Trump's tirade against mail-in voting makes sense, and makes things tougher for us.

[thesquanderer]

Trump is focussed on what the results look like on election night, which will reflect all the in-person ballots but not all the mail-in ones.

What he is doing with his claims of voter fraud is skewing those numbers. His followers, who are skeptical of mail-in voting, will disproportionately vote in person. Dems (and other people who believe covid is real) will disproportionately choose mail-in. So election night results will look stronger for Trump than the later total tally will... and he will use that discrepancy to make an argument that reverses the chicken and the egg, cause and effect. Instead of his screaming about fraud leading to skewed election results, he will use the skewed election results as an excuse to increasingly scream about fraud. "See? I told you, mail-in is screwy. Look how different these results are compared to election day, it's a fraud! The only votes you know are real are the ones that were cast in person on election day." And he will use that argument to cast doubt for whatever machinations follow.

Our best insurance--to whatever extent people are comfortably willing to do this--is probably to mask up and go vote in person, especially in the potential swing states, so that the election night results themselves show Trump as the loser. It's not enough for Biden to win the final tally. For our best shot at a "peaceful transition", Biden needs to win among those who vote in person, too.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. In Virginia, voters were standing in line on the first day possible to vote in person.

When I went past my local registrar's office last Thursday, in Alexandria, there was a long line of people waiting to vote.

I have received my absentee ballot in the mail. I now have to decide whether to mail it in or to vote in person, either ahead of time or on election day.

[Autumn]

2. My state has voted by mail for years. By the end of the night or next morning we know who won

in our state.

[krawhitham]

3. Trump REALLY REALLY does not want a paper trail for votes

[Hoyt]

4. It doesn't take that long to tabulate mail votes. Folks who waited until last minute might cause

a problem. Some states even allow mail votes to be tabluated before the election or during the day. Others can prepare the ballots, check signatures, etc., and be on the scanner ready to go when the polls close.

In any event, folks like Steve Kornacki will keep us updated on how the likely outstanding votes lean.

[Ms. Toad]

5. Most early voting/mail in voting is counted first.

The live voting plays catch up all evening on eleciton night to the bail-in ballots that (in most jurisdictinos) are the FIRST reported.

So, no.

[thesquanderer]

8. It depends on the state, plus they need to count votes that haven't even ARRIVED by election day.

Here's some info on how it varies by state...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/do-not-open-until-election-day-state-laws-will-delay-n1238806

and then there are all the states where a ballot only has to be POSTMARKED by election day, so there's no way it can be counted before.

But yes, if you are going to do mail-in, at least in the states that do start counting votes before election day, mail early!

[Ms. Toad]

9. I know it varies by state - that is why I said most, not all. n/t

[thesquanderer]

10. I realized that, but I think it matters too often to simply say "no."

It's a multi-day process, and 14 states don't even BEGIN to count mail-in votes until election day, and even others need to keep counting ballots that were postmarked in time but arrive after.

But thanks for pointing out that in most states counting does at least begin ahead of election day.

[marble falls]

6. That's my thoughts, too. I'm leaning towards in person, depending on what happens ...

with the 2nd wave Covid.

I'd also rather have a paper ballot. But that ain't going to happen.

[MagickMuffin]

7. I'm in Texas I don't have a choice

The republicons took away the Straight Ticket voting from us. It was over turned by a Judge who said during this pandemic it only makes sense to use a Straight Ticket ballot. But without haste the republicons are fighting that which means filling out every candidate on the ticket.

When we had Straight Ticket voting I never used it. I liked filling in every candidates name. However, with the Deadly Pandemic, it would be nice to spend as little time in there as possible. But I will do whatever is necessary to VOTE THEM OUT.

[jorgevlorgan]

11. The only states that might not be accurate on election night

Are PA, MI, and wisconsin. If Trump is winning AZ, NC, FL and Ohio, he actually likely won those state. Mail ballots are the first ones counted in most of the swing states. On the other hand, if Biden actually won by a landslide, we would know very quickly as well. The only way Trump could pretend he won is if it as close as we don't want it to be.

[thesquanderer]

12. re: "Mail ballots are the first ones counted in most of the swing states."

So that's at least an argument to make sure you vote early if you're going to mail it in, so it is counted by election day. But still, if Trump actually challenges the validity of mail-in votes, it won't matter if you voted early or late. The only non-challengable votes (if that is his strategy) will be the ones cast in person.

[jorgevlorgan]

13. He will not be able to throw out all the mail ballots

Precedent and law is pretty clear on that.

[thesquanderer]

15. He doesn't need to literally throw them out, but just justify sufficient doubt...

...to pursue the kind of thing discussed here:

[jorgevlorgan]

16. That would require them to change the laws first.

Which even if the the gop was actually on board with such a crazy idea, would still require the law to be changed in mi, wi and pa to reach 270 electoral votes. Those all have democratic governors and no veto proof majority.

[thesquanderer]

17. Based on that video I linked to, I think no laws have to be changed. (n/t)

[jorgevlorgan]

18. They do.

The media has been conveniently leaving that out.
A state legislature cannot unilaterally decide how their state awards electoral votes if there are already laws in place for selecting electors. They would need to first change those laws.

On edit:The constitution is very clear about how the state as a whole runs their elections, even if it allows state legislatures to select electors if the state decides to do so.

Also it is nice to know that the GOP has come fully on board so far against even considering such a scheme at this point.

[thesquanderer]

19. As it happens, Thomas Friedman made the same argument...

Vote for Biden — do it by mail early if you must, but if you can, please, put on a mask and do it in person. If enough of us do that, Biden can win outright with the votes cast on Election Day, instead of waiting for all the mail-in ballots to be counted, thereby giving time for Trump and Fox News to muddy the outcome.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/opinion/trump-election-fraud-2020.html

discussed here at https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214164269 where I commented, "the more overwhelming Biden's victory is with the numbers available ON election day (both electorally and in popular vote), the more untenable any possible Trump shenanigans become."

You can argue whether something could or could not happen, whether laws would need to be changed for a particular challenge to work, etc., but in the end, we don't know exactly what Trump might do, what bizarre strategy he could come up with, nor for that matter what dangerous unrest he could provoke.

As Mayor Pete said in the primaries, we don't need to just beat Trump, we need to beat him by "beyond cheating distance."

[jayfish]

14. Beat Him Like A Drum On Election Day Then,...

turn the tables on him. As in, "I thought the mail-in ballots were corrupt Mr. Lame Duck. Why would we wait for them to be counted to declare President Elect Biden the winner?"

[apnu]

20. I dunno about that and it will depend on the state.

In my state, [redacted], and my county [redacted], we use paper ballots that we mark with a sharpie or pen. Those are fed into a machine and scanned in a second.

For those of us using mail-in or absentee ballots, and turn them in before election day, they will be scanned and held by the county. On Election day, when they start counting, they simply add those votes on the tally, takes a nano-second in a computer.

[thesquanderer]

21. It does vary with state...

14 states don't start couting mail-in ballots until election day (and with signature checking and challenges, it can take days), and 20 states continue to accept legitimately postmarked ballots even after election day.

The point is really that, regardless of state, we want Biden's victory as shown on election day to be as overwhelming and unchallengable as possible, in both the electoral college AND popular votes, to try to take away ANY possible ammunition for Trump to pull something crazy. As Mayor Pete says, we need to beat him beyond cheating distance.