BTRTN 2020 Presidential State-by-State Snapshot: Biden Continues to Rule
Born To Run The Numbers provides its up-to-the minute summary of the status of the Presidential race, focusing on the most recent polling in all battleground states. This is not a prediction, but rather a “snapshot” of where the race stands right now, and how it might turn out if Election Day were held today.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-presidential-state-by-state.html
Excerpts: "Since our last report in early July, the dynamics of the race are remarkably unchanged.Joe Biden continues to lead Trump in most swing states, and is running neck-and-neck with him in the others; Trump does not have a statistically significant lead in any swing state, including those he won rather easily in 2016 such as Ohio and Texas...
"According to our BTRTN model, if the elections were held today, Biden would have an 81% chance of winning the presidency, nearly identical to the 82% probability we saw in June...Public attitudes towards Trump’s handling of the coronavirus remain overwhelmingly negative, and continue to fall, now running 58% approving to 39% disapproving, according to fivethirtyeight.com. Trump’s overall approval rating remains stuck in a losing zone, in the low 40% range, where no president has ever won reelection. And his low standing in national and swing state polls versus Joe Biden remains unchanged...
"But for all of the drama in the news, the net effect of all of those polls on our ratings was minimal. Biden continues to lead in eight of the 14 swing states by healthy margins, and those states alone comprise 97 electoral votes, more than enough to put him over the 270 mark required to win.. Biden leads by +6-7 points in each of the major “flipped” states in 2016, states that Barack Obama carried in 2012 but Hillary Clinton lost in 2016: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And the other two states that Trump flipped, Iowa and Ohio, are toss-ups.