Trump was 100% successful in meeting his strategic goals yesterday. Again the media falls for it.

[grantcart]

To be sure Trump has a losing hand and made it worse.

He probably will lose 3% in the polls and it is looking like a 57% to 43% popular loss in 5 weeks.

And yet, at this point Trump would be happy with that.

So now the media is talking about how rude, chaotic and racist Trump is.

Everyone already knew that.

This wasn't the "beginning of the end of the Trump campaign" it is very near the end of the Trump campaign.

Trump knows that and that isn't his main concern at this time.

On Sunday the New York Times outlined specific facts that outlined

1) An elaborate criminal conspiracy to commit tax fraud
2) The greatest national security danger in the history of the United States
3) Trump's overwhelming failure as a business leader
4) A complete con perpetuating a series of flimsy PR images that are no longer credible
5) Paying lower taxes than the lowest salaried members of his base.

Paying taxes is the most personal interaction most Americans have with the federal government. There is a widespread perception that it is basically unfair that people that work the hardest pay an unfair share.

It is the one and only thing that can split his base. It is likely that if the charges were widely documented and proved that Trump wouldn't lose 3% but 15 to 20%.

But more importantly, much more importantly is that it would become the dominate theme in the close out of the election and a call for a Special Prosecutor would become a major theme in the last weeks of the campaign and would be confirmed with a landslide loss.

So Trump is going to do everything to get the criminal tax story off the front pages.

He did that yesterday. The media is outraged and distracted.

And guess what, all of the Republican Senators running for re election are not being asked about their opinion of $ 70,000 hair cut deductions, and the clearly illegal $ 70 million refund on a debt where he retained value (which is clearly not allowed).

There are no published stories today about Trump's former campaign manager who appears to be a central figure in a $ 140 million scheme to skim money from the campaign. Oh and by the way this same individual was threatening to commit suicide and is under custody.

So yes it was a revolting shit show.

But it wasn't criminal, it distracted from a much more devastating story.

Yes the NYT will reheat the story but the momentum will not be the same. There is something about the life of an expose that has an organic heat when it starts that can reach a boiling point but if it is interrupted and reissued seems contrived and less powerful.

Yes Trump lost politically, yes he is going to lose by a landslide.

But what he was able to do was to take the clearly criminal charges off the front burner and right now that is his over riding concern.

In the meantime Trump still thinks he has a chance to win the election because there could be some terrible Biden gaffe or some outlandish rumor that takes off. But even if he loses his main concern is too try and minimize his criminal exposure.

All of his shit stirring is simply repeating what he did with his bankruptcies: He created such chaos that he could force the banks to accept his terms because to fight him would see him burn down the assets (figuratively) and cause further losses. Trump is trying to generate widespread violence and civil unrest so that he can negotiate a peaceful transition with a global "no prosecution" agreement.

People think that Trump is stupid. He is not. He understands numbers. His projections on the morbidity of Covid 19 to Woodward (about 5 times a flu season) is pretty much on the mark. He knows he is almost certainly going to lose but he wants to be able to lose without having any criminal prosecution for the crimes he knows he has committed.

A chaotic racist debate performance is much better than a detailed discussion of his criminal tax history and a listing of ridiculous payments on haircuts (and the rest) that even much of his base will start to question.

[Claustrum]

1. I agree with you. People in the middle and on the left want specific policy talk.

The right likes his crazy antics and couldn't care less about policies. Any undecided or middle of the road people that tuned in yesterday is mostly turned off and bought the "both sides are bad" narrative.

Though, if it was a substantive policy debate, we know Trump would lose badly. So he did his act because it's better than the alternative.

[RegexReader]

2. this is why Biden should demand

more debates so that this behavior will be ingrained in the pysche of the voters.


my 2¢

[Dream Girl]

3. I don't think the tax thing is done. More is coming on his finances. Money laundering should cap it

Nicely.

[grantcart]

9. Its not done, but it is delayed and has to be reframed

And the next time the NYT has more detail Trump will do something outlandish, like fire the head of the CDC to keep people talking about that rather than focusing on activity that is criminal.

After he fires the head of the CDC and the Times starts another round maybe he will pardon Julian Assange.

After that maybe he orders the US fleet to start an embargo on Venezuela.

It is a clearly defined strategy and the media continues to fall for it. They seem to be able to handle only one outrage at a time allowing Trump to 'trump' the most damaging story with other damaging but non fatal stories.

[NewJeffCT]

11. All that it takes is the NY Times printing

or publishing online at least a portion of the tax returns they received showing the $750.

[grantcart]

22. and the next day he will fire the head of the CDC

or any one of a hundred other "outlandish" and "unprecedented stories".

He is very adept at controlling which stories are on the front burner and which are not.

Its not going to help him win the election but it will help him undermine the wide acceptance of criminal liability.

Ultimately I don't think it will be successful but the idea that what he is doing is a "gaffe" or "undisciplined" ignores a much more effective and subtle strategy: lose politically but bury the criminality.

[meadowlander]

38. Agree. The NYT is still analysing his taxes.

Confirmation of indebtedness to Russian oligarchs still to come. That's actually a bigger story than how little he pays in taxes.

[NoMoreRepugs]

4. You hit the nail on the head grantcart - littlehands is a master conman that has the MSM looking

wherever he wants rather than where they should.

[BlueStater]

13. Conman - yes. Master - no.

He’s actually a pretty lousy conman and anyone of average intellect can see through his crap. The fact that anyone falls for his bullshit is more of a statement on how dumb his marks are than his talents as a scam artist.

[uponit7771]

32. +1, our MSM either are idiots or have blinders the size of house walls on

[sweetloukillbot]

5. I'm not sure how a debate performance, or a story not getting discussed is going to stop a DA

Just because the general public isn't talking about it doesn't mean it's going away.

[grantcart]

16. Could not agree more

Not going to stop a DA, and that is his worry.

His only chance to stop the DA is to create such civil and political chaos that the new Administration decides that it is better to have a clean break than to have violence and litigation for a year.

It matches 100% to his strategy with the banks. He decided on the best possible solution for himself and then told the banks that if they didn't agree that he would run the properties into the ground, drag out the litigation and destroy any value that the properties had beyond the dirt on the ground.

The banks caved every time and gave him sweetheart deals and he learned a lesson: never agree to anything and never go quietly. He is willing for people to die, for shooting to start in the streets if he can get a negotiating advantage.

I only hope that we never negotiate, that we are willing to stand up to this "mini-Hitler" and prosecute.

[sweetloukillbot]

27. That won't stop the states though nt

[grantcart]

31. Correct but in the warped mind of Donald Trump I believe that is his goal

I don't think that he is interested in a pardon but will threaten the new administration with legal challenges, civil unrest and actions by armed militia.

So how could this be accomplished?

A joint "no prosecution" agreement with both federal and state prosecutors that would make an agreement that there would be no criminal charges but that the states would be free to pursue civil litigation.

I don't agree that we should agree, but suggest that is what Trump is thinking.

If you accept that Trump realizes (and I think that is clear) that he is going to lose then the only thing that matters is no criminal prosecutions.

He can take the civil losses. He is going to establish some kind of "Trump club" where is devotees can gain an intimate relationship with him.

Ten million idiots paying $ 19.99 a month and he generates $ 200 million a month for subscription TV or whatever. He isn't worried about the money, he is worried about the jail time.

[ismnotwasm]

6. Always hated the "Trump is stupid" take

He is amoral not stupid, and sometimes they look like the same thing

[brush]

15. Oh, please. He's a stupid mfer to be in the situation he is in. Amoral, sure...

those two things are not mutually exclusive. The fucker had a head start of 400 million dollars, blew it and now owes at least twice that much, some say much more. I call that being a stupid motherfu_ker who is now trying to throw up all kind of distractions to get out of the mess he has made, and is finally getting called to account.

Ya don't see Bloomberg, or Gates or Buffet or Bezos, actually billionaires, self-made ones, trying to throw up distractions so they can somehow remain in the presidency and stay out of jail because of all the financial crimes they commited. No you don't because they are not amoral, stupid idiots.

Again, trump is a stupid idiot trying to stay out of jail. Do not tell me someone who went bankrupt several times running casinos, businesses carefully designed to make money, is not an idiot.

[ismnotwasm]

21. I don't think so

He’s clearly not a Mensa candidate Of course, but the man has lived a opulent life style all of his life, and not honestly or ethnically. He has friends, millions of supporters and a family that sticks by him. He constantly manipulates situations, like wakes up and starts in.


I was raised by a man I think was much like Trump, so my opinion could be projection or experience. I am the only fully functioning sibling, as function lost as we all get older. My brother has OCD and a personality disorder, my sister is a drug addict and crazy. She was a fully functioning adult until her late 40’s. My Dad wasn’t stupid, but he was emotionally limited and amoral in certain areas.

I ran away from home as soon as I could. Long story.

After my Dads death— few mourned him- my Mom is happiest by herself, peace and quiet in what was once constant drama and abuse.

[brush]

23. Went bankrupt running casinos.

[ismnotwasm]

39. Paid zero consequences

What I’m saying is he is a a piece of shit, low level mobster with just enough money to get away with every thing That doesn’t make him stupid. If he doesn’t get prosecuted after his presidency he will really have gotten away with everything

[BlueStater]

40. It's that dumbass "Apprentice" show that saved him from complete ruin.

Without it, he probably would have suffered the consequences of his incompetence.

[ismnotwasm]

42. But he *did* the apprentice (which I'm proud to say I never watched, not one time)

Much like he ran for president. He layed the ground work for several years, found his group, gambled on his popularity.. Look, I’m not saying the man is a genius, or even super bright, just that the “Trump is a dumbass” meme isn’t accurate either.

He is the most repugnant person to me, so repugnant I don’t exactly have the words to describe how I feel, but I don’t think he’s stupid OR an evil mastermind.

[brush]

47. Oh he's a dumbass all right. Anyone who blows a 400m inheritance...

is a dumbass, I don't care how you try to parse it. And then going bankrupt running casinos...please.

[Whiskeytide]

29. I have come to believe he's not really stupid. He made a lot of money ...

... in all of his failed businesses- it was investors, contractors, etc... that took the baths. He learned quickly how to game that system, and he has lived a life of celebrity and fame far beyond his means. The shallow but lavish lifestyle of a con man.

And it’s not really that he’s amoral that makes him look stupid. He IS amoral, but that’s a personality trait, not an intellect measure.

He looks stupid because he simply does not care about anything except himself.

He did poorly in school, supposedly, because he did not care about it. He gets things wrong about how the government works and is structured because he could not care less about any of that. He doesn’t understand or respect science because he has no interest in it and doesn’t care. He misspells things in his tweets because he simply doesn’t give a shit about it.

He’s easy to read and predict once you realize he doesn’t care about anything except himself and his ego. That’s it. But he’s not genuinely stupid. I think we make a mistake sometimes when we perceive him that way.

[BlueStater]

35. I don't think it takes any great intellect to con ignorant people.

You don’t need to to be smart to do it. You just need to lack a conscience.

[Whiskeytide]

44. And while that's true ...

... of his political persona, I think it’s clear that over the years he’s conned a lot of pretty smart entities. Banks, contractors, investment concerns. They eventually caught on and stopped doing business with him, so he turned to foreign sources. They dealt with him because they wanted him as an asset, and could read him like a book. Again, he didn’t care at all about that as long as they gave him what he wanted.

He entered the 2016 race really just to promote his name and perhaps disrupt the process. There has been a lot of suggestion that he never expected to win, and he certainly never acted like it.

But a funny thing happened on the campaign trail. He found that his con was perfectly shaped to trigger a massive following of cultists who had been dismissed and derided for years, and were already amped up on hate. His rallies full of deplorables cheering everything he said fed his ego, so he went more and more extreme with each one. And he dumbed himself down to their level. He morphed into what they wanted.

In the end, I think he found 60m new marks, and conned his way into the White House. He’s been trying to figure out how to exploit that ever since. He’s flouted norms and laws - again because he doesn’t care about such things. He’s pissed off allies because they’re not HIS allies. He’s cozied up to dictators because they stroke his ego.

He is simple and singularly focused on himself. But he’s not stupid in the traditional sense. Fucked up beyond our comprehension, but not low IQ stupid.

[brush]

48. Again, went bankrupt running casinos.

Last edited Wed Sep 30, 2020, 04:46 PM - Edit history (1)

And the latest evidence of his stupidity is that colossally imbecilic performance last night in the debate (did trump somehow think that was brilliant "strategery"?).

Anyone who thinks that wasn't the dumbest shit show ever needs to question their own judgment.

[uponit7771]

34. He's stupid but not complete moron

[lame54]

36. He is stupid with a pass from the Senate...

The Senate can and should stop this but they won't

As long as Trump rubber stamps their court picks the village idiot is free to throw as many tantrums as he wants

Last night did not go well for him

[BlueStater]

7. No, you're giving him way too much credit.

He’s not some criminal mastermind. There’s no deeper meaning behind his unhinged performance last night. That’s genuinely who he is: a spoiled, infantile brat who thinks the entire world revolves around him.

[grantcart]

12. Never said he is a criminal mastermind, in fact the Times reports shows that his network

of third party billing and skimming was very pedestrian and obvious.

Paying an officer (Ivanka) consulting fees at the exact same day and the same amount is criminal grammar school.

What I am suggesting is that he is Public Relations Mastermind.

He has a losing hand and makes a terrible bet and is going to lose his entire bank but what he is really worried about is the guy who is going to stand up with a gun and accuse him of cheating.

Ultimately I don't think he will be successful but he has been successful about controlling which story the entire media talks about and the current kerfuffle is much less damaging than the one that erupted on Sunday night.

[BlueStater]

14. I still don't think he was trying to change any narrative.

If he was, he only succeeded for a day. Everyone will stop talking about the debate by tomorrow. The perception that he’s a shitty, incompetent businessman, on the other hand, will not go away even if everyone isn’t talking about it at the moment.

[grantcart]

17. He did more than succeed by a day, no questions were asked during the debate

about obvious criminal tax evasion including the $ 70 million deduction for the loss of an asset that he declared he had no retained value but in fact kept 5% in violation of the law.

And when it comes up on Wed or Thursday he will simply do something outrageous again like fire the head of the CDC or run a blockade of Valenzuela.

He was successful at a critical point and he will continue to do it for 5 more weeks.

On Monday there were a hundred threads on the tax story and dozens of stories on the channels and today its wiped clean as people are outraged by how nasty, buffoonish and racist he is, all things that were previously established.

[BlueStater]

24. Meh.

If he was asked about it, he’d just lie his ass off or change the subject like he does with everything else. It’s wouldn’t have been a game changer. The cultish 40% who support him will never abandon him no matter what he does. However, he needs more than them to win and he’s doing absolutely nothing to attract independent voters. I’m sure he probably lost quite a few of them last night with his deranged behavior.

[grantcart]

26. Absolutely agree that he needs more than them to win

And in fact he lost ground.

I see a 57% to 43% landslide.

Assume that Trump knows that he is going to lose. His only concern now is to leave without any criminal liability. His PR campaign is designed to advance terrible political stories to bury terrible criminal stories.

[DLCWIdem]

43. But that has been his strategy all along pre NYT tax

That is what he has been doing all along before the taxes came out. First there is a story about protestors then theres a a bigger story about comments made about military, then there's scandal about him saying he doesn't know if he will accept the election results. Its always one scandal to cover up another and distract the publuc. And he has people already covering his ass over the taxes. And it is up to the IRS to no if theres criminality not lay people who only get a cursory look at his tax papers.

[agingdem]

18. Media didn't give him a walk...

last night's media was a collective Chris Wallace...they anticipated the unhinged riffing but they did not anticipate "naked" Trump and his malicious insane vile spewing raw self destruction....we did..they didn't...the complicit media ran out of words...about damn time

[grantcart]

25. they are talking about how "racist", "rude" and "chaotic" he is.

These are all things that are well established.

They are not talking about specific criminal activity.

The media is not "giving him a walk" but they are distracted from the most damaging criminal stories to focus on damaging political stories. That is his objective.

Is the coverage negative to him?

Yes.

Is he dictating which stories the media talks about?

Yes

Is the media concentrating on the more outlandish sensational stories (i.e proud boys) rather than the more mundane criminal stories ( his submission for a refund on $ 70 million based on no ownership of a lost asset when he in fact retained 5% ownership)?

Yes

[agingdem]

33. the media has to deal with what's obvious and what is right now...

he lies...yes they knew that
he uses the Office as his private slush fund...yes they knew that
he's Putin's puppet...yes they knew that...
he's a sexual deviant..yes they knew that...
he's a racist...yes they know that...and on an on...

but last night was a whole new ballgame...the mask of sanity was off and the depraved madman that is the real Trump was on display... the media that created this monster is now at a loss as to how to cover him and they are at a loss for brand new words to describe what they just saw... the old words are just too damn nondescript ...and it's incumbent upon Chris Wallace to lead the way...an unqualified apology to Joe Biden and equal time...

[DemsIn2020]

8. Trump's goal is to be..

Leader of the KKK.. David Dukes better watch what he is drinking.

[EarlG]

10. Maybe...

I agree that Trump was probably happy to get the tax story off the front pages, and have the media talk about something other than COVID. My caveat is that these days I don't think the idea of "distracting" people from other more important news stories is as big a deal as it used to be.

These days the news moves fast, people's attention spans are shorter, and you have to win the news cycle on a moment-by-moment basis. And right now, Trump is LOSING every news cycle, one after another, day after day. (With the possible exception of the SCOTUS nomination, although that has arguably fired up Democrats more than Republicans.)

So in the last week: SCOTUS nomination; 200,000 dead from COVID; Trump saying he won't commit to peaceful transfer of power; Trump announces lame health care executive order; Trump's tax returns revealed; Trump's debate performance... those are just off the top of my head. It's a firehose of news.

There isn't going to be a single bombshell story that completely changes the trajectory of the race -- but I do believe that the effect of all these negative stories is cumulative, and Trump is suffering badly because of it.

[grantcart]

19. I think both Trump and I agree with you re:

There isn't going to be a single bombshell story that completely changes the trajectory of the race -- but I do believe that the effect of all these negative stories is cumulative, and Trump is suffering badly because of it.

Let's assume that Trump is not stupid, especially about numbers.

Assume that he knows that he is suffering at the polls and has less than a 10% chance of winning, and that would require something new and damaging about Biden.

From Trump's point of view if the election is lost then the only important issue is how to frame it.

He wants to bury everything that is criminal and make it a political loss so that after the fact he can label any criminal prosecution as political prosecution, any new 'revelations' as political invention.

And if he can create a cloud of unrest and uncertainty he can offer the new administration what any administration would like: a clear break and a fresh start.

He is going to stir the shit so that he can try and negotiate a global "no prosecution" agreement that would include NY State.

He has really nothing to lose and everything to gain. He knows he has lost the election and now he wants to win the framing to make criminal prosecution as difficult as possible

[EarlG]

28. You're not wrong

Let's just hope he does as bad a job dodging criminal prosecution as he's done trying to get re-elected

[Dream Girl]

41. Death by a thousand cuts.

The tax story has legs. People got it. Just as people got the military suckers and losers. I don’t see how the press can be blamed...it is a giant shit show.

[Thekaspervote]

20. Excellent analysis!

[greenjar_01]

30. Meh

[USALiberal]

37. 100% incorrect! Nt

[DLCWIdem]

45. There's 1 thing he couldn't predict that is Joe's reaction

Your theory seems to imply that he was being outrageous in order to lose. However thats just how tRump is. This debate strategy worked in the Republican primary for tRUMP. He brought Marco Rubio so far down, Marco was questioning the size of his penis. Biden could have took the bait and fell to the low brow especially when tRUMP started smearing his son. Your theory would indicate that he knew for sure Biden would not fall for it.

[grantcart]

46. I am not saying that he was being outrageous in order to lose

I am saying that he knows that the he is likely to lose politically and now he only cares about is limiting his legal liability.

To do that he is willing to distract from stories that show clear criminal activity in order to take it "off the ballot" and reduce calls for a Special Prosecutor.

It means that he is willing to lose additional political points in order to bury stories that have clear criminal implications. There are two important stories this week that have very clear criminal liability attached. One is criminal tax fraud and the other is criminal fraud regarding campaign finance. There are two stories alleging that Parscale is being investigated for using third party companies to skim money from the campaign. Rather than buying media time directly the money is sent to a third party that keeps a percent.

Parscale appeared to be on the verge of suicide Sunday night.

The debate has wiped these two stories off the map at least for a couple of days and in a couple of days the head of CDC is fired or some other outrage to keep people off the criminal charges.

Trump is likely to foment civil unrest, ballot challenges and even multiple electoral slates in order to litigate and create a difficult transition in order to negotiate a "global no prosecution" agreement. Such an agreement might simply agree to no criminal charges but leave the government free to pursue civil penalties. There have already been threads on DU saying that an agreement to get Trump out peacefully would be worth it. I disagree.

If you accept that Trump understands that the election is probably lost then his next objective is clear: no criminal prosecution.