This is an unprecedented moment in American political history. Pointing to Boris Johnson's approval surge, which likely was based on sympathy (to a point) is the only real world example we have. You're right that it's not the best example but there is literally no other event or moment that is comparable to what we are about to experience.
The fact is, we don't even know what kind of environment we're going to be dealing with here. It could be a minor bump in the campaign or we could be facing a seriously dark moment in American history where the sitting president is basically dying from this. We just don't know.
And I think that uncertainty, this close to a presidential election, is making people speculate and do just what you tell them not to do and that's to worry.
We worry because this is not a largely settled race now. If this was the day before voting, I'd say the impact is likely not going to be significant - but a month is a long time for things to develop. The reality is that we're looking at a handful of realistic scenarios that absolutely can play out. Some are going to benefit Biden. Some are not. It's callous to discuss but it does need discussing.
1. Trump recovers with minimal issue - maybe he doesn't even get sick beyond a sore throat. He's back on the campaign trail saying, I" beat COVID! I kicked its ass! Your President is healthy like an ox - not like Sleepy Joe over there coughing up a storm!" - this can play two ways: it can make him look strong or it could end any sympathy he was receiving.
2. Trump gets hit pretty hard but not deathly hard. This keeps him out of commission for the next few weeks, though, we get updates and whatnot about his condition. It could be tough. He could be having difficulty. How does America respond to that?
3. Trump gets seriously sick from this and, like Johnson, has to be taken to the hospital. This would potentially put Pence in charge, even if temporarily. In this instance, Trump won't be campaigning. I'm sure there will be constant thoughts and prayers but also likely significant questions about whether he can even continue being president. Boris Johnson tested positive on March 27th. Boris Johnson was then moved to Intensive Care on April 6th, so, a week and a half after testing positive. There were rumors he was put on a ventilator. Nothing substantiated at that point (he wasn't). Johnson was eventually released from the ICU on April 13th, a little over two weeks from announcing he had tested positive.
Scenario three has two outcomes: Trump's conditions, like Boris', improve significantly or they don't and he's eventually put on a ventilator and forced to remain on one for days, if not weeks. If the first part happens, Trump is possibly taken to Walter Reed on, say, October 13th. His conditions eventually improve and he's released on October 20th. There could be a lot of goodwill for him by that point. How much, though? I don't know. How much voting had taken place during that process? Again, I don't know. How many Americans are fearful of voting for Trump if they're not even sure he'll be alive on January 20th, 2021? It's a good question.
But if he does not improve and is put on a ventilator for weeks, and isn't released from the hospital until the end of October, what impact does that have? Do people refuse to vote for him knowing he may die and therefore go to Biden? Do they vote out of sympathy? I don't know. Again, no one knows because we've never faced this before.
4.Trump dies between now and November 3rd. This is the darkest scenario. Pence becomes president but the ballots are already out. Does Pence get a sympathy boost and the Trump-Pence ticket wins, even with Trump dead, therefore guaranteeing a Republican president voted on by the electors (remember, it's the electors who decide. The RNC can ask for them to vote on Pence but it's not a guarantee, though, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't). Does Biden contest the election since his opponent is dead? Does he have grounds to? What if Biden wins in this scenario - does the GOP contest the election on grounds Trump was dead? That's likely the most difficult scenario we could deal with.
5. Biden tests positive too.
This scenario is basically everything above but with Biden as well.
To be honest, the best scenario politically is likely the first - Trump gets it, doesn't get terribly sick and we move on. The worst is both get it, both get seriously sick and we start figuring out whether we should even have a presidential election.
= new reply since forum marked as read
