Don't waste your money trying to beat Mitch McConnell: Play "democracy moneyball" instead

[RandySF]

One leader in combating that dysfunction is the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, which is "a gerrymandering team the way that cancer researchers are against cancer," in the words of founder Sam Wang, a Princeton neuroscientist who also founded the Princeton Election Consortium. Wang was speaking at a recent town hall called "Redistricting Moneyball 2020."

As with the original "moneyball" concept, made famous by Michael Lewis' book, the idea is to use smart statistics to identify undervalued prospects as a way of leveraging the power of small donors.

"The original Moneyball concept can be easily translated to elections," PGP team-member Connor Moffatt explained. "Each baseball team has a limited budget just as each citizen has a fixed amount of time and resources they are willing to invest in politics. Baseball teams are trying to win games whereas in elections political parties are trying to gain governing power."
Next comes an intriguing parallel: "Baseball has superstars that are overvalued and politics has races that are high-profile and overvalued." The most obvious example is the Senate race in Kentucky between Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democrat Amy McGrath, which as Moffatt says, is attracting more financial resources "than the leverage would warrant."

What does he mean by that? Kentucky is a solid red state and most polls have McGrath well behind. Democrats are pouring money into the race because they dislike McConnell so intensely — but that's not a smart use of resources. "If McGrath wins," says Moffatt, "it's likely that the national save for Democrats is so large they'll have already flipped the Senate. So the best way for either party to influence whether Mitch McConnell is Senate Majority Leader in 2021 is to invest in seats closer to the majority-control tipping point."

Finally, and most importantly, is the question of "undervalued gems," which in baseball means players whose true value is not obvious. Those exist in politics too, Moffatt said. "There are Texas State House races that have the potential to influence multiple congressional districts over the next decade."



https://www.salon.com/2020/08/29/dont-waste-your-money-trying-to-beat-mitch-mcconnell-play-democracy-moneyball-instead/

[still_one]

1. Fuck salon. This is the same type of bullshit they did in the 2016 GE against Hillary

Trying to discourage people from voting for Amy McGrath by saying she won’t win in a red state

I won’t waste my money supporting rags like Salon

By their logic Andy Beshear shouldn’t be governor

[RandySF]

2. Okay

Rage out against McConnell and give Republicans the free hand to control redistricitng for the next ten years.

[still_one]

3. It isn't either or. Typical Salon bs. According to Quninipac there is only a 5 point lead for

McConnell, and this jackass is telling people to save your money and not support McGrath

I will trust Howard Deans 50 state strategy thank-you

[tinrobot]

6. Our own members are making similar posts.

Amy MCGrath has over $40 million, which is more than Mitch. Other Senate candidates with better chances have far less.

Don't donate based on who you hate the most, donate to those with the best chance of winning.

[still_one]

8. I'll donate to who I want thank-you, and I won't tell someone who they should or shouldn't

donate to

It amazes me how many people like to give unsolicited advice

Jen Perelman was an underdog in Florida, but I didn’t discourage people from donating to her

After NH I heard the same thing about Biden

[ananda]

11. I think it's about money and resources.

Put them where it can really make a difference.

[still_one]

13. With that logic, and seeing that S.C. is so red, I should give up on Harrison also, which I won't do

I will use my money and resources to help Democrats win throughout the country

[Amishman]

12. Beshear is the product of a huge R screwup, like Senator Jones

Not easily repeatable or sustainable without another huge unforced error by the Republicans.

[still_one]

14. I guess that depends if the people of Kentucky like expanded Medicaid

[DFW]

4. Howard's 50 State strategy was based on making impossible races possible

His successes in 2006 and 2008 made a lot of temporary converts, most of whom seemed to say, after 2008, OK, thanks Howard, we'll go back to the old ways now. At age 72 (this November), he's not interested in taking the post of DNC chair again, but how I wish he would!

[still_one]

9. +++. Exactly

[NBachers]

5. I've gone to their Moneyball page to see how to leverage my donations.

I see the following recommendations:

Moneyball states: President AK AR M2, Senate MT KS AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

and then, further down on the left, I see individual Senate candidates:

State Margin Voter Power
MT Daines +3.2 100.0
KS Marshall +1.0 44.3
AK Sullivan +9.0 33.6
SC Graham +1.0 25.6
IA Greenfield +2.0 15.9
ME Gideon +5.0 13.2

The higher the voter power, the more my donation will be leveraged, so the best shots at turning the Senate are Steve Bullock in Montana, and Dr. Barbara Bollier in Kansas.

The article mentions Texas as a most strategic House pickup opportunity, so I'll check recommendations there. I already donated to Brandy Chambers in Texas' 112th District, based on what I read in the article.

A bit info-heavy, but I think I can figure out how to use this. Thanks for posting!

Anyone who has tips or pointers, please chime in.

And, please- I've already made frequent donations to Amy McGrath, including another one today, so no vitriol against me for looking at this, OK??

[RandySF]

15. From a post earlier this month

Courtesy of the Sam Wang/Chaz Nuttycomb Moneyball 2020 site:

1. Brandy Chambers HD-12 - https://brandykchambers.com/

2. L. Sarah DeMerchant HD-26 - https://www.democratdemerchant.com

3. Sharon Hirsch HD-66 - https://www.sharon4tx.com

4.Lorenzo Sanchez HD-67 - https://www.lorenzofortexas.com

5. Joe Drago HD-96 - https://dragofortexas.com/

6. Jeff Whitfield HD-92 - https://www.whitfieldfortexas.com

7. Likeithia Williams HD-54 - https://races.dlcc.org/races/likeithia-keke-williams/

8. Ann Johnson HD-134 - https://www.annjohnson.com

9.Joanna Cattanach HD-108 - https://joannafortexas.com/

10. Celina Montoya HD-121 - https://www.celinamontoya.org




https://election.princeton.edu/data/moneyball/

[NBachers]

22. And here's the Flip Texas House page on ActBlue:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2020-texas-impact-slate?refcode=ads_fb_tx_dd_dlal_pur_morena-c1-beattrump_vid&fbclid=IwAR0cWqK_HlOieEGad6pJ6Htg4t3LT36YTN8XbKzhm4skqWwDvlcMoPE2Mew

[TheBlackAdder]

7. Kentucky: #2 Socialism Taker State. Now a Dem Governor. Hammer that MM wants to kill SS, USPS & ACA

.

KY is slowly changing to purple and Mitch McConnell & his wife shouldn't be given a pass.

.

[still_one]

10. The last poll I saw from Quinipac there was only a 5 point difference with McConnel leading

This article assumes either or, and that is not a winning strategy

In SC Harrison is within the margin of error. Since SC is so red, should I give up on that race also with their logic?

[customerserviceguy]

19. See my post #17 below.

One of the tricks that "safe" GOP officeholders do is to make a lot of noise to sop up political money that could be used to unseat their less safe fellow incumbents.

Don't charge at the red cape.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. 100% agree with this

Kentucky is a lost cause. None of the numbers point to anything but a lopsided win for McConnell.

At some point we have to realize these races are not elastic on foreign soil. You don't receive anything close to 1-to-1 return at a certain level. Too many fail to comprehend that. Cutting the deficit to 10 or 7 points is one thing. Beyond that it is like an impenetrable wall of conservatives, or other demographics friendly to Trump.

Only recently have I begun looking at the educational realities of each state. That became a prominent topic after 2016, since polling in the midwestern states have overestimated college graduates and underestimated voters at high school or lower.

Here is a recent link from Pew Research, listing the educational numbers for each state. The national average in 2016 was 30% of voters at high school or lower and 40% of voters at college graduate.

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2020/08/18/a-resource-for-state-preelection-polling/

The blue states typically are lower than 30 in the first category and above 40 in the second category. The swing states are nearby that 30/40. The red states generally have higher than the national average in the first number and lower in the second.

Kentucky not only fits that description but the first number is considerably above the second, at 36/31

Sorry, Kentucky is not happening. That state has too many working class whites who are no longer swing voters. They are hard line Trump and Republican. You can pour tens of millions and do nothing but move the number an irrelevant point or two.

[roamer65]

18. I say we pull federal funding from the state.

Only allow it to have as much as it sends to DC.

Punishment for its senators voting to reduce the SALT deduction for states like NY and CA.

Make them suffer for it.

[customerserviceguy]

17. I've seen the same thing here in SC

Every week, there's a political mail piece either for or against Lindsey Graham. I don't see a path as to how he loses, and the money consumed with electing Jaime Harrison is probably not well spent.

[MoonlitKnight]

20. I donated to Jones in Alabama

Because he did the right thing voting to convict Trump.

I have been focusing donations on key house races in Florida, legislative races as well.

There was an Act Blue link to donate to the close state house races in Texas so I donated there.

Will give to some of these Senate races as well.

The long game is getting state legislatures for redistricting. My focus on Florida US House races is to flip the delegation blue just in case it comes down to the House deciding the election. We need one seat to do that if we hold ours.

In zero years like this one the focus should be securing state legislatures for redistricting. We can go 50 state strategy in all other elections.

If you want to donate against Graham and McTurtle, fine. It may just help down ballot.

[Midnight Writer]

21. Ds getting closer in KY. It's not a single election strategy, it is building support over time.

Maybe we won't take KY this election, or the next, or the next.

But it is not about a one punch knock out.

It is about wearing down the opposition bit by bit until you get the win.

Keep your head down and keep on swinging.

[Sewa]

23. Sound logical advice

There are other senate races Dem candidates have a better chance of winning. If those seats are won Moscow Mitch will be in the minority.

Thanks for posting this article Randy.