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If somebody is good at statistics (I'm not) (Original Post) Horse with no Name Aug 2020 OP
You mean "all cause mortality?" hlthe2b Aug 2020 #1
Yeah. That should gather all of the deaths Horse with no Name Aug 2020 #2
I'd like a comparison between March to now and the six months before... brush Aug 2020 #3
Here is the UN chart for US 1950-2020 csziggy Aug 2020 #4
Thank you Horse with no Name Aug 2020 #6
Baby Boomers kurtcagle Aug 2020 #8
*If* I understand the point of your query correctly, then let me say that RockRaven Aug 2020 #5
Yes! Horse with no Name Aug 2020 #7
The New York Times had an article a couple weeks ago about excess deaths. Make7 Aug 2020 #9
Deaths above avg in G7 countries: EX500rider Aug 2020 #10

csziggy

(34,136 posts)
4. Here is the UN chart for US 1950-2020
Fri Aug 28, 2020, 10:12 PM
Aug 2020
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

There is a chart of the per capita death which shows that the death rate was dropping until 2008 but has been going back up since.

Horse with no Name

(33,956 posts)
6. Thank you
Fri Aug 28, 2020, 10:22 PM
Aug 2020

I want to look at this.
In a casual conversation, a friend said that deaths are up 53% from last year.
In one of our surrounding communities, they are raising hell because of the Covid dump. Not because those people had Covid, but because it made them look bad.

kurtcagle

(1,603 posts)
8. Baby Boomers
Fri Aug 28, 2020, 10:36 PM
Aug 2020

There were three major factors influencing death rate starting in 2008 - the oldest of the baby boom generation was hitting retirement age, the birth rate began a significant drop that has continued for twelve years, and we had the Great Recession. This has had the effect of skewing the mortality rates higher simply because the boomers made up a much larger overall percentage of the population, effectively inverting it. The previous generation was fairly small, as was the following one, so the effect was more pronounced. Average age at death also plateaued around the same time at around 77 for men and 79 for women. The oldest boomers are around 75 at this point. On the other hand, the variance in the age of death has been steadily increasing, with more centenarians alive relative to the total population than ever, but also more people dying in their 60s.

The death rate will continue accelerating until about 2035, then will start to slow down, reaching a peak in 2050. This is already baked into the cards, though Covid-19 may end up pushing these dates forward by anywhere from two to five years. there's a bit of a dip afterwards because the GenXers were the mirror opposites of the Boomers - their population is much smaller relative to those born between 1943 and 1961 (I've made arguments elsewhere why I think these dates are more accurate).

We're now in a corrective period - by 2050, US population will actually be considerably more bottom-heavy than it is now, which is typical for age demographic distributions.

RockRaven

(14,972 posts)
5. *If* I understand the point of your query correctly, then let me say that
Fri Aug 28, 2020, 10:18 PM
Aug 2020

Yes, yes, absolutely yes, the true death toll of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA will ultimately only be known by measuring "excess deaths" because of the purposeful, knowing, malicious obstruction of testing, data collection, data compilation by Trump and other Republicans.

And the gulf between current excess deaths and recognized Covid-19 deaths is large. Back when the Covid death number was about 150K the excess death number was 200K+ compared to recent prior years. With the ongoing sabotage of testing/reporting data in Repuke-controlled states like FL and TX and others, that gap is probably going to widen in time.

Make7

(8,543 posts)
9. The New York Times had an article a couple weeks ago about excess deaths.
Fri Aug 28, 2020, 10:57 PM
Aug 2020
...

Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.

As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by other causes linked to the pandemic.

When the coronavirus took hold in the United States in March, the bulk of deaths above normal levels, or “excess deaths,” were in the Northeast, as New York and New Jersey saw huge surges.

The Northeast still makes up nearly half of all excess deaths in the country, though numbers in the region have drastically declined since the peak in April.

...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html


The CDC has a page with statistics:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


Our World in Data has put together some info on organizations also collecting data:

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
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