General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIf somebody is good at statistics (I'm not)
It would be interesting to know the mortality rate from the Clinton presidency to present
hlthe2b
(102,291 posts)National Center for Health Statistics (part of CDC) would be the source.
Horse with no Name
(33,956 posts)That they disagree are related to Covid
brush
(53,785 posts)covid.
csziggy
(34,136 posts)There is a chart of the per capita death which shows that the death rate was dropping until 2008 but has been going back up since.
Horse with no Name
(33,956 posts)I want to look at this.
In a casual conversation, a friend said that deaths are up 53% from last year.
In one of our surrounding communities, they are raising hell because of the Covid dump. Not because those people had Covid, but because it made them look bad.
kurtcagle
(1,603 posts)There were three major factors influencing death rate starting in 2008 - the oldest of the baby boom generation was hitting retirement age, the birth rate began a significant drop that has continued for twelve years, and we had the Great Recession. This has had the effect of skewing the mortality rates higher simply because the boomers made up a much larger overall percentage of the population, effectively inverting it. The previous generation was fairly small, as was the following one, so the effect was more pronounced. Average age at death also plateaued around the same time at around 77 for men and 79 for women. The oldest boomers are around 75 at this point. On the other hand, the variance in the age of death has been steadily increasing, with more centenarians alive relative to the total population than ever, but also more people dying in their 60s.
The death rate will continue accelerating until about 2035, then will start to slow down, reaching a peak in 2050. This is already baked into the cards, though Covid-19 may end up pushing these dates forward by anywhere from two to five years. there's a bit of a dip afterwards because the GenXers were the mirror opposites of the Boomers - their population is much smaller relative to those born between 1943 and 1961 (I've made arguments elsewhere why I think these dates are more accurate).
We're now in a corrective period - by 2050, US population will actually be considerably more bottom-heavy than it is now, which is typical for age demographic distributions.
RockRaven
(14,972 posts)Yes, yes, absolutely yes, the true death toll of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA will ultimately only be known by measuring "excess deaths" because of the purposeful, knowing, malicious obstruction of testing, data collection, data compilation by Trump and other Republicans.
And the gulf between current excess deaths and recognized Covid-19 deaths is large. Back when the Covid death number was about 150K the excess death number was 200K+ compared to recent prior years. With the ongoing sabotage of testing/reporting data in Repuke-controlled states like FL and TX and others, that gap is probably going to widen in time.
Horse with no Name
(33,956 posts)Exactly. Thank you.
Make7
(8,543 posts)Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.
As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by other causes linked to the pandemic.
When the coronavirus took hold in the United States in March, the bulk of deaths above normal levels, or excess deaths, were in the Northeast, as New York and New Jersey saw huge surges.
The Northeast still makes up nearly half of all excess deaths in the country, though numbers in the region have drastically declined since the peak in April.
...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html
The CDC has a page with statistics:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Our World in Data has put together some info on organizations also collecting data:
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid