Trump is the president of the loud minority, not silent majority

[highplainsdem]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/29/politics/trump-voters-analysis/index.html

CNN)I've spent a lot of time talking about the importance of the 50% mark for former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden, unlike Hillary Clinton four years ago, is consistently hitting and exceeding 50% in the polls, which means President Donald Trump can't just count on late deciders to put him over the top.
Trump, on the other hand, has never reached 50% in either his approval rating or against his Democratic opponents in any live interview poll during the last five years.

-snipping paragraph mentioning there's a chance Trump will finally hit 50%-

But if this streak continues for Trump, he will be the first president to never reach 50% in any live interview poll in either his first successful campaign for president, approval rating or his reelection bid.
This presidential cycle alone, there have been over 90 live interview national polls since 2019. The highest Trump has gotten in any of these polls against Biden has been 48% of the vote. The average has been 42%.

Compare that with Biden's average of 50.3%. Biden's hit 50% in a majority of the polls. Unlike Trump, who has slipped below 40% a number of times, Biden's never dropped below 40%.

-snip-

[kentuck]

1. The Trumpublicans are very confident they are going to win.

They believe Trump will pull out a victory in the end.

[paleotn]

3. These are the same people...

who believe Covid-19 is a hoax, Russia is our friend and Donnie isn't stealing from them. I have no confidence in what they think on virtually anything.

[BannonsLiver]

2. Ive really come to like Harry Enten

He used to work with Silver at 538. But unlike Silver he actually SAYS something when he writes and talks without the half dozen or so qualifiers Silver feels the need to use every time he tries to say something

[paleotn]

6. The majority of folks don't understand error...

in forecasts, polls, etc. Maybe Silver's just has a hard to explaining that to the general populace and it comes off as qualifiers. I've been accused professionally of the same. Folks, even educated folks, tend to confuse forecasting and fortune telling. The question isn't whether I'm right or wrong. The question is, how wrong am I.

[BannonsLiver]

8. It's about his communication style rather than the science

He’s not very good on the communication side IMO. I have no opinion on how good he is at the science side.

[paleotn]

13. Yep. Communicating complex inferences from data is a gift....

I struggle with it too.

[MineralMan]

4. The Loud, Obnoxious Minority

[highplainsdem]

10. +1,000,000

[Iliyah]

5. The silent majority is . .

Putin and other foreign countries trolling the USA . . . and propaganda to instill such.

The cult is loud and violent and shithole is the head of it, the propaganda of an silent majority purpose - to steal and cheat by referencing to it.

Suppression of vote is on steroids which verifies that in a fair election, the republicans lose across board.

Again, peaceful protesters are called thugs but gun toting militia are patriotic.

There is a voters movement across the country, such movement to oust this present administration and it's illegal head along with the republican senate majority and taking control of state and local governments putting the people back in control of their lives.

Keep the eyes on the prize.

[unitedwethrive]

7. In 2016 they may have been too embarrassed to tell a pollster that they were voting for Orange Jabba

but since his continued rhetoric has emboldened them and brought the hate out of hiding, I don't think they are nearly as reluctant to vow support this time.

[kurtcagle]

12. In 2016, Trump was nowhere near as overt as he is now.

The dog whistles were there for those who were already primed to hear them, but in general none of this ever actually made the news, so there were a great number of people who voted for Trump thinking that he was a wealthy, self-made man who was all out for the little guy. I'd argue that many of those people will be far more conflicted this time around. Ironically the last presidential election was all about Hillary, and Trump was a spunky underdog. This time the election is all about Trump, and the fact that Biden is running against him is not an endorsement of Biden (though I think he'll be a good president) but a repudiation of Trump.

[gulliver]

9. I think a lot of people were waiting for the RNC to be over.

The RNC put the Republican Trump worship cards on the table. Trump had his little dance and got his name in front of the White House in front of crowds of approving numbskulls. Now he's got the debates coming. He's also got a slew of prominent Republicans who will really be letting him have it. And Dems will crawl over glass to vote against him.

[kurtcagle]

11. "Silent Majority" was a Nixon invention

The term was popularized by U.S. President Richard Nixon in a televised address on November 3, 1969, in which he said, "And so tonight—to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans—I ask for your support."

It's also one that the GOP trots out with regularity, with the tacit implication that most Americans are conservative, and that liberal and progressive viewpoints are in the distinct minority. It arguably might have been true in 1969, but it has not been true in decades.

[themaguffin]

14. Yep, Pat Buchanan came up with it. The truth is, they are neither silent, nor the majority

As you said, maybe in the 60s it was an appeal to every day people who were not vocal about politics, let alone protesting.

Now, they are incredibly loud and obnoxious.

I would argue we are in the inverse of that time.