shock: a wave of business failures hitting during the campaign season.

[Demovictory9]

Trump’s rebound story meets mounting bankruptcies
It won’t exactly be an October surprise, but it could still be a shock: a wave of business failures hitting during the campaign season.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/03/coronavirus-business-bankruptcies-trump-408036

While President Donald Trump prepares to promote an economic rebound, a wave of business failures is set to tell another story.

Economic-relief money drying up in August and September will mark a final blow for some firms that had managed to hang on so far with government aid — which now appears unlikely to be renewed for weeks, if ever. Cold weather and flu season could end outdoor dining, halt other indoor activities and contribute to Covid-19 outbreaks at workplaces. And economists expect weak demand and tight credit — especially for smaller businesses — to add to the tens of thousands of firms that have already collapsed amid the Covid-19 pandemic, while restraining entrepreneurs hoping to replace them.

All of it could complicate Trump’s narrative of a robust American comeback. The president has been plotting a hopeful message since the depths of the pandemic this spring, but it’s increasingly at odds with the mounting toll of corporate bankruptcies and deepening wounds for small businesses still bleeding from the spring shutdowns.

Earlier this summer, Covid cases were dipping and states started reopening. Weeks later, there was a resurgence. Trump is now looking at a repeat of that situation — just two months ahead of the election.

“With consumer demand falling, as things get colder and as people don’t want to be outside and begin to feel more impact from the lack of federal help, you would expect people to spend less,” said Ray Sandza, vice president of data and analytics at Homebase, which monitors small business activity. “You would expect that to have an impact on these businesses. At this point, just staying flat where we are now would be a very good outcome.”

Reliable readings on small businesses are hard to come by to track real-time shifts in the economy, but several private gauges paint an ugly picture.

[CrispyQ]

1. I don't believe there's anything he can do to stave off the devastation Main Street

is about to experience.

[Cal Carpenter]

4. Yeah, it will be bad

Without some sort of real rent relief for commercial spaces, us little guys are doomed. My tiny mom-and-pop business (small specialty retail) has barely held on. I can't think further than a week or two at a time in terms of paying bills or I'll lose my shit. Somehow we've made it this far (our neighborhood loves us, lol), but I don't know how we'll make it through this winter. Let's just say I'm not expecting much out of the holiday season.

As for the landlord? Fuckers won't give an inch in our high-rent town. They're acting like our struggles (and when I say "our" I also mean the other small businesses in our building) are due to bad business decisions rather than, gee, I dunno, a fucking global pandemic?! If we grovel they'll consider "deferring" our rent temporarily. Which means we'll have to pay it all eventually. So they'll get theirs in the end, but we will NEVER make up our losses. And in our case, we know the landlord owns the property outright, no mortgage, which makes it all the more infuriating. If he lowered our rent by, say, 35%, which would closer reflect it's actual value at this point, we'd probably make it. But he won't. So for now, we aren't even paying ourselves, not since March, but we're paying every penny of the goddamn rent. It's twisted. And unsustainable for much longer.

Mine is one tiny business. We won't make headlines if we go under. Our job losses won't cause a blip. But there are tens of thousands of businesses like mine that are failing now, or will continue to over the winter. It is fucking terrible.

[Amishman]

6. Need more than rent relief

Need a broad aide package for restaurant, hospitality, tourism, entertainment, and even sports businesses.

Anything dependent on a crowd of people, spectators, or travel is just bleeding to death.

Rent assistance, PPP assistance with wages, these don't address that there many other types of costs that are breaking these places.

[OAITW r.2.0]

2. The economy will not get better as long as 40% of the population thinks "freedumb" is

not wearing a mask. The 1st order of business for the Biden administration will be a national emergency that requires everyone to wear a mask and social distance. Those that don't, will need to be detained and isolated from the rest of society. That's the only way we can reopen the country and restart the economy.

Had Trump listened to the experts back in February and followed their advice instead of seizing on the medical crisis as a political opportunity to further divide the country, we'd have had the problem largely resolved and Americans could be back to work and cheering for their favorite sports teams. It's all on Trump.

[mike_c]

3. every single day my partner and I are grateful

She's retired and I'm partly retired, so we have an income and the luxury to stay home as long as we need without economic pain. I'm teaching fall semester classes, but doing it 100% from home.

[Blue_true]

8. Yes. Working people below retirement age who can't work from home are being hammered now.

And Trump has no idea of how, nor a desire to get things on track to a better day. It is all about pitting one group of Americans against “others”.

[Wellstone ruled]

5. If one wants a real

gauge as to how small business is doing. Take a road trip around your town or city. Posted this some two months ago about the number of vacated and for rent spaces in our retail strip malls. Now we have whole buildings vacated were two months ago it was just a couple vacated units per building.

As our Friend the Hair Dresser says,I got more outflow than I have inflow.

[Demovictory9]

7. I see the space for rent signs