Update: Now Cat 4 Laura is a deadly hurricane - get out of the way and stay safe

[malaise]

Last edited Wed Aug 26, 2020, 04:10 PM - Edit history (2)

[Cha]

1. Oh god.. how scary.. I hope they have time

to completely evacuate Safely!

[malaise]

4. Laura passed north of us and we had heavy rain for almost two full days

parts of the island are still flooded and roads and bridges were seriously damaged. There was serious flooding in Cuba. People died in DR and Haiti and it was still a Tropical Storm in the Caribbean. This isn't just horrific wind now - there is an awful lot of rain.

[Cha]

8. Glad it missed you! Sorry about the people & the land

Hurricane Laura hit & going to hit.

The whole Hawaiian chain of Islands dodged Hurricane Douglas last month.. the Weathercasters said they've never seen a Hurricane get so close but missed it completely.. except for the aftermath of heavy winds & rain.

But we have to be all prepared like it would hit.. Most of us were here for the Big One that hit in '92.. so we lived it.

[malaise]

9. This looks like Louisiana

from the latest forecast - good grief almost fifteen years to the day Katrina hit them

[Cha]

11. Aw.. that's right! My sister & family were going to visit

New Orleans from New York and took a plane down there & then had to turn around and get the hell outta there!

[Dustlawyer]

2. Evacuated to Buda Texas hoping my house will be there when I return!

I want to thank you malaise for your kind words to me during hurricane Harvey. May need some more after Laura. All my family, friends and co-workers have evacuated so it is just the property damage we have to worry about. It is hard to watch this thing gaining strength when they keep raising the strength of this cane from 1 to 2 to 3 and now possibly 4 when it hits.

[malaise]

5. You sure have had some rough years with hurricanes

I didn't think this would strengthen beyond Cat 2 because it was moving so fast but our waters are so hot these days that all bets are off.

Stay safe

[malaise]

10. Looks like your homes will be OK

Louisiana will be devastated again

[canetoad]

3. I honestly didn't think

This one would reach hurricane status. Marco is gone. Galveston's gonna get hit again.

[malaise]

6. I started singing Galveston since yesterday morning

This is going to be very bad. Like you I didn't think it had time to strengthen.

[Lochloosa]

12. It increased 40kts in 24 hrs. Rapidly intensify is becoming the norm

[malaise]

13. Climate change will kill us

See how fast the oil folks evacuated

[malaise]

25. Baclava thought it would strengthen

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213967498

[duforsure]

7. Everyone in its path take precautions and leave,

If you've ever seen, or been in a bad hurricane don't take the risk and leave. This one is bad now, and could get much worse. Be safe, they say it may become a cat 4 before it hits land.

[NutmegYankee]

19. It depends on where one lives.

If you are not surrounded by trees or at risk of flooding, it's OK to ride them out. I've ridden out several over the years, mostly down on the Southern coast.

[malaise]

20. Cat 3's and Cat 4's?

depends on your home structure. I stayed home for Cat 3 Gilbert.

[NutmegYankee]

22. Cat 3.

The house structure is typically rated for 130 MPH, so a direct hit from a Cat 4 would force me out. But that is usually a small area and most of the winds are well below that "central" speed. I had an eye pass over me once after the storm traveled right up Currituck Sound, but these days living in New England the risks are way lower. Only real issue up here is trees come down everywhere, so I took down my "house killers".

[dem4decades]

14. 10+ foot storm surge? Evacuate if you are there. That's the only safe thing to do.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

15. Holy cow! Check out the storm surge and rainfall predictions.....

8/26/20, 7am EST:





Best wishes for everyone in this monster's path. Looks like tremendous flooding over a very large area, even up our way in KY. This damn thing may still be a hurricane all the way up to Shreveport.

Special thoughts out to Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Lake Charles and the entire Sabine basin.


KY......... .........

[malaise]

18. Get out of the way

This will be deadly

[malaise]

26. Now 125mph

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisian

[Roy Rolling]

16. Lake Charles

It has a bullseye on them, God help them. 110mph winds at midnight tonight (forecast)

In New Orleans, we’ve had three days of sunshine. 200 miles west, all hell is about to break loose. Gulf water is like a hot bathtub in late August, this is a major event for them and the oil refineries along the path.

We are ready to send help from New Orleans. We remember the help from others during Katrina, and remember what it’s like to have rock-stone as my pillow.

[malaise]

17. Stay safe

[jmbar2]

23. The Cajun Navy!

Remember you guys well - former Houstonite, now Oregon. But all my family's still there.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

21. Imagine "alternative weather" reports in which..,

... the meteorologists proclaim it's all a hoax, and people don't need to worry about the so-called hurricane.

"Ooh! That's the kind of positive-thinking weather reporting that I like!"

[malaise]

24. Well he tried it with a sharpie last year

but you raise a very good point and I'm sure 180,000 people won't be killed by Laura

[Roy Rolling]

27. ETTD

Cameron Parish is where Trump visited in May 2019 to campaign against out Democratic Governor. Trump’s candidate lost and now the Cameron LNG facility is in the direct line of the eye.

I’m just glad he didn’t campaign here in New Orleans. 😅

[W_HAMILTON]

28. Just yesterday morning they were predicting it would MAYBE be a Category 1 at landfall...

...now they are predicting it to be a major hurricane? Jeez. I know predictions are just that, but the way they were talking just yesterday made it sound like this one was more likely to peter out rather than strengthen into a potentially devastating major hurricane.

[malaise]

29. It is already a major hurricane - Cat 3

but it is predicted to be Cat 4

[Baclava]

31. Never trust a weatherman to tell you which way the wind blows

[LisaL]

34. It's category 4 now.

[Baclava]

46. At this point it don't matter what they call, its gonna hit hard

Big storm surge is a dangerous thing u can't hide from, hope everybody paid attention and got out!

[LisaL]

35. Maybe you are confusing Laura with Marco?

Marco is the hurricane that went puff.
Laura is now category 4.

[W_HAMILTON]

36. Nope, it was Laura.

Marco had already dissipated at that point, I believe.

They were predicting that Laura would strengthen but then seriously weaken (down to a Category 1) by the time it made landfall; I remember this because I was thinking that it was strange that it would weaken so quickly like that (especially given how warm the waters were), but given what Marco did, I assumed that maybe they were predicting the same sort of weakening to happen to Laura.

[LisaL]

43. Well, it would appear that whoever "they" were, they were wrong.

It rapidly intensified to category 4.

[W_HAMILTON]

45. Yeah, most definitely.

But I believe they were just using the typical models, so I would think most everyone would have been wrong about it, but who knows. I don't really much many channels that would have had an update on that hurricane outside of MSNBC and CNN, so it must have been one of their weather guys.

I hope everyone in the affected areas will do their best to take cover and stay safe. I hope they have enough time (and resources and/or help) to evacuate, since if they heard the same reports as me, they were probably taken aback by how quickly the models changed.

[Baclava]

30. She's a real doozy

[hatrack]

32. Now Category 4 as of 1:00 PM CDT Intermediate Advisory - Max Sustained 140 952 Mb

000
WTNT33 KNHC 261742
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LAURA HAS BECOME AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight.
On the forecast track, Laura will approach the Upper Texas and
southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland within
that area tonight. The center of Laura is forecast to move over
northwestern Louisiana tomorrow, across Arkansas Thursday night, and
over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220
km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible this afternoon, and Laura is
forecast to remain a category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes over land.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Tropical-storm-force winds have reached the coast
of Louisiana and an observing site at Eugene Island recently
measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph
(104 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 952 mb (28.11 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This storm
surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall makes landfall tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are moving onshore of the coast of Louisiana within the
tropical storm warning area and are expected to reach the coast in
the hurricane warning area later this afternoon or evening.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban
flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and
minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura will produce rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
mid-Mississippi and portions of the Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee
Valleys. This rainfall may lead to localized flash and urban
flooding and rapid rises on small streams.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the entire U.S. Gulf
coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern
Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 200 PM CDT. These
can be found under WMO header WTNT63 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCUAT3.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[LisaL]

33. Laura has reached category 4.

"Category 3 Hurricane Laura, we hardly knew ya. The storm rocketed to a Category 4 hurricane as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. This is up from the 125 mph winds it had at 11 a.m. Eastern."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/26/hurricane-laura-updates-texas-louisiana/

[malaise]

37. Thanks - updated

[lpbk2713]

38. Anyone know of any real time web cams in the area?

This storm is going to kick some ass.

[malaise]

41. Two here - you can google where you want to see

https://www.galveston.com/we

https://www.livebeaches.com/city/cameron-la/

Of course everything will change once those waves knock out the cameras and/or the power

[Baclava]

47. Cool, thx, I was just gonna look, why do the big ones always hit around dark?

I sat through 12 hrs of howling wind during Ivan, a Cat 3, it was bad!

[Castiel]

39. Lake Charles is expected to get 15-20 foot storm surge.

That will wipe out the entire town.

I hope everyone there evacuated.

[LisaL]

40. They didn't have a lot of time.

I don't think many models were predicting Laura to get to category 4.

[Castiel]

44. Weather channel has been predicting a major hurricane for a few days now.

Maybe not a Cat 4, but definitely a Cat 3.

[malaise]

42. It sure will take out that bridge

which is 13ft high