University of Dayton reports 89 new COVID-19 cases. What's wrong with this picture?

[OilemFirchen]

It's not surprising, nor unique, that a college or university is reporting significant new COVID cases. It is interesting, however, that now that we have another defined subset of the population to measure, we can determine just how accurate state and nationwide reporting is.

Here's the article.

The University of Dayton reported 89 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday, bringing the institution’s total number of active cases to 240.

Since Saturday, the university has reported a combined 213 new cases, with the numbers increasing each day.

U.D. has an enrollment just shy of 12,000 students. Montgomery County, OTOH, has a population of 531,687. If you click on Montgomery County at the Ohio DOH COVID Dashboard, you'll find that, since (and including) Saturday, they report a total of 71 new cases (confirmed and probable).

We know that there is a disconnect between official case counts and reality, but this is a bit gobsmacking. Has anyone else done a similar analysis in their community?

[lapfog_1]

1. many students that live in dorms especially

will list their parents home address.

So it depends on whether the data filed on positive test uses the zip of the testing facility or the zip of the persons home address.

[OilemFirchen]

2. That makes sense.

However, it seems likely that comparable numbers are coming from Montgomery County residents attending schools out of the area. Right?

[gristy]

4. Really no reason that the numbers are necessarily comparable.

You make a good point otherwise, though.

[OilemFirchen]

5. I agree. Just a SWAG.

Think I'll hold off further comment until a few weeks after the other two largish colleges reopen. I don't expect their numbers to be significant, as one is a commuter-only college, and the other is a mostly-commuter university.

If, however, they report cases not reflected in the county numbers, I'll return and note the more obvious discrepancy.

[Midnightwalk]

3. It's the number if cases in the county that is off

At least I think it is.

Montgomery county has something like 45 times the number of people in the university and one third the number of cases.

Maybe students are being much lax in social separation or not interacting much with others in the county.

But ~200/12000 is a lot bigger than ~70/500000

Agree that the 70 may not include the 200 because of the home address issue.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. Just give it time.

There will be more and more and more each day.

Plus, a small number of students will actually get sick. Some of them may get very sick. It's possible that a few will die. I hope not, but it's going to take dead college students for some people to pay attention.