AR-02: French Hill moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean' Republican

[RandySF]

Initially, Democratic state Sen. Joyce Elliott's campaign looked symbolic, considering she lost this seat by 20 points in 2010 and GOP Rep. French Hill survived the 2018 "blue wave" by six points. But an early September Hendrix College poll shows Hill ahead just 48 percent to 46 percent, a finding that's subsequently been backed up by polling conducted privately by both parties.

Republicans fret that Elliott took advantage of the cheap Little Rock market in August to build a positive image as a public school teacher, while the wealthy Hill waited until mid-September to begin defining her for voting for tax hikes in the legislature. Now, House Republicans' Super PAC is jumping in. This is Arkansas's most suburban seat, and Trump isn't providing Hill the lift he did when he won by 11 points in 2016.


https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-seven-races-move-mostly-towards-democrats

[Hestia]

1. I dunno - Polls here show Elliott is in a dead heat right now. AR-02 is Democratic, so she should

have a fantastic chance. She does have the name recognition. 2016, SoS bought new voting machines with Russian software - any surprise she lost in a Democratic stronghold? MIB are strong here and just went out this week. She has ads running everywhere and shooting down the lies of Hill.