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Nate (538) puts Trump's chances of winning at just 5% if the election were held today
sarah: Nate, Trump is losing a little ground each day in our forecast if his standing in the polls doesn’t improve, right? Tell us more about that, and what that means for Trump’s ability to close the gap between him and Biden at this point.
natesilver: Trump’s chances are at 15 percent in our forecast now, but my guess is that he’d be at something like 5 percent if the election were held today.
He’d need a VERY large polling error to win if Biden is up 10 points nationally and 7 points or so in the tipping-point states. So most of his comeback chances still stem from being able to turn the race around somehow, and debates are one way to do that … maybe the best way at this stage.
natesilver: Trump’s chances are at 15 percent in our forecast now, but my guess is that he’d be at something like 5 percent if the election were held today.
He’d need a VERY large polling error to win if Biden is up 10 points nationally and 7 points or so in the tipping-point states. So most of his comeback chances still stem from being able to turn the race around somehow, and debates are one way to do that … maybe the best way at this stage.
In the podcast on if Trump needs the debates.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-trump-need-the-next-debate/
Yes yes only election day counts, GOTV, stay focused. I just thought it is interesting to note that Trump's 15% is based on the value of the time left in the race in which Trump could turn things around. His chances as they stand right now if he doesn't improve are even worse.