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doc03

(35,349 posts)
3. How is he still 48% on the economy when the unemployment rate is double when he
Mon Aug 17, 2020, 04:03 PM
Aug 2020

took office and higher than at the peak of the Great Recession? The MSN needs to point this fact out.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
6. Incumbents receive enormous benefit of a doubt
Mon Aug 17, 2020, 04:21 PM
Aug 2020

It is incredibly difficult to oust an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. That's why I'll take any victory of any margin. Running up the score means squat.

Pre 2020 I always predicted that Trump's approval would rise to 45% or higher on election day, due to that situational advantage and the fact that Hispanics always demonstrate strange loyalty to the incumbent. You can see how it is playing out now, despite coronavirus and George Floyd. Minus those two variables Trump would likely be well above 45% already.

I realize handicapper mode isn't appreciated around here, as opposed to cheerleader mode where Trump is going to resign tomorrow or not be renominated. But the reality is that we still need something to break in our favor to drop Trump's approval again and cement this thing. Otherwise it is going to be tight.

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