Indiana: why did we win in 2008 but this year it seems impossible?

[Hamlette]

the other surprise fro 2008 was NC but we are still competitive there this year. I must admit I was surprised we won Indiana last time but I was focused on our winning NC (a dent in the solid South was my thinking).

What was going on in Indiana in 2008 that is not happening this time?

[Flashmann]

1. What was going on in Indiana in 2008 that is not happening this time?

Logic.....Reason.....Critical thought...Tolerance....Compassion......Empathy....Fore thought....

[maxsolomon]

2. Turnout and Low-information Voters?

Theories:
African American population not expected to turn out in percentages as large as 2008.
College students not as enthused, engaged as in 2008.
Lots of swing voters buying the propaganda of "failure" coming from every media outlet in the state.
Pure, stubborn ignorance & cussedness.
Proxmity to Kentucky.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I bet Obama pulls in the same amount of black support...

But won't do as well among white supporters as he did in '08. Obama actually wasn't destroyed last go around in the white vote, losing it 54-45 to McCain. But I don't expect it to be that close. My guess is Obama is probably losing the white vote by 15-20 points now there, erasing much of the gains he'll make with the minority vote.

In the most recent Indiana poll, Obama was losing 50-44 ... and is losing the white vote 58-35, so, that's the difference right there.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Same reason Clinton won Georgia in '92 and couldn't carry it in '96...

Strongly conservative state that gets swept up in the energy of a new campaign and a candidate who polls well among certain voters who put him over the top (Obama with blacks in the Indianapolis and NW area, Clinton with the southern whites). Clinton won Georgia by less than a point and lost it in '96 by a bit over a point. I expect Indiana to be generally close (Obama will probably lose it by 5), but it was just the perfect storm in '08 ... as was Georgia in '92.

[democraticinsurgent]

4. Remember how bad things were then

Eight years of Barely Legal Bush had worn everyone down. The economy was collapsing and who knew how much worse it was going to get?

McCain seemed completely out of touch, and for the first time, we had a chance to elect a person of color to be president. This brought out tons of young and/or disaffected voters.

Four years later, things are still bad, but the acute reasons for getting Hoosier voters excited about Obama are not as present.

Plus, the Indiana Democratic Party is in a shambles now. They have squandered every opportunity to grow and get stronger, essentially ceding the state to the Republicans.

Off the top of my head, those are some reasons.

[anneboleyn]

5. I have not looked at any recent polls, but it still seems like it MIGHT be possible. NO Romney signs

It doesn't seem like there is any enthusiasm for Romney at all.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. It's possible. Obama trails 50-44 in the most recent poll...

So, six points is doable. If this race continues breaking for Obama, it'll move closer to him, IMO. Remember, at this stage in '08, before Obama started pulling away, not many people thought he'd carry Indiana ... just that he was 'respectable' there compared to other Dems.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep24.html

[rachel1]

8. I honestly think Obama will win Indiana again

because romney sucks so badly.

Just look at his track record and tell me that the average person would vote for him.

I don't think so./