Translation of fivethirtyeight's "Biden is favored to win the election":

[Towlie]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Since this calculation is based upon polls, at best it reflects how people intend to vote. This means that in an imaginary parallel universe where a fair election takes place with no voter suppression or fraud, Joe Biden would be favored to win. So please don't be fooled into thinking that this constitutes a prediction of the actual result.

Craps probability calculations are meaningless when the dice are loaded.