Cases/deaths listed on worldometers has fallen dramatically

[captain queeg]

I know weekend numbers always dip but I just don’t trust some statistics. If they are real and things are actually falling the rethugs will push for kids to go to school and that will just set off another surge.

[Chainfire]

1. I suspect that two weeks after school starts

will spike the cases, and two weeks after that, the deaths. That is how it seems to have happened here in Fl. after the 4th of July. Then Labor day will probably cause another spike and who knows what will happen from Thanksgiving through the Christmas holidays.

I am very skeptical about the numbers coming out of Florida.

[Cosmocat]

7. As you should imo

I don't have time to run deaths per case for each state but Florida looks like an outlier.

[MoonlitKnight]

18. We might see Florida spike again

People are getting stupid again and not wearing masks or distancing.

[Ms. Toad]

2. Deaths haven't declined dramatically

Last weekend: 990, 534
This weekend: 1071, 522

More deaths this weekend than last.

The rolling 7-day average of deaths is going up (since Aug 7, for example, 1047, 1028, 1037, 1038, 1058, 1079, 1055, 1066, 1065)

That said, the number of cases is on the decline - for a couple of weeks now.

[live love laugh]

3. I wonder if the number of cases are down due to reduced testing.

The only concrete number is actual deaths IMHO.

[Ms. Toad]

12. The curves are pretty similar

Just about a 2-week lag between new cases and deaths.

[Klaralven]

22. The 7-day moving average of deaths seems to be the most reliable figure

However, it is a lagging indicator, since it takes a couple weeks for people to go from symptoms to death from Covid-19 and longer if they are put on a ventilator.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

8. Yep. Mask mandates have surely helped...

... and then we'll probably see a back-to-school surge.

[Ms. Toad]

13. Yup. I taught 89 students in person

6-hours a day, for the last 4 days (70 on two days; 19 on the other 2 days).

There's a mandatory mask policy, 6- social distancing. But I was constantly telling them to get their masks up over their noses.

In theory we close when there are 2 positive tests in our building. Shouldn't take long.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

15. Good grief. Stay safe in the meantime!

I know that you're super-vigilant about it!

[Ms. Toad]

17. I am.

I haven't been outside of the house without a mask since March (aside from a couple of outdoor restaurant meals - my daughter's 30th birthday being one of them) - and, until we went back to work on the 3rd, I'd only been out of the house about a dozen times.

I've got one more week sleeping separate from my spouse since I could not convince her not to go to a shower for our niece - at which they were serving a meal to parties sitting 8 to a table (including people not in our house). I didn't go - kept feeding her stories about all the COVID outbreaks related to showers and weddings. Didn't do any good - she still insisted on going. She came home insisting that everyone at her table was extremely cautious since they had someone who was immune compromised at home. By my standards, if you are being extremely cautious - you don't go to an indoor wedding shower at which they serve food. So I don't trust their definition of extremely cautious - and there were two other large, largely unmasked parties - sharing the same hallway to the bathroom.

So - one more week before I'm willing to share 8 hours of breathing the same air overnight.

I'm obsessive about handwashing. I don't touch any commonly touched items with bare hands.

It's kept the flu away for 9 out of the last 10 years - so the habits are pretty well-ingrained and effective.

Just made a couple more masks tonight so the hard-of-hearing folks can see my lips. Such fun.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

19. I've been surprised by the ideas of "cautious"...

... by some people in my family too.

They either never read the recommendations by epidemiologists that I had previously texted them, or they somehow thought they could relax because the virus would give them credit for the other times they took precautions. Lol, kidding. I think they just gave into temptations sometimes.

[Ms. Toad]

20. She has a diagnosed executive function deficiency

So some of it she really can't understand - and she's never been a rule follower.

[Blue_true]

9. I believe that we may be peaking on 7-day average deaths again.

It should start to drop steadily again, if school opening doesn’t cause it to go up again. We will keep declining until the next spike event - I don’t believe that a large segment of Americans have learned how to slow the spread, and we will pay for that idiocy.

[Ms. Toad]

14. The slow down is due to the mandated mask order.

"Pretty please, with sugar on top" wasn't getting us anywhere - this slow down follows a number of jurisdictions mandating mask wearing. Lift the order and it will be back up, again.

[Crunchy Frog]

4. This is completely typical for Sundays.

And usually Mondays too. It's just an artifact of information collection.

[LuvLoogie]

5. Chicago Public Schools is going all remote for first quarter at least.

It's not an Illinois mandate yet. The Catholic schools in Chicago are starting hybrid. So Much of this is dependent on equipment and bandwidth. Chromebooks are the most popular device being provided for student use, but the funding is scattered and there are eight week lead times on equipment orders

[captain queeg]

6. My son is going back to college in Sept. the word now is large classses online th

Smaller classes will be broken up and staggered. But I don’t think they are real sure yet. My ex and my sister are both teachers and also doesn’t sound like things are decided. Most kids around here don’t go back till after Labor Day.

[BannonsLiver]

10. Weekend numbers are meaningless.

[spanone]

11. trump controls all the USA numbers.

He took the CDC out of the chain.

[Ms. Toad]

16. No he didn't.

He took the CDC out of the chain for hospital utilization - not for cases and deaths. Two different sets of numbers.

[muriel_volestrangler]

21. There are thousands of numbers on worldometers; which ones are you talking about?

State numbers; numbers for the whole of the USA (or other countries)? Fallen compared to when - the previous weekend, 2 weeks ago, or what?