Morning Consult National Poll. Trump Approval 38% Disapproval 58%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/08/31125104/2008107_crosstabs_CORONAVIRUS_CONTENT_Adults_v2_JB.pdf


That's a poll of adults. Let's bump it up to 41% for likely voters. I believe in the KISS method of analysis. Keep it simple, stupid. The most important metric in a re-election campaign where there is an incumbent is his or her approval rating. Re-election campaigns are referendums on the incumbent. If they like the job he or she is doing they rehire him or her. If they don't, they don't. The incumbent's approval rating on the day of the election is very close to the percentage he or she receives


Trump is at 43% in aggregate approval at 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

ON EDIT-It's best to look at the averages. If a poll is too good or bad to be true it probably is. In that vein I would look at both the too good to be true USC Dornslife poll and the too bad to be true Emerson poll with a jaundiced eye.

[Karadeniz]

1. Barr intends to dump a turd before the election...that sort of thing has changed elections.

Why have the states where he has a license not disbarred him?

[gristy]

3. The Biden crew and his arms-length support no doubt has plans and responses for every possible turd.

There are legions of very smart people wracking their brains every day. And, no doubt, seeking out intelligence and accepting it when presented to them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. We need to worry about just winning the race as much as those malignant clowns stealing it.

[sandensea]

2. He's basically down to the Jim Crows and Archie Bunkers

(with apologies to the great Carroll O'Connor)

[octoberlib]

5. I like adult polls.

[getagrip_already]

6. I don't get your reference to adult poll being lower?

He has abysmal youth polling. Only something like 7% of people under 25 support him.

How does that drive up the number when you include non-adults? Or are you implying seniors aren't adults?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Adults is everybody over eighteen.

When you go from a poll of adults to registered voters to likely voters the amount of Democrats usually decrease because Republicans are more likely to vote.

[DFW]

7. I'd like to ask the 38% something

Approve of WHAT exactly?????