Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it looks like Trump got the benefit of the conventions...

[regnaD kciN]

...according to the only two organizations that polled both before and after each convention:

YouGov
8-12/14 (pre-conventions) B 52/T 42 Biden +10
8-20/22 (post-DNC) B 50/T 41 Biden +10
8-27/28 (post-RNC) B 47/T 41 Biden +6

Morning Consult
8/14-16 (pre-conventions) B 51/T 43 Biden +8
8/23 (post-DNC) B 52/T 42 Biden +10
8/29 (post-RNC) B 50/T 44 Biden +6

Considering that 538 ranks both organizations as skewing 0.4% towards Democrats, it may well be even closer. It's clear that we have a real battle on our hands, and can't afford to get complacent.

[634-5789]

1. AGREED, All hands on deck until we get rid of tRump and the criminal cabal.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. Propaganda works. But, hopefully, it's just a fleeting minor Trump bump.

[tableturner]

20. We LET it work via our passivity, relatively speaking, vs. Trump/GOP.

[LW1977]

3. Remember when McCain was ahead after 2008 RNC(briefly)

Same panic and negative Nancys declaring it’s all over! It’s Debbie Downer time! Yay!

[llmart]

36. I don't see it as being negative Nancys or Debbie Downers.

I see it as warning people not to get too complacent as we did with Hillary. We need to take this seriously.

[spanone]

4. You could put a turd on tee vee for that many hours and it would get a bump-FUCK TRUMP

[Laelth]

29. It would probably get a BIGGER bump.

It’s cuter and has more empathy, after all.



-Laelth

[spanone]

30. 👍🏼

[theophilus]

5. I call bullshit!

Don't Panic. Don still has lots of crazy treason to do before the election. Your concern is noted, however.

[LW1977]

9. Thank you!

OP’s “concern” is noted from me as well!

[liskddksil]

12. Ahh just like 2016 when those warning about critical errors of the Clinton campaign were called

"concern trolls". Woops, looks like they were right. Lets not make the same mistakes this time right?

[Celerity]

19. +1000

Especially as the OP has been here for almost 20 years and is now being labelled a concern troll.

SMDH

[RANDYWILDMAN]

28. Concern noted

That was a theft as was 2000 and 2004 !!!

I doubt we are still accepting a stolen election, but we accepted at least 3

Vote, Vote Vote

[llmart]

37. +1000

n/t

[Arkansas Granny]

6. Regardless what the polls say, I will not rest easy until Biden is elected and inaugurated.

[calguy]

10. That's exactly how I feel

I've seen far too many leads disappear into thin air. At my age I don't have very many more administrations to go through. I sure don't want to die with a republican in the White House.
I can tell you I sure don't like to see all these demonstrations taking place at this point in time. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the protesters are playing right into trump's hand.

[dawg day]

18. Clinton won the pop vote by far. It is, alas, and unfairly, the EC that counts

So the battleground state polls are what matter.

[Me.]

7. Not True...A Loss Every Night...Even Big Vrother Beat It

Republican National Convention Night 1 Down 29% From 2016

https://variety.com/2020/tv/news/republican-national-convention-night-one-ratings-1234747923/

http://www.showbuzzdaily.com/articles/republican-national-convention-tv-ratings-night-1-early-look-at-broadcast.html

https://www.tvinsider.com/946438/big-brother-rnc-night-3-wednesday-tv-ratings/

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/tv-ratings-aug-26-2020-republican-convention-declines


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/business/media/republican-convention-ratings-first-night.html

https://www.showbiz411.com/2020/08/28/rnc-ratings-for-night-4-on-broadcast-networks-remains-low-with-just-5-million-viewers


https://www.tvinsider.com/946439/big-brother-rnc-night-4-thursday-tv-ratings/

https://variety.com/2020/tv/news/republican-national-convention-final-night-ratings-1234752354/

[liskddksil]

11. Ratings are irrelevant. Its media coverage that matters and the Biden campaign

needs to step up immediately and big time to stop letting them control the narrative.

[Me.]

43. Nothing Is Irrelevant In A Campaign

and you don't think they know what they are up against when practically everyone in the world is on them? And perhaps everyone needs to read the latest Cook report.

[tenderfoot]

8. Two days after RNC, 2016:

Trump 44
Clinton 40.

Just so you know.

[regnaD kciN]

27. True. OTOH...

...that year, the Republican convention came first, so that wasn't reflecting any "bump" for Clinton from the DNC. Apples to oranges.

[ProfessorGAC]

13. When One Has A 10 Point Lead...

...& the opponent has a 30% floor, expecting a convention bounce is wishful thinking.
Biden was not going to get a bounce with that big lead.
Let's wait a week to see how concerning this really is.

[Thekaspervote]

17. Thank you!! A voice of sanity

[vercetti2021]

14. Concern duly noted

Work then. If people are swayed that easily? Holy fuck we are a nation of totally dipshits

[BigmanPigman]

15. We know they are already lying, stealing and cheating....

we must not become overly confident or complacent. This could easily be a 2016 redux, only more so. They have gotten better at it, learned what works and are going full steam ahead. Blumenthal has read the reports and has told us so a few weeks ago.

We must do everything we can to GOTV, send postcards, if you are healthy...work at the polls, etc. And Joe can NOT concede after the election...he must wait since we will be in muck up until Inauguration Day.

[llmart]

38. My thoughts exactly.

You expressed them very well.

[Thekaspervote]

16. Morning consult b/c rating, morning consult b

Biden maintains fourteen point lead in prestigious USC-Dornslife poll*


https://election.usc.edu/

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president?utm_campaign

Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.
Chance of winning
the electoral college Chance of winning
the most votes Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win)
Joe Biden
Democrat
around 6 in 7
or 86%
better than 19 in 20
or 97%
213-421

Donald Trump
Republican
around 1 in 7
or 14%
less than 1 in 20
or 3%
117-325

[regnaD kciN]

40. "Prestigious" according to whom...?

538 has them at B/C, just like Morning Consult. Better than Rasmussen, certainly, or completely-unrated organizations like Léger or Redfield & Wilton, but not all that "prestigious."

More to the point, USC-Dornslife hasn't polled the presidential race since late January (at the time, they were "USC-Dornslife/Los Angeles Times"; I'm taking it that they're no longer affiliated with the LAT), back when they were polling multiple Democratic challengers against Trump. Then, starting yesterday, they released no fewer than twenty-four polls covering 7-day rolling averages for each day from just before the Democratic convention until now. (For some reason, they release two different polls with the same 7-day rolling average every day -- not sure if they're doing them for two different clients with slightly different methodologies.) Over that time period, they've averaged out to a Biden lead of 11.75% (range of +9 to +16) -- this at a time where virtually every rated poll was showing only a single-digit lead. And their high of +16 is well above the +12 that is the highest any other rated poll has reported even once. It's hard for me to look at these results and not conclude that they have a substantial Democratic "house effect." Once again, better than Rasmussen on the other side, but I'd have to see some other polls with at least a B/C rating showing similar numbers before I conclude that it isn't probably the safest approach to take USC-Dornslife's numbers, and knock at least three or four percent off them.

[Brother Buzz]

21. Can you say dead cat bounce?

[BlueWavePsych]

42. Yup!

[link:|

[Brother Buzz]

44. LOL, points for the dead cat X eyes

[Initech]

22. You could put a piece of shit on TV during the RNC and it would get a boost in the polls.

[BlueStater]

23. They did put a piece of shit on TV.

Honestly, if that asshole wins again, this country doesn’t deserve to exist anymore. Fuck it.

[Initech]

25. I feel like we're in the final days of Asguard and there's a giant flaming monster rising.

From the ashes to purposefully destroy it. But somehow I don't think Trump is, or could be mistaken for Surtur. He is a giant monster though.

[roamer65]

24. The only way Dump can steal it again is a EC/popular vote rupture.

The country can not withstand another election like 1876.

There will be separatist/secession conventions if he steals it again. It will be like November 1860 to January 1861.

[jimlup]

26. It isn't surprising because when you are the bottom

solidifying the base brings you up.

I God damn hope people don't get complacent and start celebrating our victory before it is in hand.

We DON'T KNOW WHAT IS COMING and it could well be the end of the nation. We need to fight like our lives are on the line because they are. There is a shit storm brewing and will not be fun for us. We had better win with such numbers that victory is undeniable otherwise we could well lose our democracy right now.

[LakeArenal]

31. 2020 is NOT 2016.20.

The world is in ka much worse place.

No one I know is complacent. But no oneq I know believes Joe won’t win.

Trump is done.

Lot of panic, Sky is falling threads these days. Please no falling for it.

[Thekaspervote]

34. Exactly..dotard wants us to be afraid, think we are without options..we are not

They are losing and they know it. ....the best defense is always an offense. This...is what we are seeing. Our reaction should always be to first stay calm. Otherwise we only react instead of choosing the best course of action

[Awsi Dooger]

32. Both sides would always choose to hold the second convention

For exactly this reason. 100% normalcy. Last voice heard. I predicted that Trump would receive a 1-2 point net bounce and it would be higher in some polls.

Always look to generalities first and downgrade details. The details lead astray. It was obsession with details that led to silly belief that the GOP couldn't match "production value" -- whatever that is -- and that somehow Trump would receive a negative bounce.

Those nightly political shows are often completely worthless for exactly this reason...they fixate on trivial short term specifics and not meaningful foundational generalities.

[Thekaspervote]

35. ☝️☝️☝️☝️

[regnaD kciN]

41. Agreed about the "convention bounce"...

...however, that normally is a mirror-image pattern: the nominee of the first convention gets a small bounce, then the second convention is held and their nominee gets a slightly-larger bounce, allowing them to make up the previous ground lost plus a bit more, which then slowly degrades. What is most notable this year is that Biden appears to have not gotten any form of a bounce (if you include the polls that haven't reported yet after the RNC), although he did get the benefit of seeing his net favorables increase.

I've often wondered how the standard developed where there was a tacit understanding that the incumbent's convention would go last? I can understand it might have been desirable early on, when the challenging party figured they'd need more time to introduce a less-well-known candidate to the public and give them a couple of weeks more campaign time, but, nowadays -- especially with the conventions only a week apart, as this year -- all it seems to do is guarantee the incumbent gets the "last word" and, potentially, the bigger bounce. I wonder what would happen if the party out of power decided to break that understanding and, say, schedule their convention the week before Labor Day?

[Make7]

33. For each candidate, margin of error +–3 YouGov and +–2 Morning Consult. ( n/t )

[Awsi Dooger]

39. 1% of Biden voters switched to Trump, but otherwise lots of good indications

A small number of voters who had not planned to vote now say they will vote for Trump.

Those are the reasons for the 2.5% swing, according to this article. But overall the entirety of the poll is not bad for Biden, if you read the full article. People think the nation will be less safe if Trump is re-elected. A majority believe there will be more violence like Kenosha if Trump wins. 61% say "bringing people together" is the way to go compared to 39% who prefer "law and order." That is a 10 point shift toward "back together" over the prior month's poll.

That is Biden's theme and he should hammer it, along with the social security reality

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-bidens-lead-over-trump-shrinks-to-6-points-after-the-rnc-his-smallest-margin-in-months-164411657.html