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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forumsi think i finally understand pelosi's push for the 25th amendment:
i've struggled to understand pelosi pursuing the 25th amendment for donnie. obviously, he's in need of the boot, but constitutionally, the 25th amendment requires rather more than removal via impeachment, which has already failed.
if pelosi thought we could get pence, half the cabinet, and 2/3rds of both houses to agree, which is what is required for the 25th, then we would have already just removed him via impeachment, which only requires 1/2 the house and 2/3rds of the senate. much easier.
and the same sick political logic that led republicans to block removal via impeachment remains.
until donnie loses in november.
then he simply becomes a madman bent on destroying anything and everything, and republican interests turn to damage control and figuring out how to make best use of the lame duck period.
at that point, donnie becomes virtually all downside and virtually no upside for republicans. they need someone reliable to nominate and approve as many judges as they can in the couple months remaining, and they no longer benefit from all of donnie's chaos. it only represents downside risk for businesses and rich people.
it clicked when i saw this opinion by krugman: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214253445
the lame duck session, once donnie loses, will be a disaster *for republican interests*, not just for america.
at that point, i think republicans would be open to removing him and replacing him with a more stable pence, and the political cover of removing him for medical reasons (25th) would be more palatable than removing him for having done anything wrong (impeachment).
pence would go along with it as he gets to be president. republicans in congress, or at least the senate, might go along with it so they can ensure more judges. the cabinet might still be a problem as they are still loyal to donnie, but part of pelosi's plan may be to replace the cabinet's role in the 25th amendment with a new independent commission, something that is permitted by the 25th amendment.
this would require overriding the inevitable veto from donnie, but if she can wrangle the 2/3rds of each house that she needs to kick donnie out via the 25th anyway, then those same congresspeople are enough to override a veto, enabling them to bypass the cabinet.
so i'm now thinking that the push for the 25th amendment now is not about october electoral politics, it's about kicking donnie out asap after he loses and before he can destroy america out of vengeance for his humiliating defeat.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)Good work.
Statistical
(19,264 posts)certainly not with a veto-proof majority.
This is drawing attention to the issue not a legislative solution.
If Pence goes along it is likely the cabinet will too. That makes Pence acting President for 21 days which at least reduces the damage Trump can do even if not confirmed by Congress.
Of course anyone thinking Pence will do the right thing is just fooling themselves. Trump could start shooting white house staffers in the face on national TV and I have my doubts that Pence would invoke the 25th.
If you had the votes to pass that you would have the votes to simply impeach Trump and that unlike an 25th legislation completely bypasses Pence.
unblock
(52,245 posts)it doesn't really increase visibility that he's sick, and it undermines the eventual mandate we win by winning in november.
if donnie is widely seen as medically unfit for office, then a biden victory doesn't have any great meaning. republicans and the media would be able to say he won because donnie was unhealthy or dumb luck of timing of a temporary illneess.
but if the media doesn't over-cover donnie's health, then a biden victory represents a clear rejection of not just donnie as an individual, but of the whole republican party and their hate and contempt for the majority of americans.
and yeah, there's no way in hell republicans will go along with any of this prior to the election.
but as soon as donnie loses, especially if he loses big, the whole dynamic changes. at that point, i think republicans may well prefer pence to serve out the last couple months.
Statistical
(19,264 posts)Pence has zero spine. Pence will not invoke the 25th. People hoping and dreaming Pence will do the right thing are delusional.
In Pence's mind he is going to rally the Trumpers and win the Presidency back in 2024. That won't happen if he uses the 25th against his master.
This bill will not pass and even if it did Pence absolutely will not lift a single finger against his master.
patricia92243
(12,597 posts)if for only 21 days. His pension would be more, get his own presidential library, earn a lot more on speeches when his time is over. etc. etc.
Nobody ever remembers a VP. A President - good or bad - will go down in history forever. Big temptation for Pence.
idziak4ever1234
(1,257 posts)Lonestarblue
(10,011 posts)If Trump is allowed to wreak as much destruction as possible after losing, voters will blame Republicans, and they have a lot of Senate seats up in 2022. Pence will run for president in 2024. He would have a better claim by helping to kick Trump out and preventing the damage. It all depends on the cabinet. Not all would go along. For example, Pompeo will also run for president in 2024. He might refuse just to prevent Pence from becoming president even for a few days.
Im eager to hear what Pelosi has to say.
Statistical
(19,264 posts)Last edited Fri Oct 9, 2020, 10:36 AM - Edit history (1)
Now hardcore Trumpers aren't the entire Republican party but they are a significant portion. At least for the next couple election cycles it is unlikely anyone gets the nomination without appealing to Trumpers.
If Pence boots Trump out of office his political career is over. Now just between you and me Pence's political career is likely over regardless and since that is the case he has little to lose and should invoke the 25th. However Pence strikes me as one of those idiots who think they are the hero of their own story.
Look I will be happy to be proven wrong. Even Pence would be better than Trump in a lame duck session but I don't see it happening.
BComplex
(8,053 posts)of attack that pence seems to be softer on.
COL Mustard
(5,899 posts)That's for sure.
PJMcK
(22,037 posts)All that you wrote makes sense.
Speaker Pelosi is far too savvy to engage in a fool's errand and your point about the Congressional commission being allowed under the 25th is just what I was thinking, too. If she can twist enough Republicans' arms, your scenario seems very plausible.
Enjoy your weekend.
tanyev
(42,564 posts)The media has been reluctant to 'go there' on Trump so she has to lead them there. Republicans can either twist themselves into knots explaining how Donny's perfectly fit and sane, or they can get on board.
WhiteTara
(29,718 posts)cbdo2007
(9,213 posts)via the independent commission. Our leaders need to know the true mental/physical state of the President and that is impossible to determine without an honest evaluation from commission chosen doctors. If Trump doesn't go along with it, that will give them grounds for removal as you direct above.
localroger
(3,627 posts)I suspect the White House COVID mess and Trump's painfully inappropriate reaction to it have been the last straw for a lot of Republicans who don't dare say so in public -- yet. Pelosi wouldn't be going out on this limb if there were no possible constructive result. As top Dem though she can say what the Republicans aren't supposed to be allowed to think, and start getting the chess pieces lined up in case Donnie tries to burn down the country after a humiliating defeat in the election. The real hope is probably that between electoral defeat, the then public turning of many Republicans, and the Dems waving the 25th, Donnie can be persuaded to pick up his toys and go home to declare victory as he has always done in the past. It doesn't take 1/2 or 2/3 of anybody to accept a resignation.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
JI7
(89,251 posts)with AFTER the election and him losing and wanting to destroy everything.
I still question whether Trump has something on Pence also .
Kitchari
(2,166 posts)Very helpful theory - thanks!
Progressive dog
(6,904 posts)as supporting a madman. Pelosi knows that there is no possibilty of removing Trump from office, no matter how deranged he obviously is. If he died, they would drag his corpse out for photo ops and claim that he was resting.
wiggs
(7,814 posts)the likely scorched earth tirade from Trump. We know he could burn all his collaborators...they all own each other. He could expose the crimes and the immorality, especially after getting pardons from Pence. Plus, he could threaten to pull the rabid voters off to a new cult party, leaving the gop with nothing.
For this to happen, they'd have to get Trump on board with a few billions in payoff. And if he goes along, he'd likely prefer to resign rather than be removed.
So I see a golden parachute resignation before a 25th amendment removal. But perhaps that wouldn't stop nancy from dutifully trying the 25th, since it's a worthy, just effort. Lots of good testimony from generals, mental health professionals, former cabinet members, former biographers, his niece.
But we aren't past November 3 yet and they will do whatever they can to avoid getting there.
LuckyCharms
(17,444 posts)2naSalit
(86,646 posts)What I concluded last night. She's making preparations within the parameters of her authority for the post election crazy. November 10th or near then could be when he is dealt with in some way.
lostnfound
(16,180 posts)There is a real risk that the drug addled and angry Donny will take devastating, global-peace-disrupting actions out of spite. Some of the GOP would rather not have the unpredictability of those scenarios.
But also, the real possibility of both Pres and VP becoming incapacitated at the same time in an unclear manner and leaving the supremely corrupt Jarad (playing the role of Wilsons wife) might be too much for even some of the GOP.
George II
(67,782 posts)....Congress to have a say in invoking it in the future.
A lot of people think she's going to try to take some action against trump, but that's not true. She just wants to give Congress a role in future situations like this.
SlogginThroughIt
(1,977 posts)getagrip_already
(14,764 posts)The potus can be removed for incompetency through impeachment. To frame it, a lot of legwork needs to be done.
Pelosi needs to try to get pence to do it via the 25th first for political reasons. Once that fails, she can play the "this is the only path left to us" card. The hearings in the house would be brutal.
Yes, it failed before. But as you noted, post election will be a much different world assuming he loses and the senate flips. You could see horse trading going on behind the scenes- "Ok, we will remove him, but you have to agree to not pack the court or prosecute republicans who broke laws"....
Politics always comes with a price tag, at least where republicans are concerned.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Lazy ass bs.
groundloop
(11,519 posts)I've struggled to understand pelosi pursuing the 25th amendment for donnie. Obviously, he's in need of the boot, but constitutionally, the 25th amendment requires rather more than removal via impeachment, which has already failed.
If Pelosi thought we could get Pence, half the cabinet, and 2/3rds of both houses to agree, which is what is required for the 25th, then we would have already just removed him via impeachment, which only requires 1/2 the house and 2/3rds of the senate. Much easier.
And the same sick political logic that led republicans to block removal via impeachment remains.
Until Donnie loses in November.
Then he simply becomes a madman bent on destroying anything and everything, and republican interests turn to damage control and figuring out how to make best use of the lame duck period.
At that point, Donnie becomes virtually all downside and virtually no upside for republicans. They need someone reliable to nominate and approve as many judges as they can in the couple months remaining, and they no longer benefit from all of Donnie's chaos. It only represents downside risk for businesses and rich people.
It clicked when i saw this opinion by Krugman: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214253445
The lame duck session, once Donnie loses, will be a disaster *for republican interests*, not just for America.
At that point, I think republicans would be open to removing him and replacing him with a more stable Pence, and the political cover of removing him for medical reasons (25th) would be more palatable than removing him for having done anything wrong (impeachment).
Pence would go along with it as he gets to be President. republicans in Congress, or at least the Senate, might go along with it so they can ensure more judges. The cabinet might still be a problem as they are still loyal to Donnie, but part of Pelosi's plan may be to replace the cabinet's role in the 25th amendment with a new independent commission, something that is permitted by the 25th amendment.
This would require overriding the inevitable veto from Donnie, but if she can wrangle the 2/3rds of each house that she needs to kick Donnie out via the 25th anyway, then those same Congresspeople are enough to override a veto, enabling them to bypass the cabinet.
So I'm now thinking that the push for the 25th amendment now is not about October electoral politics, it's about kicking Donnie out asap after he loses and before he can destroy america out of vengeance for his humiliating defeat.
45
unblock
(52,245 posts)I'm sure e.e.cummings would agree as well.
We all have our writing style and mine includes generally ignoring the shift key. I happen to be on my iPhone now so it does what it does, whatever, I don't care.
Personally, I think capital letters are generally useless at best and convey negative emotions at worst.
But to each his/her own, I have no problem with your writing style or pretty much anyone else's. I'm more interested in the ideas conveyed.
OnDoutside
(19,960 posts)unblock
(52,245 posts)Wash. state Desk Jet
(3,426 posts)satisfy those who are compelled to correct and serve ! Grammar police !
Fiendish Thingy
(15,622 posts)The first 21 day segment, if timed sometime next week, would remove Trump from power through the election, ensuring his defeat. If they couldnt get 2/3 of congress to support removing him for the remainder of his term, Pence and cabinet could reassert the presidents unfitness in a new letter to the senate...lather, rinse, repeat in 21 day chunks until Jan 20. If Trumps unfitness wasnt apparent the first suspension, it would become increasingly apparent in following attempts, as he melts down in real time for all to see.
Celerity
(43,406 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,622 posts)A president might argue that each 21 day suspension must be for a separate incapacity, not a continuance of the original issue/incident, but there is no precedent, because that clause of the 25th has never been invoked before.
To get to Inauguration Day, it would take 4-5 21 day suspensions, although after the first, Trump might be so unhinged and damaged, the Congress just might reach 2/3 support.
Celerity
(43,406 posts)A nuclear event is at least somewhat remotely possible with a truly deranged Trump breaking down into a raw lather of psychosis.
oregonjen
(3,338 posts)I want to see drumpf prosecuted for his crimes.
unblock
(52,245 posts)Of course, I fully expect Donnie to pet pence be president for a few hours on January 20 anyway precisely for this.
Cozmo
(1,402 posts)Nancy inferred that it was to take place today at 10:15 ET
True Blue American
(17,985 posts)Covered the whole thing. Cable did not.
JCMach1
(27,559 posts)I am on same meds 7 Days out of hospital. I can assure you they are lying and dangerously covering up his disability.
shanti
(21,675 posts)themaguffin
(3,826 posts)Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)yaesu
(8,020 posts)network is no friend to the left.
themaguffin
(3,826 posts)Silent3
(15,219 posts)Not just being vengeful, they will want Biden to inherit the worst wreck possible. They will do anything to make sure that no matter what Biden can manage to do, the public will be unhappy with the results, and put Republicans back in power in 2022. At which point Republicans will block all further progress for the next two years.
And, unfortunately, the American public has proven they're capable of that level of political amnesia time and again, and would be likely to reward Republicans for using such tactics.
LymphocyteLover
(5,644 posts)I think it depends on just on how much damage they see and how much it hurts them
Silent3
(15,219 posts)No, the only hope I can see for Republicans working for the public good is that doing the right thing to help the country has a self-serving side to it that I'm not seeing yet.
LymphocyteLover
(5,644 posts)was really negatively impacted. They might feel it more if Trump gets absolutely blown out in the election.
True Blue American
(17,985 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,773 posts)LymphocyteLover
(5,644 posts)could piss off Republicans and centrists and hurt Biden. I don't see it but I guess some people are very worried about it.
cayugafalls
(5,641 posts)Mental weakness might just be what drives him over the edge.
The picture of a drooling, broke, incarcerated trump is so delicious, I won't need dessert for years...
ThoughtCriminal
(14,047 posts)Are not going to be looking at damage control. They are going to be practicing whatever "Scorched Earth" they can pull off and planning nothing but obstruction in hopes of repeating 2010.
eggplant
(3,911 posts)Trump would have to drop dead or resign for Pence to get the brass ring. A subtle point, but it means Pence doesn't get to be "46". That honor will go to Biden.
OnDoutside
(19,960 posts)losing, and Trump could turn around to land the blame on the GOP.
unblock
(52,245 posts)using his power to keep other republicans in line.
the way he's becoming more erratic and his passion for vengeance suggests that after the election he might blame other republicans for not helping him enough, or in any event just try to burn the place down out of spite.
at that point, the interests of republican politicians shifts to just get rid of him, and his illness, treatment, and the 25th give them political cover to say that support him and what he stands for but he's just not medically fit.
as i said, though, those same reasons undermine the meaning and impact of a biden victory,....
OnDoutside
(19,960 posts)upturn by Labor Day, and then they would go their own way without him. That day came and went, and they still haven't jettisoned him....maybe in another week or two ?
Qutzupalotl
(14,315 posts)She said it was for future presidents.
But now that its being talked about again, maybe, maybe, theyll be open to it in the lame duck. God knows his condition is only going to get worse.
Dark n Stormy Knight
(9,760 posts)about an already obvious madman, now literally on steroids, in command of our military and the nuclear codes. Ffs.
Blue Owl
(50,402 posts)eppur_se_muova
(36,266 posts)Then Uglicans would have no chance to exculpate themselves of their support of him, and would remain in bad odor w/voters for a decade.
peggysue2
(10,830 posts)I like the way you think!
BainsBane
(53,035 posts)from office, at least temporarily. Pelosi isn't playing games with the constitution.
canetoad
(17,167 posts)Nancy is:
a) Making a statement about his lack of capabilities for general consumption
b) Reminding the US that a lapdog VP and acting cabinet, in thrall of an authoritarian president, are hardly going to exectute the 25th.
c) Providing a remedy to the above.
onenote
(42,714 posts)There is no chance the Raskin/Pelosi bill gets passed and implemented during the lame duck. Have you read the bill? It sets up a complex process. It will be the subject of lengthy hearings before it ever comes to a vote. And even if there was enough time for it to be considered by and passed by both the House and even if you were right that there were enough votes in the Senate to overcome a republican filibuster and pass it there, it will be vetoed.
Could Pence and the cabinet start the process without waiting for the medical commission? Sure, but the Raskin/Pelosi bill gives them cover not to do so ... they can say that if this was a situation where the president was unconscious and literally unable to perform the duties of the presidency, they might act, but the question of his mental capacity --- not whether he can perform his duties but whether he can perform them rationally -- is not something they are in a position to decide.
There around 78 days from election day to inauguration day. The likelihood of Republicans helping Pelosi to fast track a bill that she herself has publicly said is not intended to apply to Trump -- zero.
Remember -- the standard under the 25th is whether the president can perform his duties. Disagreeing with what he does or how he does it doesn't mean he's unable to do it.