The swing states..where it will happen.. read and enjoy

[Thekaspervote]

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[budkin]

1. Still calling it now... Biden will win Texas

I can feel it this year.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. That would defy ideological logic

Texas has reported 40+% conservatives in every exit poll I have ever seen, dating to 1992 when I began following political math. It has been as high as 46% and still reached 43% in 2018.

The Democratic nominee hasn't won a state reporting above 37% conservatives since Bill Clinton won his home state of Arkansas in 1996, when it was 41% conservatives and 13% liberals yet Clinton won. Obama never carried a state with more than 37% conservatives.

I just think we're getting a bit carried away with optimism and the recent trend in the state and ignoring the incredibly small margin for error. I suppose it is possible Biden could pull out a squeaker in Texas if he won the national popular vote by 8-9 points. But overall I don't want to rely on those 40+% states. North Carolina was 43% conservatives in 2016 yet we wasted time and tens of millions.

Florida has been between 33-36% conservatives in every presidential year since my records begin in 1992. There is absolutely no reason we can't win that state, other than we don't make nearly the sustained effort the GOP does. It is hardly enough to hire a Hispanic coordinator in August and try to cram things within the final few months.

[RDANGELO]

9. I'ts Trump.

He such an asshole, even some conservatives won't vote for him. That's why there is such a difference between the senate race and the race between Biden and Trump.

[Kamala4TheWin]

4. I'm feeling it too

I have strong feelings about Arizona and Florida 🤞🏾🤞🏾

Beto came within 3% of LyingTed

[peggysue2]

8. If Biden is within shooting range of Texas . . .

we're looking at a frigging blowout. Which is what we need to circumvent the obvious cheating that the Trumpsters are engineering.

That being said, we need to have the critical states locked in first. Right now things look good but we cannot let up.

Seventy-eight days and counting. Oh my.

[Midnight Writer]

2. I don't see how Trump can hold up with over one thousand Covid deaths a day and his silly responses.

At this rate, there could be three hundred thousand dead by Election Day. And with winter coming on, that rate may be trending upward.

[napi21]

5. The way things are going now , for sure we'll hit 300,000 by December 1st. I seriously doubt by Nov

unless there's a real bad downturn. Sadly, the next increase in infections will be children because Dumb Ass insists on getting the schools open, but the bright side is, thank God, children's cases do not result in deaths! I don't think he's going to lose because of Covid though. He's mostly ignored the senior citizens homes, and his current JA idea is to suspend the P/R tax and eliminate it if he's reelected. Guess what? The seniors KNOW that tax funds SS! I think that's what's going to fry his chances.

I don't know what he's thinking. He's already lost women. Likely never had the young voters. Now he's tossing the seniors under the bus. MAYBE he really knows he doesn't stand a shot so he's planning to destroy everything he can before he gets tossed out?

[Kamala4TheWin]

6. Biden has to crush him in the first debate

Early voters will be out in full force after that. No need for 3 debates

Republicans have lowered expectations so much that Biden can win by just doing what he did with Bernie

[Cha]

7. Steady on Biden & Kamala!

[ChoppinBroccoli]

10. If Biden Wins All The States He SHOULD Win..........

.........and in that list, I include Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania............then he wins. He doesn't even NEED Florida or Ohio to win. And it looks like he's going to win most of those swing States (I think he's got Florida and North Carolina for sure, and I think he may have Arizona--I'm embarrassed that my home State of Ohio is so close, but I think he'll pull off Ohio too).

The ONLY way Trump can win is he has to keep Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and get most of the other swing States too. He's so far down in Michigan that it's been rumored that he's pulling out. And he's down big in Pennsylvania too. I just don't see how he can possibly win.

This attack on the mail has me worried, but I really think that Joe's margin of victory is going to be so huge that none of Trump's attempts to steal the election (or have the Russians hack it) are going to dent it enough to alter the inevitable outcome.

[smirkymonkey]

11. K&R