Biden Now Predicted to Win 352 Electoral Votes: FiveThirtyEight

[left-of-center2012]

Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to 76.7%, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 76.6% on Sept. 24. He is predicted to win 352 of 538 electoral votes.

The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 22.8%, down from 22.9% on Sept. 24
According to the Sept. 25 run of the model, Trump had a 11.1% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 88.9%

The national polling average for Trump reached 43.1% on Sept. 25, unchanged from Sept. 24
Biden’s national polling average reached 50.3% on Sept. 25 compared with 50.2% on Sept. 24

For full article, polls added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours, and polling averages by state on Sept. 25, click on link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/biden-now-predicted-to-win-352-electoral-votes-fivethirtyeight

[donkeypoofed]

1. The popular vote doesn't matter !

Only the Electoral College does.

Biden has to win by a YUGE margin or Spanky will contest and there'll be riots.

[lagomorph777]

22. 538's prediction is for the Electoral College.

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. The greater the margin of popular vote victory, the greater the odds of EC victory

A 7 point margin = 99% odds of EC victory

HRC’s 2-3 margin in 2016 = 48-50% odds of EC victory.

[MrsMatt]

29. There will be riots even if Biden wins every EC vote

IMO

[ProfessorGAC]

38. Highly Unlikely

Most of PINO's cult will slink away to whine.
A handful will pretend to riot, even fewer will actually go violent.
It will be small scale noise.
There were no riots when Obama won more than 2:1, and his victory meant one of "those people" was the new POTUS.
The proud boys are a tiny fringe group, and most of the militia types aren't going to have the guts to confront armed authorities.
They're noisy, but they aren't big enough to intimidate the whole country.
Most of the supporters are just cranky punks who aren't even sure what they're mad about.
Their "leader" goes down, they're whipped.

[Shermann]

2. Yeah Biden needs three million votes (or more) just to make it fair

I'll take those three million votes in any shape or form, fairly cast or otherwise.

That's three million felony charges though, punishable by years in prison. The risk/reward ratio isn't so good, and at those levels is quite detectable.

So it's inherently kind of difficult to pull off. Tucker Carlson can breathe easy.

[Trumpocalypse]

3. They predicted Clinton would win to

Let’s not get over confident.

[janterry]

4. I remember thinking bush jr would lose by a lot

- especially after his first term.

I don't take a thing for granted in this election.

[NurseJackie]

5. Let's not wallow in the past. Let's not drown ourselves in fear, uncertainty and doubt.

Last edited Sat Sep 26, 2020, 02:48 PM - Edit history (1)

Let’s not get over confident.

Let's not obsess about being negative. It serves no useful purpose.

I'm not seeing anything that slightly resembles "over-confidence". What I'm seeing is enthusiasm and energy and motivation. That's not "over-confident" ... why would anyone want to try and characterize this positive energy in a negative way. Why would anyone want to do or say anything that would make people LESS enthusiastic and LESS eager to participate and work (or volunteer, or donate)?

Here's the thing: Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

[Trumpocalypse]

6. I hope you are right

[True Blue American]

7. So true, Nurse Jackie!

The hysteria coming from the media has forced me to turn cable off.

Every tweet, every ignorant lie out of Trump’s mouth spews forth more hysteria.

Turn it off and vote like your life depended on it because it really does!

Enough, already!

[KS Toronado]

8. Wish cable would quit reporting on every stupid little thing he says

And the shame is they only do it for ratings.

[True Blue American]

12. As one who just leaves

The TV on in the background this last week was really an eye opener. I had it on Joe, he and Mika were hysterical over Trump saying he would not leave and all his other bull, bringing on one regular after another I switched to CNN. The woman Host was hysterical.

I turned them all off. When I did turn it back on I switched to oldies. I felt so much better. Thought, you are much too old to allow this. My kids have been telling me to turn it off but being so house bound we are much more susceptible.

I now watch movies between reading books. Thank goodness for my Pool exercises where we have fun. All of our fun lunches and outings have been cut off. Outside of the family.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. +++

Every time I see a report of another unlikely Senate race becoming competitive for Democrats to win, or another Red State moving within reach for Biden, I become MORE enthusiastic, more likely to donate more money, more compelled to work for a sweeping Democratic win that will put Trumpism in the dust bin of history.

[NurseJackie]

19. Oh no! You're "over-confident"... that means we're going to lose!

I become MORE enthusiastic, more likely to donate more money, more compelled to work for a sweeping Democratic win that will put Trumpism in the dust bin of history.

Oh no! You're "over-confident"... that means we're going to lose!



Thank you! Your instinctive response (your actions, your motivation) are exactly what I'm talking about. I feel the same way! I'm ENERGIZED and ENTHUSIASTIC. I don't understand why people continually try to tamp-down our desire to act for success with doom-and-gloom predictions and encouraging us to be sullen and morose.

We've got WORK TO DO!!! We ALL have work to do!

[PunkinPi]

17. +1 nt

[Baked Potato]

34. Yes!

[DemsIn2020]

24. I swear these sites are working for Trump..

They are trying to get people to stay home.

[ProfessorGAC]

39. The Subjective Criteria...

...in the models were underweighted in 2016, by Silver's own admission.
The impact of the 25 years of Hillary hate, the Comey announcement, and the desire to try something different was grossly underestimated.
Silver has adjusted those subjective elements in his model. In fact, the first one doesn't exist, because there hasn't been a 25 year effort to demonize biden, as with HRC.
And the 3rd is weaker, because PINO is no longer an outsider and is not an unknown quantity anymore.
I thought like you about 538 until I listened to a podcast where Silver talked about his mistakes in 2016.
I feel much better about it than I did before I heard how we restructured his methods.

[amuse bouche]

10. I've seen predictions over 400 from better people than 538

[USALiberal]

14. Then why not post the link????????? nt

[amuse bouche]

35. No, because Dems just keep whining..'Pretend we're behind'

I click out as soon as the pearl clutching starts. It looks so weak

It's going to be a blowout but they play into the rotten Rethug hands

[amuse bouche]

36. No, because Dems just keep whining..'Pretend we're behind'

I click out as soon as the pearl clutching starts. It looks so weak

It's going to be a blowout but they play into the rotten Rethug hands

[jimlup]

11. Let's work like this isn't the case...

Sorry to remind us all of 2016. While the margins predicted were not this large, we were at 300 predicted then.

[True Blue American]

13. You are quite right.

Trump, Barr, McConnell and their minions are one dirty bunch.

[SKKY]

25. That is 100% the mentality we need!!!

We need to roll into Nov 3rd playing like we're down 5%. In my opinion, 538, in spite of their best intentions, probably gives people a false sense of security. VOTE! VOTE!! VOTE!!! That's the only way we win.

[jimlup]

44. I got my ballot today.

Will now expedite it immediately!

[SKKY]

45. I could vote absentee, but F it! I'm voting in person, and I also have a sweet....

...little troll I'll be doing. Where I vote, you can't wear political attire. Cool. But, I have a t-shirt with a cartoon yellow dog on the front. Let's see if they get it.

[jimlup]

46. I'm still deciding what I'm going to do..

In a perfect world, I'd just bring my ballot to the polls on election day and vote in person. But, I consider that if I put it in the county election ballot return box, it is safe. I trust that my democratic Attorney General will have my back if such ballots get contested by the anti-democracy trumpists.

We both live in critical swing states. Mine is going to blue this November if the election is fair and transparent. I'll decide this week how I'm going to proceed.

[yaesu]

15. on Nov 3 of 16 they had HRC and dumpf at a 269 Electoral College tie sending it to the

House, if these numbers hold, which they should, things are looking up.

[George II]

16. Let's not get too excited, please. Clinton was predicted to win by almost the same in 2016.

[ProfessorGAC]

40. See Post 39

The two models are apples & oranges.

[musclecar6]

18. I think it's fair to say

nobody on here is feeling overconfident at all. What we are feeling is a tremendous drive to make sure we get our asses out and vote and encourage all other friends family etc. to do the same. Yes things are looking positive and have been all along for Joe but that doesn’t mean anything in the long run. I think enough people in this country are fed up with this worthless piece of garbage and all of his adoring sycophants who are just as bad as he is, but that doesn’t mean we can let our guard down and cruise. That said those numbers do look good and that gives us encouragement to keep on keepin’ on. Go blue for Joe and Kamala.

[bucolic_frolic]

20. It's a bit different this time

Trump is the issue, democracy is on the ballot, Democrats are united, Americans are scared and angry.

So let's not hesitate, no hand-wringing, just action.

[kimbutgar]

21. I see energy and urgency about this election more than I did in 2016 and 2012

2008 was the closet in energy. People are sick and tired of the orange clown and want him gone.

[bamagal62]

23. It's very different now. People see

What a liar Trump is. And, although I love Hillary, there were a lot of men that just couldn’t handle a woman as president. In addition, we also didn’t understand the Russian infiltration and influence in that election.

[Doodley]

26. 538 doesn't factor-in the onslaught of cheating by Trump and GOP.

[ProfessorGAC]

41. Yes It Does

Read the methodology explanation on 538.

[paleotn]

28. Horse race....pass it on.

The polls are deeply flawed like 2016. We're behind and it will take the efforts of all of us to push Biden over the top. Everyone, and I mean everyone of good conscience must vote. In person, by mail, early in person, whatever. Vote goddamn it, vote! Catch my drift?

[sarcasmo]

30. An epic beat down in store for Trump.

[VarryOn]

31. Tuesday's debate will be huge...

Biden can seal the deal with a good performance.

[a kennedy]

32. I was curious and checked on Hillary's Electoral map before the election in 2016

https://time.com/4561625/electoral-college-predictions/. 322 for Clinton 216 for tRump.

[BlueWavePsych]

33. Let's make sure!

GOTV

[Qutzupalotl]

37. Good. Our country really needs an outright win on election night.

Facebook may prevent Trump from claiming victory prematurely, but Twitter seldom hides his tweets, and he has tens of millions of followers (supposedly). There is well-founded speculation that Trump will either claim victory due to the demographics of in-person voting, or question the integrity of the vote if he is behind, and create FUD around mail-in ballots. There is evidently a plan to ensure Trump-friendly electors are chosen from certain red states; I don’t know if that will work, but it’s out there. So the stakes are high.

If Biden just has a lead in the EC vote on election night, that would go a long way to tamping all that down. If Biden wins Florida, or (fuck me) TEXAS, it’s over.

A humiliating defeat is the only appropriate remedy for this race-baiting fascist. Let it be so!

[OnDoutside]

42. Only 352 ? Too close for comfort, work harder.

[Tribetime]

43. Wow drumph only 50% approval in 14 states