one second.

[SheltieLover]

18. This!👆

You beat me to it! 🤣👍

[agingdem]

20. It's crap...

it's all about the CNN target demographic...they want a horse race

[Farmgirl1961]

30. I hope it's crap!

But maybe we should imagine it’s not to keep us on our vigilant toes.

[agingdem]

37. we have to remain vigilant and confident...

no more fretting with every outlier poll, stupid birther garbage, or a Joe gaffe...we're going to win this thing...

[crickets]

58. "they want a horse race"

THIS 👆 and it burns me up. It's greedy and reckless and they need to quit it.

eta - and it lays the groundwork for perception that could call a tight vote into question. Outlier polls teased out like this are misleading and reckless.

[bdamomma]

10. me either

nope, this is propaganda.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

5. Oh, no.

Please, idiots out there... don't put your fellow idiot back in the WH!

Trump causes me far more anxiety than this pandemic.

[wcmagumba]

6. Just saw this...my main comment is WTF?

Is this the media doing its usual "horse race" BS? Biden has been 10-12 points ahead for weeks and all of a sudden, "its virtually tied"...I say bollocks.

[budkin]

14. It's just ONE poll

Stick with the averages.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. No. The media doesn't manipulate its polls.

There has never been any evidence of this from the major media networks (even FOX).

Nate Silver rates the CNN poll a B/C poll, though, so it's not as near reliable.

[Farmgirl1961]

8. That seems so absurd

I went to the CNN website and saw the article and read the article but it absolutely makes no sense. Where is this information coming from? How could find and go from a double-digit lead to something like a 4% lead in a matter of a day or two?

It smells fishy to me. Nonetheless we should be approaching this election as if it is extremely close in order to run it through the finish line.

[MoonRiver]

9. Outlier...n/t

[agingdem]

41. yup...

yesterday 12 points today 4 points??..ok...this election isn't Hillary/Comey sabotage October surprise...a trump October surprise..a rushed to market vaccine...didn't see that one coming..we have to fight but not fight because we're going to lose...fight because we're going to win...confident Dems..nice change...

[helpisontheway]

11. Maybe the working white that switched to Biden are racist and don't like a black person on the

ticket? Or maybe they don’t want a woman on the the ticket? See how they acted with Hillary.

[marlakay]

28. One of my friends actually said this to me

In a email today, worried about people accepting a black woman being so close to being president.

I was surprised she said it but her friends are a lot more moderate than me.

[budkin]

13. It's ONE poll

Both the other polls on 538 today had Biden up 9 and 10.

[Farmgirl1961]

17. Looks like 538 has it at +8 today n/t

[GoCubsGo]

15. Is this an online poll, by any chance?

[sarcasmo]

55. I'm betting Landline poll.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. This is a huge surge of support for Trump since their last poll, which had Biden leading 55-41.

The fact Biden's margin went +14 to +4 is not good. This is also the worst Biden poll from CNN. in terms of margin, since they started polling the race back in April, 2019 (the last time the margin was this close was 5 points in Dec., 2019).

It looks like Biden got zero bump from the Harris pick.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. It's possible...

The last poll was also an outlier for Biden, as it was one of only a couple that had him leading by 14+ points nationally.

Nate Silver grades the CNN poll a B/C, so, not very well received.

[SheltieLover]

23. So chump is more popular since usps TERRORISM?

Bullshit they are lying! 🤬

[Laelth]

24. Like I believe that.

Not a chance.



-Laelth

[Codeine]

26. It's not BS or propaganda,

it’s just an outlier poll. This happens, which is why we use aggregation and weighting models, and why we look at polls over a timespan rather than a single snapshot.

[budkin]

27. While CNN literally pushed it as breaking news

And a sign that Trump is making a strong comeback. It’s insanity.

[Music Man]

29. Exactly.

Probably an outlier. The majority of polls have Biden leading in the ballpark of 50-40, give or take (a couple others had it at 52-42 today). The margin of error in this poll puts it in line with the others.

There will be moments some polls will freak us out this year. Maybe the race is tighter than we realize, but let's stay calm, keep our eyes on the prize, and see this through.

[ProfessorGAC]

78. This!

An A rated poll showed 55:42 on the same day. The aggregated numbers show nearly a 10 point differential.
I question the methodology of this poll, given it's so different than the others.
They're C rated for a reason.

[RKP5637]

31. Makes no sense!!! If Americans really love someone like Trump, other countries look so much

better than the dystopia America will be headed for.

[jorgevlorgan]

32. Registered not likely voters

Intersting that the likely voters poll done at almost the same time by YouGov puts biden ahead by 10. It is encouraging that we do better among likely than registered voters. Average the two polls done after biden picked Kamala, and you still have ab average lead of 7. I hope it gets better!


Phone bank, donate, vote!!!!!

[Chichiri]

33. Might be an outlier. Keep watching the averages.

[JI7]

34. I hate the poll obsession .

[Indykatie]

35. 2 Other Polls This Week-End Were Biden +9 and +11 Now CNN is +4. How You May Ask?

The Likely Voter Methodology used can generate polls with vastly different results. All pollsters are probably understating the Dem energy around casting our ballots this year. I saw a poll that had 77% White participants recently. Does anyone think that the electorate will be 77% White on Nov 3. Pollsters should stick with "Registered Voters" rather than trying to guess what turn-out (Likely Voters) will look like on Nov 3.

Neither rain, snow, COVID-19 or slowed USPS can stop Dems from voting and have our votes counted this year.

[delisen]

38. Russia and Facebook weighing in nt

[crimycarny]

40. We need Gen-Z to vote

Large numbers of youth either didn't vote or weren't registered. Hillary didn't exactly inspire that age group. And whereas I don't think Biden is overly inspirational to the youth vote, I DO think they are very motivated to vote against Trump. At least that's what my daughter, a Gen-Z, tells me. TikTok and other "younger" type social media platforms have helped to make the youth aware of just how important it is to vote. Let's hope my daughter is correct.

[qazplm135]

42. It's one poll people

If the average gets that close then worry.

[linda52]

43. DOoooOooM!

What must we do Randy?

[still_one]

44. i do not follow national polls, but for those that do the WSJ gave Biden 9 point lead before the

convention

[Johnny2X2X]

45. Biden +11 and +9 in two other polls today

This CNN poll is weird. I don’t think it’s a close race.

[LenaBaby61]

64. A few things I noticed about this poll.

With all I say in mind, remember that Nate Silver rates CNN's polling at B/C.

We know about CNN's WILD points/shifts in ther polling. They're legendary.

Okay, the folks they surveyed in this poll are ONLY registered voters.

And here's how it breaks down:

31% dem

27% rep

41% indy.

They very much over-sampled I's., yet the last poll I saw about a month ago showed fatso was LOSING the Independent vote by at least 10 pts.

Wait, I's like seeing 170k and increasing numbers of folks DYING of covid even increasing in RED states, with no end in sight and with someone who doesn't give a shit that he's murdering people and goes golfing? I's want to be kicked out of their homes if they cannot pay their mortgage? 30 million folks (Some of course I's) don't like working or receiving unemployment, which means that they can't afford to pay their bills, eat or care for their kids and various other things like that?

MIND you, in the same poll I found 👇🏻👇🏻

How is it that CNN has 54% disapproving of the job fatass is doing and 42% approving, if the voting is 50-46?



While I call BULL SHIT on this CNN poll (Given it's weird methodology AGAIN, and the fact that they want/need ad buys, hence the horse-race narrative), I hope it wakes folks up on our side to really bear down and vote--even through covid, putin interfering, mailbox fixing by fatso et al.

There are some solid anchors over at CNN but Honestly, I haven't watched CNN regularly since the late Bobby Batista and Bernard Shaw were anchors, because the quality of their news reporting in some instances has gone down IMHO, and like I said they want a Horse-race narrative which is so disingenuous.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. because

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213918330

[madville]

47. Trump should be considered to have 5 extra points in every poll

It’s been studied and suggested that there are about 5 points worth of people for trump that are embarrassed to admit it, even to an anonymous pollster.

[Mike Nelson]

48. Well...

... a four point lead would mean a GE loss, for us. We have to figure in suppression, cheating and the Electoral College. Four points is not enough to get a Dem elected President, anymore. I wouldn't worry too much about this one poll, tho... just stay determined and GOTV.

[Phoenix61]

49. Good. Convince Twitler's supporters they don't

need to deal with the hassle of voting and fire the Dems the hell up. Works for me. I will crawl through broken glass to vote. I’ve got a 4 door mini-van and more than happy to taxi to and from the polls all day.

[RDANGELO]

50. They have Biden winning 43% of the white vote, but only leading by 4%. I don't buy it.

Hillary won 37% of the white vote. This is an outlier.

[JI7]

51. Making they are taking into account voter suppression of minorities

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. O won by 7 in 08 with 43% of the white vote and won by 4 in 08 with 39% of the white vote.

I'll follow the average.

[Awsi Dooger]

56. Biden leading only 46-45% among independents is the outlier

Independents haven't been that favorable to Trump since the very outset of his term

[tavernier]

53. Good!

No more “Nailed it!” until everyone understands that EVERY VOTE MATTERS!!!!!

[sarcasmo]

54. Landline polling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

76. The landline total respondents were 386 and there were 722 cell phone respondents

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/08/16/rel8a.-.2020.pdf


The problem lies elsewhere.

[sarcasmo]

81. Does it breakdown by region for the cell phone respondents?

[Cha]

57. Well that's how we have to FIGHT like we're

10-20 Points Behind.

All Hands On Deck! No time For Slackers!

[Binkie The Clown]

59. Trump's reaction to bad poll numbers is to declare them to be false. PLEASE...

let's not make the same mistake. We need to keep up the pressure. Keeping working to get out the vote. Keep working to inpsire people to vote. No matter what we do, we must do SOMETHING. what we must NOT, EVER do is deny that the polls are real. That's just too Trumpian a blunder.

[PSPS]

60. Must have horse race. Drama viewers advertising $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Squinch]

61. Nate Silver has been showing a slightly tightening race. Not like this, though.

[Wanderlust988]

62. CNN polls have too many wild swings, rendering them unreliable

One of the pollsters, I read, said that polls that typically have wild swings are less reliable than polls that don't have wild swings. Going from 14%-4% is what I would consider a wild swing. I would take the CNN poll with a grain of salt. The electorate in 2020 is not conducive to wild swings with two very known candidates.

I predict that after the convention, they'll have Biden up 17 or something crazy.

[Awsi Dooger]

67. Yes, CNN has had wild swings all the way back to 1988

I remember their daily tracking poll would be unveiled every afternoon on Inside Politics, or whatever they called it then. It was the precursor. Judy Woodruff and Bernie Shaw would rave about the wild shifts from day to day. Meanwhile I was laughing. The real world doesn't function that way.

[Wanderlust988]

70. I thinik the NBC and ABC polls are way more stable

and more of a barometer of the election. CNN is just too much sometimes with these wild swings lol.

[Awsi Dooger]

71. I agree

But as long as Biden stays at 50 range it's good news. A troubling sign would be if that dropped to 47ish and we were forced to rely on late undecideds.

Obama did win late deciders narrowly in 2012. But that is very rare for the incumbent. Bush in 2004 lost them by roughly 52-45 and Clinton lost them so badly in 1996 that the polling was heavily criticized, since the national margin was roughly 3 points lower than projected, basically 8 instead of 11.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

74. Bill Clinton was getting hammered on the bogus Chinese Satellites Sale at the end of the 96 race.

That deprived him of the popular vote majority he sought. He ended up with 49.3%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

75. They are on their third or fourth pollster since then.

[Awsi Dooger]

82. I know but the consistency is inconsistency

Maybe they prefer it that way

I do think the messaging needs to be tailored more to swing voters. LincolnProject stuff is well done but those voters aren't coming along anyway. The most negative Trump stuff excites our base but those voters are already cemented. I really wish Bloomberg would get going because his blend of emphasis within one spot is very effective toward the middle.

[Ferrets are Cool]

63. Even if it isn't, we need to treat this like it's real

[Iliyah]

66. True . .

Corporate media in kicking in .. .

Suppression at it's best, this year it will not win.

[Azathoth]

68. Probably an outlier, but the traditional GOP poll surge has begun

Republican voters vote. Democratic voters vote occasionally.

[rufus dog]

69. What is missing is the irony

The Orange ShitStain will need to go out and promote the hell out of CNN, an organization he has splattered shit on for years!

In a perfect world, I would hope CNN manipulated the poll, the ShitStain promotes them, then they come back in line. The ultimate trolling of the Troll.

[Iliyah]

72. 36% of POC is voting for him? .. .

this is false. Am I surprise that CNN would release a poll like this before the Democratic Convention? Nah . . .

Will I not be watching CNN or MSNBC concerning the convention.

[muriel_volestrangler]

79. Not sure where you got 36% from; the CNN poll says 31%

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/08/16/rel8a.-.2020.pdf (p.24, sampling error 7.5%)

which does still seem high. The nearest thing I can find is "in battleground states" (which is a fluid definition) 36% of PoC have a favorable opinion of Trump (p.32). The sampling error is 9.5%, so that's from a pretty small set.

[manicdem]

73. Optimism coming up

IBiden's lead will increase this week at the conventions. He and Kamala are going to have a speech that will knock it out of the park and motivate people to vote at the polls. He's also going to have to do a good job at the debates and crush Trump to maintain his lead.

We're still safe. Go Team Biden and Harris!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

77. + !3 in the A + Rated ABC-WAPO Poll

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213919571

[octoberlib]

80. CNN 's polls have been bouncing around like this

for months. In May Biden’s plus 15% , in June he’s plus 5%. In July he’s plus 14% It’s an outlier. Pay attention to the state polls.