Smerconish: There's a feeling this thing is getting away from Trump, It comes down to GOTV efforts

[UCmeNdc]

in key states:

[LizBeth]

1. Nation gets sucked into the feel. I am so discouraging my FB Republican friends with

the euphoria of victory and the shaming defeat Trump is already experiencing. An hopeless cause.

[regnaD kciN]

2. Two factors Smerconish is missing here...

1) The polling organizations have changed their model since 2016 to favor whites with no college education. In other words, the polls are already "skewed/unskewed" (depending on your opinion) in Trump's favor, so a 7-point lead for Biden would not be equivalent to a 7-point lead for Clinton in 2016.

2) Most of the polls he cites were post-"grab 'em by the pussy" and pre-Comeygate. Unless you see a similar "scandal" hitting Biden, it's doubtful you'll see the numbers tighten near the end by just enough to let Republicans benefit from their EC advantage.

[Thekaspervote]

3. I watched this, and yes he pointed out polls for Biden that looked exactly like HRC in 16

I knew I had seen where Biden’s lead was better especially in MI, PA, and WI and I was right.

According to RCP dotard led in all 3 states just b4 the election. smerconish is not usually a both siderism kinda guy, but this sure looks like it

[regnaD kciN]

4. It's a matter of cherry-picking results...

The polling average in the battleground states showed a considerably-narrower lead for Clinton in '16 than Biden today. But, if you pick specific polls in isolation, you can paint a very different picture. Notice how Smerconish invariably leads with a poll showing HRC with a bigger lead than we have now, to get people's attention, but then the other polls he cites for the same state show a considerably larger lead this year. Gotta have that horse race, don'cha know?

[Wounded Bear]

5. Over 8 million already voted, last I heard...

assume it will be over 10 mill by Monday, though I guess they won't tally them over the weekend.

We could have a 3rd of the electorate already voted by Nov 1.

[Yavin4]

6. His final sentence explains the disconnect between the polls and the results. Turnout.

Whatever the reason for this decline in turnout — be it failure of Clinton and the Democratic Party to engage their political base or challenges faced by voters due to new photo identification laws — low voter turnout favored Republican candidates, and the drop could have been the difference between Obama's win in 2012 and Clinton's loss in 2016.

https://www.wiscontext.org/how-and-where-trump-won-wisconsin-2016

This page explains it all. Low voter turnout killed Clinton.

[doc03]

9. In recent history Democrats have never won unless we had a young charismatic candidate. Like they

say Democrats fall in love Republicans fall in line. Republicans in this area are more fired up than any time I can remember.
I just pray we have a overwhelming turnout.

[doc03]

7. I live on the border of Ohio and western Pa

I think unless there is an overwhelming turnout in
the urban areas Trump can win in PA and more so in Ohio.
The Trump supporters here are going to turn out and vote for him again. I am really worried he will pull it out again.

[OrlandoDem2]

10. Yes yes yes yes. It comes down to the Philly suburbs. We need all hands on deck to GOTV!!

[brush]

8. This guy poses as impartial but specializes in FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt).

He's trying to make it seem that the polls are showing Biden's lead very similar to Clinton's in 2106 while not mentioning the 215,000 dead from covid, the millions unemployed because of trump's bungling response to it, the food lines, the newly spiking covid cases and deaths, and the fact that trump himself can't protect himself, his family and the White House from covid. Not to mention there won't be a Comey letter this year.

The repugs were hoping the Durham investigation would have the same effect but Barr himself has admit that there's nothing there and it won't be finished before the election.

Take this guy with multiple grains of salt.

[beachbumbob]

11. I see the GOP voter is confused on what method to vote,

the confusion started by trump.