538 now at 80 - 20 For Biden!!! Keep donating, GOTV!!!

[USALiberal]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[Stallion]

1. ...but the Telemundo Poll said...

[JustAnotherGen]

2. Pretend it's flipped

And keep calling MI, WI, OH, PA, MN.

Keep up pressure on the 70K recently franchised in Florida.


It' ain't over until the election is certified!

[lagomorph777]

5. You mean just give up in despair?

That's how most people would behave in that situation.

Fortunately, most of us are too energized by the real results to act as if it's 20/80.

[JustAnotherGen]

17. Where did you get that from?

I just told people - get active.

Do not take our feet off the gas.


I'm more than half way through a 3 year term on my local Democratic Committee.

We have the Borough Registered Voter Advantage, and are working with the Malinowski and Heller (Freeholder) campaigns on lit drops and cross pollination on our calling.

We flipped the Borough and the House Blue in 2018.


We are taking NOTHING for granted. Keep calling, texting, writing post cards.


My candidates win (Campaign Chair this year) - because I assume it is insurmountable and tell them to make one more call, and knock on one more door. We are in the final stretch. Trenton is allowing votes to be counted two weeks prior to election day.

Do the math.

In my mind - it's October 19 in NJ. We are two weeks ahead of everyone else.

My candidates each made 20 calls to their potential democratic party voters yesterday. They call for themselves, for Freeholder, for Malinowski, for Booker, and Joe.

Leave NOTHING to chance and get those freaking ballots in.

[lagomorph777]

18. You said "Pretend it's flipped."

For most people, that would mean "pretend it's completely hopeless."

I can't agree with that advice.

[Blecht]

19. You don't seem to understand statistical analysis

A 20% chance of winning means that if the election were held 5 times, Trump would win in one of them.

That is hardly hopeless for him, so reversing it would not be hopeless for Biden (us).

[lagomorph777]

21. Sure, got it. You go with whatever motivates you. 4/5 odds of losing would discourage me.

And thanks for the insult.

I'm not innumerate; I'm a life-long engineer and math/science geek.

[JustAnotherGen]

28. Yeah - that was kind of insulting

That I agree with.

But as an elected PARTY official - it ain't over until it's over.

I would encourage you, if you have not already -

Get in touch with the Party Precinct leaders, Campaign Chairs, and local committee members.

We take this personally and do NOT want to fail you.

My approach will appear hopeless to you . . . unless you get on a zoom call with me, or sit distanced in my back yard and put your math skills to use.

This morning? I'm worried about any wafflers voting for Trump out of Sympathy that we worked VERY hard this summer to get them from undecided to Biden.

I think ten in my four blocks - only 8 have dropped their votes in the drop box. I need those other two votes.

Its down to this.

I can't fail you.

[JustAnotherGen]

29. Checking In - Bucks County PA needs help

Touch base with those folks or let me know if you want me to connect you.

2008 I was on the ground and driving people to the polls - even though I lived in Somerset County NJ.

We are almost done in Hunterdon County, NJ. October 19th is our deadline since Trenton will allow the Clerks to start counting two weeks before the election. I'm pivoting to Bucks County on the 20th.

[Farmgirl1961]

3. Yes, work as if it's flipped,

Run through the finish line and I want to see 538’s hit over 90%.

[USALiberal]

10. I updated my title! nt

[Statistical]

13. It is certainly possible. The 80/20 is giving Trump a hedge due to time left in the race.

538 Model says if the election was held today it would be 91/9. The 80/20 is based on likely improvements Trump can still make based on remaining time. As we get closer to the election if Trump doesn't close the gap he will drop further towards that 9%.

Encourage everyone to vote. Encourage everyone to vote as early as possible.

[Happy Hoosier]

4. Let's go JOE!!! NT

[angrychair]

6. As far as im concerned

Biden hasn't won until he is standing on the stage taking the oath of office in January.

Meaning we cannot take our foot off the gas until then

Meaning pay attention and call your state legislatures, especially republican legislatures, to make sure the certification process is done correctly.

Do not let up until January

[USALiberal]

11. I updated my title! nt

[angrychair]

26. Awesome

never concede a single point.

Love you OP!

[Chichiri]

7. If the polling remains constant, on election day...

...it will be at 91 to 9.

I don't want that asshole to have even a 9% chance. GOTV like your life depends on it.

[Renaissance Man]

8. Work like we're down by 20 in the polls.

I want this to be the biggest, most humiliating loss this asshole has ever experienced. I want Joe Biden to tell him, "Donald Trump, you're fired!" on November 3, 2020.

Oh, and GIVE to Democratic contenders like Amy McGrath and Jamie Harrison and boot Mitch the Turtle and Lindsey Graham out of office.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. This is great, stay focused for 4-1/2 more weeks

Last edited Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:05 PM - Edit history (2)

Trump, as he entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, which put him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.

And know that undecideds usually break for the challenger.

2020 is not 2016 for multitude of reasons, Trump is going down!

[USALiberal]

20. +1000! nt

[archiemo]

12. GOTV for sure!! n/t

[Neema]

15. 80/20 in a fair election. This election will be anything but fair.

We have to OBLITERATE trump in order to get the win considering every dirty trick the GOP is pulling.

[lunasun]

16. The results I expected in 2016 .. at least trump is sinking post 4 yrs

Was it worth destruction of the US and spread of disease to elect a hater so they could
See hatred of POC In the WH
Turn away refugees n need
Try to knock down ACA just because Obama
Turn the US into xenophobia USA!
Push christofascism
Have favored states ?
A lot are rethinking a personnal loss perhaps due to his leadership
It maybe had to hit them personally or trump said something related to them like military service that pissed them off or people just laughing at trump all the time finally embarrassed them
whatever maybe the tax cuts to the rich .

Don’t care but at least they have left the trump train

If they did not wake up at least they are aggrieved by trump actions enough to not vote for him again

[Klaralven]

22. That's the widest that it has ever been, exceeding the previous 79 - 21 set in late June.

[Demsrule86]

23. I donated 25 even though I remain unemployed as does hubs...Go Joe.

[USALiberal]

24. Thank you! nt

[Klaralven]

25. Real Clear Politics moved Iowa from Trump to Biden on the No Toss Up States Map. Now 359 to 179.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

[lunasun]

27. Iowa ?!! More good news !