BTRTN 2020 Election Snapshot: Trump Takes Desperate Gambles as Dems' Trifecta Odds Continue to Rise
Born To Run The Numbers with its latest, up-to-the-minutes snapshot of the Presidential race, and the battles for control of the Senate and the House. Everything continues to tick upward for the Democrats:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/10/btrtn-2020-election-snapshot-trumps.html
Excerpts: "The political/election landscape has been rocked by four legitimate “surprises” over the last 20 days: the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the outing of Donald Trump’s taxes, the stunningly savage Trump performance in the first presidential debate (universally polling as a clear Joe Biden win) and, the absolute earthquake of them all, Trump’s contraction of COVID-19 and the remarkably confusing spinning of his true condition over the weekend, culminating with his ill-advised return to the White House...
"Trump and his campaign advisers know they are woefully behind in the presidential race, in polls, in money, and now in physical vitality. And so they are down to two desperate strategies to keep Trump in the White House beyond January 20, 2021. The first is to turn Trump’s bout with COVID-19 into a giant (and wildly premature) macho recovery story, the tale of a valiant president personally overcoming the scourge, proving the virus is nothing to fear and thus should not stand in the way of America’s economic recovery. And the second is, of course, is to delegitimize the election...
"As of this moment, the Democrats continue to have a very good chance of pulling off a 'trifecta' – Biden winning the presidency, flipping the Senate, and maintaining control of the House. At this stage, we see Biden with an 83% chance of winning, up a tick mark since the 82% from two weeks ago...The Democrats need to flip a net of +3 seats, along with a Biden win, to gain control of the Senate. That need seems more likely than not – we now have increased the odds from 67% from 71%.... We are being kind to put the odds of the Dems holding the House at 99%; we are simply allowing for the highly unlikely threat of a meteor landing."