Expert warns Michigan race is so close Democrats might not win back the US Senate

[tinrobot]

A political expert is pointing to the latest New York Times/ Sienna poll that puts incumbent U.S. Senator Gary Peters, Democrat of Michigan, just one point above his challenger, Republican John James, a West Point grad.

“A major red flag for Democrats,” tweets Daniel Nichanian, an expert on local elections and voting rights, who is the founder and editorial director of The Appeal: Political Report.

“NYT/Siena has Senator Gary Peters leading GOP challenger John James by just 1% (43/42), even as Biden leads 48/40 in the same sample,” Nichanian adds.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/major-red-flag-expert-warns-michigan-race-is-so-close-democrats-might-not-win-back-the-us-senate/

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Perspective

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Mike 03]

5. Thanks, this is edifying.

It still looks like we have a good shot.

It would be horrible if we lost the senate.

[MFM008]

2. New poll today shows

Biden up by 8.

It might help.

[brooklynite]

4. In the same poll, Peters is up by one...

However you feel about polling, that points to people willing to split their tickets.

[qazplm135]

17. it doesn't point to anything

why people continue to pay attention to singular polls instead of polling averages is beyond me.

If the polling average shows him in trouble, then worry.

A single poll? I don't care if it says he wins by 20 or loses by 10, it goes on the average pile.

[brooklynite]

18. Not the point.

I'm not pointing to a one point margin as significant. I'm pointing to a poll in which 7% say they'll vote for Biden and James. Whether that number is 2,3 or 8, it's an issue.

[qazplm135]

19. pointing a single poll about ANYTHING

shows a fundamental lack of understanding of how polls work.

And no, if the number is 2 percent, it's not much of an issue.

[brooklynite]

20. 83,000 people voting for Biden and not supporting a Democratic Senate. Got it.

[qazplm135]

21. clearly you don't "got it"

except a desire to freak out about a single poll.

[DarthDem]

23. It's a single poll

A single poll. By itself it doesn't show anything. See? (I know you don't want to.)

[Omaha Steve]

3. You can donate to Peters here

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/gary-peters-2

[ananda]

7. Just donated to Peters!

Thanks!

[cry baby]

16. Thx for the link...made it easy to donate! nt

[sunonmars]

6. Yet another poll 2 days ago had him up 10%, that got no mention in the media.

Too many undecideds in this NYT one, which is crap.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. Horse Race!

Never underestimate the media's need for a horse race. They've been begging for it in the Presidential race, but Biden is pulling away. So they have to write about something.

Watch, Biden will get up by 12 in the composite, then it will fall back to 10 or 11 and the media will lead with the "tightening" narrative.

Biden is surging right now in an almost unprecedented way, that's the story right now, but you won't see the networks leading with that. He was up 6.6 in the polling average just over 3 weeks ago, now he's up 10.6. To swing an election 4 points in 3 weeks simply doesn't happen. For perspective, the Access Hollywood tape gave Hillary at most a 2 point surge.

A race that was around 7 points for months just went to almost 11 in a short period of time. That is a massive story!

[roamer65]

9. James is not going to win it.

[Roland99]

10. Details of NYT/Siena are 29% Dem, 29% Rep, 35% IND. Also, 41% voted trump in 2016, 40% for Clinton

poll shows a large number of undecideds still



EDIT: OOPS! Those are numbers for WI. See my other reply for MI

[LiberalFighter]

14. Sampling numbers don't seem right.

[Roland99]

15. I just double checked. Didn't realize it had Wisconsin, too. HERE are MI party breakdowns....

Party Identification
Democrat 32%
Republican 33%
Independent/Other 29%


Not sure how 6% don't qualify as "other" unless it means Green/Libertarian which, for some reason, aren't counted as "Other"

[edhopper]

11. 600 likely voters

+ or - 4.6%

[Jarqui]

13. I would not be so quick to rely on one poll

RCP has Peters +4.9 in poll of polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mi/michigan_senate_james_vs_peters-6964.html

538 shows no polls with Peters behind
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/michigan/

[calguy]

22. Thay said the same thing about Michigan last time.....

turns out they were right. Take nothing for granted folks. Think like we're behind and GOTV. We can let up on Nov 4th. Until then, it's not over.

[DarthDem]

24. No . . .

Last time Michigan reelected Sen. Stabenow and threw Republicans out of the top four statewide offices. That was 2018. Nothing has changed in the GOPers' favor since then. It's actually gotten quite a bit worse for them, in fact.

[calguy]

25. By last time I meant 2016

And my point is take nothing for granted.

[DarthDem]

26. But that isn't last time

2018 happened.

I'm not taking anything for granted and I doubt anyone else is either. Vote. Volunteer. Donate if able.