538 National Poll: 2016 vs today

[catbyte]

Link to tweet

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%.

But beyond deficit, even more damning for Trump is the 5.9% undecided/3rd party share - less than half of 12.5% share four years ago. Far fewer late deciders.

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Replying to @NateSilver538

Biden's lead in our national polling average is up to 10.3 points. There's no sign that things are getting better for Trump; the ABC/Post poll showing him -12 postdates his leaving the hospital. The USC tracker has also been getting worse for Trump.



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Interesting that that thing is only .1% higher than in 2016. He hasn't expanded his cult one bit.

[Ananda62]

1. Undecideds

I don’t understand how ANYONE could still be undecided. These people must be living in caves somewhere 🤷🏽‍♀️

[ThoughtCriminal]

29. Republicans undecided on abandoning Trump

If they are, I hope that they stay home since they would likely vote for Republicans down ballot even if they don't vote for Trump.

It's not like they are good at making choices.

[bearsfootball516]

2. It also shows how brutally unpopular Hillary was, through no fault of her own.

Biden is running nearly seven points ahead of her.

[Yavin4]

3. And they're essentially the same candidate policy-wise.

There's not much daylight between the two. Don't rule out misogyny.

[redstateblues]

6. our candidate's unfavorables in 2016 were lots worse

[Yavin4]

8. But not on policy.

Misogyny was a driver of her unfavorables.

[Sherman A1]

12. To a degree you are correct, however Joe and Kamala are I believe much more

personable and simply comes off better with folks. I don't think misogyny is the entire answer.

[Buckeyeblue]

25. I agree with you. They both connect with people.

[PTWB]

26. I don't know about that.

30 years of rightwing smears played a roll. I also don't think HRC was particularly charismatic or convincing even when being perfectly genuine. That fact was compounded by what appeared to be a very focus-group-oriented messaging campaign.

HRC was supremely qualified - one of the single most qualified candidates every to run for the office - but she had issues outside of her qualifications.

[radius777]

27. +1. Misogyny and small-town bias of the EC.

Biden is an older white male who hails from small town America, which has an outsized role in elections due to the Electoral College, gerrymandering, voter supression, etc.

It just shows that all politics are identity politics, because Hillary and Joe are ideologically similar, of the same generation, etc. Yet Hillary received (and still receives) much more hate directed at her and is punished more severely for her 'mistakes'.

[DeminPennswoods]

10. Sadly, yes

nt

[peggysue2]

16. It breaks my heart but it's absolutely true

Hillary was demonized ever since she stepped into the national arena. Biden has not experienced that kind of hatred. His approval/disapproval numbers are pretty neutral. Governing/policy-wise, there's not much of a difference between the two. And then, there was the sexism, ugly and nonstop. I'm hoping Harris will begin to shift the perceptions about women leaders. I think she has a very good chance of doing just that.

We shall see.

[DLCWIdem]

4. This is good for those that are concerned and saying the polling was the same as 2016

However, the only poll that matters is on election day. So vote. And we should be telling people to plan their vote and vote early if they can

[beachbumbob]

5. 2016 election has zero relevance to 2020. People looking at 2016 are wasting

their time. 2018 is the election to look at

[catbyte]

7. I thought it was interesting that his numbers have not moved in 4 years. Sorry you didn't.

[beachbumbob]

9. Trumps numbers do not matter, the anger and energy of the opposition does.

And been building for 4 fucking years and 2018 was and remains the spring board for 2020, not 2016.

[Sherman A1]

13. I disagree

2020 is the election to look at. I do not see either 2016 or 18 as offering much in the way of information that is relevant. Neither had a pandemic in the mix.

[TwilightZone]

14. 2018 was the major shift.

It does indeed provide some very good information on 2020. It was a referendum on Trump and foreshadowed where we are now. especially in the areas of voter registration numbers and turnout. 2020 will look just like it.

[Sherman A1]

15. We will see

I don't see much in history to draw upon for this election.

[Doodley]

11. Trump has kept his same base (IMO racists and other bigots will always support a racist), but

opposition to Trump has been energized in a way it wasn't in 2016. It is clear far more oppose Trump and are willing to vote Biden as a vehicle for that opposition than support Trump.

[smirkymonkey]

19. +1000

[andym]

17. Trump has the Fox News/talk radio crowd-- brainwashed

and those with making abortion illegal as their key issue. Not sure how many others he has.

[SoonerPride]

18. This is not 2016

[Marius25]

20. I don't get how Trump's numbers are the same.

We've been seeing a lot of people who voted for him in 2016 say they aren't voting for him this year. Should his number be significantly lower?

[Stuart G]

22. Come election day, his numbers will be much lower..November 3,..9pm, Eastern Time..

The numbers will not be the same as 2016. Just wait and see,,,,
How low Trump's numbers will be,
That is the key,
And Donald Trump will flee....

Oh well.......I tried.....

[honest.abe]

23. Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016.

His polling now is more than 4 points less than that.

[Statistical]

30. Maybe a bit lower but probably a lot.

Saw one poll that shows 92% of people who voted for Trump in 2016 will again. So yeah there is some erosion but sadly not as much as you think.

Most people who voted for Trump got EXACTLY what they wanted and they want more.

The only good news is Trump's base is 40% of the population not 60% because with cultish support like that the country would be doomed if his base was any larger.

[onenote]

21. real clear politics average at the end of the 2016 campaign tells a somewhat different story.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

[cbdo2007]

24. The trend is more important than the number...

I dont have the graphic to post but I'd you look at the Clinton trend vs the Biden trend, Clinton bounced up and down and there were even times where it got really close.

On Biden though he has been 8-10 points ahead for MONTHS and his average and Trump's averages are extremely stable. of course we all need to vote bit Biden just needs to glide on through and let Trump be an idiot and this should be an easier win than Clinton would have been.

[radius777]

28. It is different but has its own challenges.

2020 is much more favorable terrain on paper for us; but the reality is we are in the middle of a pandemic with unprecedented levels of mail in voting in states that lack a history of doing it. Mail-in voting during the primaries across the country saw a relatively high rate of 'spolied ballots' (those discarded on technicalities). Polls show Dem voters are heavily the ones using mail in, where GOP voters are going in person. Then add in the typical GOP voter suppression tactics and this election is far from certain. Trump/Turtle are desperate and will do anything to hold onto power, and we have to hope our Dem lawyers etc are ready to fight as hard as Repubs do. We can't have another 2000 situation where we were played (Brooks Brothers Riot, etc) and a RW Supreme Court gave the election to Bush.

So while things look good on paper, in reality we need to vote like our lives depend on it and be prepared to battle it out afterwards if necessary.