Why is everyone freaking out about this poll?

[Proud liberal 80]

To me Biden is in waaay better shape then Clinton was, he is at 50% while Clinton was in the low 40’s...he is beating Trump by 6 while Clinton was trailing Trump by 4....but by some of these comments in this twitter thread you would think Biden is doomed

Link to tweet

?s=21

[mucifer]

1. USPS for one thing. Government sanctioned voter suppression and intimidation etc

It's not 2016. Deplorables control the justice department the senate and the presidency. The supreme court is hit or miss and they did gut the voting rights act.

[Demsrule86]

5. So beat him at this own game, vote in person.

[BannonsLiver]

9. Why do that when it's easier to be doomy?

[mucifer]

11. That's my personal plan. Early voting

[edhopper]

31. And those that can't?

And those who work and their polls were moved 20 miles away?
They just need to stop enough people to make it close.
Don't blame the voters when they are prevented from voting.

[Castiel]

38. I'm sure Russia plans on hacking in person voting.

Trump's DNI announced today they're ending briefings on election security.

[Skittles]

2. the idea that ANYONE supports Trump at this point is DEEPLY TROUBLING

THAT alone is disturbing.

[SheltieLover]

3. No kidding!

[Skittles]

29. and the GOP itself?

they are outright FASCISTS....when was the last time they actually worked for AMERICA?

[onetexan]

21. we can't do change those people's minds. All we can do is hope now Independents, young people &

sensible anti-45 former GOP will vote Biden.

[SheltieLover]

4. Putin

We need to win on election night by a big margin.

[d_b]

6. No idea

I'll worry when he's ahead.

[Polybius]

7. Donald Trump was not leading Hillary by 4 points ever, especially that close to the election

They probably used one outlier poll.

[BannonsLiver]

12. He was ahead by 4 in the morning consult poll

So your statement is not accurate.

[Proud liberal 80]

17. I am just using this particular poll

[Amishman]

8. Late deciders tend to swing for the challenger

As Trump was the 'outsider' in 2016 it helped him. It will hurt him this time.

[Proud liberal 80]

18. But notice the difference

Between this year and 2016, according to this poll there not that many of them

[BannonsLiver]

13. "Wake up Democrats!1111"

[Spazito]

14. Why are you saying it is the protestors when we know full well...

it is not, it is white supremacists, white nationalists, looters and those who deliberately want to create havoc. To say it is the protestors is parroting right wing drivel, imo.

[Agschmid]

15. Who is coddling them? Has Joe Biden been "coddling" them?

Please enlighten me...

[ProfessorGAC]

23. Good Question

Also, since Biden is not holding any office, exactly what does coddling mean?
Joe's just a private citizen right now.
He can't enforce or coddle any more than you or I could.
That post to which you replied was nonsensical.

[Agschmid]

32. Yup... and a member since 2017 go figure.

[Squinch]

16. They cheat and they lie. They are criminals and have no boundaries. We need a bigger margin.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. There were some polls here yesterday that were not real-world polls

I despise polling that makes no sense and could never be correct at any point in time. That describes those 13 and 14 point margins from yesterday. It lends to a delusional evaluation of where the race stands, and therefore does more harm than good.

That USC poll is an insulting poll that is like double Rasmussen in the opposite direction. In 2018 USC did 3 polls of the House generic vote in the final 3 weeks of the campaign. Those margins were 13, then 17, then 15. I don't know what country they are polling. It is not this one. The margin was 8.6. That means the USC poll missed the margin by 6.4 points in one direction after missing 2016 badly in the other direction. I have no idea why that poll receives any attention whatsoever. 538 should not be using it.

This 6 point poll is normalcy. The second convention logically receives the net bounce, as the last voice heard. I expected and predicted a 1-2 point bounce for Trump overall, and that some polls would be more than that.

The very good news is that Biden remained at 50 instead of dipping into the high 40s, as I worried.

[BannonsLiver]

20. My guess is this is why it's being used

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20161108-story.html%3f_amp=true

Reporting from Washington — For most of the last four months, the USC/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll has been the great outlier of the 2016 campaign -- consistently showing a better result for Donald Trump than other surveys did.
In light of Tuesday’s election returns, the poll now looks like the only major survey to see the wave coming.

[Dawson Leery]

27. Biden has held a solid 9 point lead.

54 - 45 is realisitic.

[Bayard]

22. There was another poll earlier

That had Biden up quite a bit:
https://democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13992978

I think I like that one better.

[Proud liberal 80]

25. I like that one better too

But I actually like the poll I posted

[Thekaspervote]

35. And this poll posted this morning on DU

Biden maintains fourteen point lead in prestigious USC-Dornslife poll*

Last edited Sat Aug 29, 2020, 09:35 AM - Edit history (1)

https://election.usc.edu/


Enter the traditional voting grap

[DinahMoeHum]

24. ONE friggin' poll. Literally.

James Carville was with John Melendez ("Stuttering John&quot and Noel Casler (who worked on Trump's Celebrity Apprentice) in a podcast back in May.

His commentary on this issue starts at around 30:10:

[radius777]

26. Trump's gaslighting 'law and order message' is working.

The intent was to scare white voters and if this poll is accurate it seems to be doing that.

Biden has refuted this on zoom interviews and on twitter, but he and Harris need to get out there and do events (with social distancing) and directly take it on. Trump is the chaos and covid president, and must be removed.

Link to tweet

[IcyPeas]

28. I have a hard time with polls since 2016

I just don't believe any of them anymore.

[customerserviceguy]

36. Yep

Four years ago, Hillary had it in the bag, too, according to the polls. I'd sure like to know what the technique is for polling in rural areas, if you get some senior citizen at home in a town on a landline, you may not have someone who represents the feelings of the majority of voters in that county.

[DeminPennswoods]

30. Results moverd within the MOE

But it looks good to say went from 10 pt lead to 6 pts.

[budkin]

33. It's ONE poll. 538 average still Biden +8.6

Don’t panic. Work.

[Fiendish Thingy]

34. With 4,000 LV's and MOE of just 1-2%, the 2020 poll is definitely better news than the 2016

The worst thing about the 2020 poll is 7% undecided/third party, which is greater than Biden’s lead.

The 2016 poll was 2000 RV’s, so less predictive IMO.

Also, of all the post convention polls I’ve seen, this one has the tightest margin, and may be an outlier.

[Castiel]

37. Mainly because Trump's propaganda works

and it's discouraging that no amount of evil, crimes, lies, fascism, etc. he does ever really changes the race.

Trump is also cheating a lot more than 2016, so Biden needs to be way above Hillary to win.