No Sitting President Was As Far Behind As Trump Going Into The Conventions

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Welcome to the FiveThirtyEight Election Update for Monday, August 24! As of 5 p.m. on Sunday, Joe Biden had a 73 in 100 chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, while President Trump had a 27 in 100 chance. Biden also has a hefty lead in our forecast of the national popular vote: 53 percent to 46 percent.

This isn’t all that different from when we launched the forecast earlier in August, as Biden’s lead has been steady for months. But with the Republican National Convention starting today — and the Democratic National Convention having ended last Thursday — we have entered a traditionally volatile period for presidential campaigns. So we wanted to pause and take stock of where previous races stood ahead of the conventions.

We don’t have retroactive data on what our forecast — with all its bells and whistles — would have said in past elections, but we have calculated what our polling averages would have said just before the first party convention. (You can download this data on our GitHub page if you want to play around with it yourself.) And based only on the polls,1 Biden led nationally by an average of 8.0 percentage points last Sunday (the day before the Democratic convention began). That was the second-biggest lead for any Democratic candidate heading into the convention period since at least 1968, and the largest for any candidate since 1996,Undoubtedly, it’s a bullish sign for Biden to be this far ahead of Trump. In fact, since 1968, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the first convention.

However, before we get too carried away, the size of Biden’s pre-convention lead is unlikely to hold. After all, two other presidential contenders led by margins similar to Biden’s: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000, but by November their leads had all but evaporated. Carter only narrowly beat Gerald Ford by about 2 points nationally, while Bush won the most highly contested election in modern times, which took the U.S. Supreme Court to sort out. when Bill Clinton led by about 15 points.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-sitting-president-was-as-far-behind-as-trump-going-into-the-conventions/

[onecaliberal]

1. I hear you but this is not the same.

There was no economic collapse because the current occupant failed to respond to a pandemic that is killing thousands daily. And the current occupant is only there because he allowed a foreign hostile government to steal the election.