Drumpf May Have Lost His Grip on Farm Country

[BlueWavePsych]

Trump May Be Losing His Grip on Farm Country

In 2016, Trump earned his biggest vote margins in the most sparsely populated counties. That was partly because several demographic factors associated with Trump voters are more common in rural America. But economics, too, played a role. Net farm income had declined from a record $124 billion in 2013 to $62 billion four years later, and Trump’s campaign themes resonated with some long-festering rural anxieties. The pay-off came on Election Day, when several farm-heavy swing states, such as Wisconsin, unexpectedly went his way.

The honeymoon, though, was brief. Trump’s decision to initiate a trade war with China not long after taking office led to retaliatory tariffs on American goods, including food. In 2018, U.S. agricultural exports to China declined by 53%, to $9 billion from $19 billion. To make up the difference, and placate a key constituency, the administration arranged for direct offsetting payments to farmers that totaled $14 billion last year.

If the Covid-19 pandemic had never happened, those payments would’ve been more than enough to push total government farm aid to record levels over the past two years. A first round of relief spending then added another $19 billion. Late last week, the administration added another $13 billion. The upshot is that direct government assistance will account for more than 36% of total farm income this year.

As generous as those programs have been, though, they can only paper over the structural problems facing America’s agricultural economy. Cash receipts earned from selling actual goods, such as livestock, are expected to decline to their lowest levels since 2010. Farm debt is slated to hit a record $434 billion this year, and the debt-to-asset ratio may reach 14%, the ninth consecutive annual increase. With cash tight, health-care affordability has become a key concern on farms across the country.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-24/is-donald-trump-losing-farm-country

Uh oh. Did he say healthcare? Then, ACA is very important.

[kurtcagle]

1. There's also the question about

how much of that money went to Archers Daniel Midlands (ADM), Con-Agra and Monsanto. I would be willing to bet that the amount that actually made its way to the smaller independent farms was MUCH lower.