A big caveat about good Biden polls.

[edhopper]

This year, a week can be a decade. We are rarely talking about the same thing 7 days later.
Example; a week after we were all talking about Trump's taxes, were talking about the debate and Trump having COVID.
So what the conversation will be a week before the election is anybody's guess. At this point last time the Access Hollywood tape had just come out and Trump was done. And don't forget they will cheat.
I won't feel good about this race until Joe is declare the winner on Nov. 4th.

[634-5789]

1. Agreed, but we have to keep our noses to the grindstone until then!

[saidsimplesimon]

2. It isn't over till it's over and I am

not counting any chickens yet.

[Aristus]

3. But voter polls come with a suspense date: Election Day.

Until that happens, there's no real way to keep them out of the news cycle.

With everything else Trump, the news cycle depends on what particular brand of weird shit he's going to pull. He pulls it, they report it, he pulls some other shit, and the media pounces on that, previous weird shit forgotten.

[kurtcagle]

6. Of course lately

everything that replaces the story du jour is in fact worse for Trump than the last. At this point in 2016, Clinton was getting pummeled one after the other by stories about her alleged corruption, and that sunk in. No one story is going to "kill" Trump, but what is doing him in is the relentless drumbeat of negative stories, and the fact that while he keeps trying to turn the narrative away from Covid-19, the virus seems remarkably adept at regaining the main stage.

[lagomorph777]

45. +1 a never-ending series of self-made disasters for Trump.

[mindem]

4. I keep thinking

that this is the point we need to shift into overdrive. We need an absolute landslide to eliminate any doubt about the election.

[JaneQPublic]

5. Tons of people have already voted...

...much more than in 2016, and most are Dem voters.

Anything earth-shattering better happen soon to have an impact, as more people are banking their vote every day.

[Statistical]

7. Agreed but the polls have been remarkably consistent this year.

In 2016 they were all over the map. If the election had been held 2 weeks sooner in 2016 it is likely Clinton would have won. That is the danger with polls up and down and all over the place.

This year has been very atypical in how consistent the polls have been. Biden got a bit of a bump from the debates and a bit more from Trump's covid announcement (and associated dumbassery) but even those bumps were solid.

Anything can happen your right but there is a lot of early voting going on right now and the polls are consistently in Biden's favor. That is a big difference from 2016.

[qazplm135]

8. what do you think can possibly happen in a week

or even three weeks, that either hasn't already happened, or will erase all that's happened so far, to the extent that a 10+ point lead dissolves?

Because short of alien invasion or the creation of a mind-control machine that works nationwide, I don't see anything to not feel good about or to think that Biden's not headed for a landslide.

Time for the 16 PTSD to end.

[edhopper]

15. That's it

We don't know what surprize is next.

Look at the Senate races in MI and NC that were in the bag and now slipping.

[Turin_C3PO]

17. NC is in no way slipping.

The latest polls actually show that Cunnighams lead increased over Tillis. And this poll was after the "scandal".

[edhopper]

18. That is good to hear.

[lagomorph777]

46. Also, MI is +9 for Peters again.

[qazplm135]

21. first of all

neither were "in the bag." There were solid mid single digit leads in both.

A poll just came out with the NC senator 10 points ahead.

One poll comes out with the MI race a one pointer.

But you appear to focus on the second poll, but not the first.

Of course, NEITHER poll matters by itself, the polling AVERAGE is what matters.

And in both polling averages, the Dem candidate has a mid single digit lead.

Which means, they are slightly ahead given the margin for error.

So stop with the fear factor, and get on the phone banks.

[edhopper]

24. The fear factor

is why we need the phone banks.

[qazplm135]

26. no, we need phone banks

because we have an opportunity to blow the motherfu**ers out.

[NorthOf270]

35. Michigan was never "in the bag"

It's been a concern for awhile because too many people ignore it.

[uponit7771]

27. Barr will arrest Biden and scoot him off to Gitmo, the uninformed will give Barr and Trump the

... benefit of the doubt.

[qazplm135]

28. tell you what

if that happens, I'll empty my bank account into yours.

[uponit7771]

31. Nah, just admit when it does happen you gave them the benefit of the doubt in an OP, deal?

I'll admit if it doesn't happen that I didn't give them or the people around them the benefit of the doubt ...

[qazplm135]

32. clearly you missed the part where I think

the idea of that happening is pretty ridiculously far-fetched.

[uponit7771]

33. Cause you give them the benefit of the doubt, I did the same with Comey

[qazplm135]

34. Ffs

No one is sending Biden to GITMO, that's QANON level conspiracy theory.

[uponit7771]

40. No US flag officer is ever going to take a photo op with a sitting president during....

... an election season either right?

I know, I know ... "it's not the same" but its similar enough and I don't put ANYTHING past them including jailing Biden with false charges.

These people are desperate and stupid, stupid and desperate things is what they'll do.

[qazplm135]

41. It's not remotely the same

Good grief

[uponit7771]

42. lol ... I posted you'll say that !!! They don't have to be "the same" just farfetched enough to NOT

... give the Trump admin the benefit of the doubt.

They don't deserve and nano meter of room on what they will or wont do

[qazplm135]

44. Sorry

I don't deal with QA level CT. Sell that to someone else.

[Rice4VP]

9. The difference is that over 8M people

have already voted. More states will start voting this week and Trump is only reaching out to his people. No one else is interested in what he has to say.

Plus, the Democrats treated us to about 3 hours of how the crazy judge will steal your healthcare.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. No caveat needed actually.

This race has remained remarkably stable since spring, with Biden leading between 6-10 points nationally. Nothing you have mentioned has changed the trajectory of this race. It would be silly to expect that trajectory to change so dramatically in the next three weeks that it drops Biden's numbers significantly. And no, it's lazy and disingenuous to use 2016 as an example. Hillary certainly had a persistent lead in 2016 but it was never stable.

The day of the first debate, Hillary led Trump by an average margin of just 2.4 points. The day the Access Hollywood tape dropped, her lead was only 4.6 points. When the Comey letter dropped, her lead was 4.6 points - the exact same as it was the day of the Access Hollywood tape.

Prior to the debates, Hillary was in deep trouble. Her lead nationally was extremely narrow and she lacked momentum. The debate helped, as did the Access Hollywood tape but neither changed the fundamentals of the race - that Hillary was struggling to blow open the race.

That has rarely been the case for Biden. His lead has been some of the most consistent of any election on record.

[TheRealNorth]

11. My concern is not that the polls are wrong

my concern is with the post office and mail-in ballots, other forms of Republican sabotage, and with long lines for those who choose to vote in-person.

[oswaldactedalone]

13. Add fake collection boxes

and your concern is on point. Whatever it takes to do it, let’s get our voters casting their ballots... and placing them in approved collection boxes when necessary.

[DarthDem]

12. Concern Noted

[Arthur_Frain]

14. I'm with you, polls mean nothing to me.

I will only feel a bit better if the election goes our way on the 4th.

I’ll only be “happy” when Joe takes office. In between election night and that day we are in for spleen-churning levels of lies, rage, and hatred.

I’ll actually be giddy if and when shit gibbon is facing serious legal consequences.

[qazplm135]

22. individual polls mean nothing...

polling averages and polling trends absolutely do have meaning.

[Arthur_Frain]

23. 2016 polls were pretty useless.

nt

[qazplm135]

25. how so?

Show your work.

Spoiler, they weren't. The national polls were one percentage point off the final national margin.

The state polls were mostly close, with a couple of exceptions.

What you aren't tracking is that a 2 percent popular vote lead translates to a toss up in the electoral college, which is exactly what we got when you consider that only 80K votes in three states was the difference between Trump and Clinton.

[Arthur_Frain]

50. Polls are useless.

Show my work?

Really?

That’s what you took away from my comment? An opportunity to bitch about polls? You know damned well you can find a “poll” to back up whatever you want. I saw polls that had her in the lead, quite prominently.

But the point of my post, (since you obviously missed it) is to vote like we’re ten points down.

Go take your quibein.

[qazplm135]

51. Nonsensical

And no, you didn't. Her polling average was one point off her final average.

And the ten points down nonsense is dumb too. People stay home when it's ten points down.

No the point is you want to be negative. You're one of those people who would rather think negative and then be surprised than think positive. You're suffering from 2016 PTSD. Which makes you say ridiculous things.

[Turin_C3PO]

36. Actually, the 2016

polls were fairly accurate.

[LanternWaste]

16. I'm happy Biden is consistently leading in polls...

And I'm happy to vote in November.

The one neither denies nor supports the other.

And I feel pretty damn good.

[Turin_C3PO]

19. All we gotta do is vote.

Biden will be fine. GOTV!!

[edhopper]

37. Will everyone be allowed to?

And will they count all the votes?

[Turin_C3PO]

47. Republicans excel at voter supression.

No doubt some shenanigans will take place
We need to vote early and in person, if possible. We must GOTV to win.

[Gothmog]

20. Ignore the polls and GOTV

[Wounded Bear]

29. Polls are data points, and are thus useful information...

I will vote Blue.

[BlueWavePsych]

43. Agree 100%

GOTV

[WhiteTara]

30. I won't feel good until Biden walks into our

White House on January 21st. Now, I hope after he walks in, he and Jill walk out and stay at the Blair House until a thorough fumigation and several witches spells are done to remove all the evil and dirt from the premises.

[Silent3]

38. At least the newest thing about Trump is always bad lately, however

The short attention span of the media is annoying as hell. I'm not sure how much that reflects or causes the public's short attention span. It's probably an ugly self-reinforcing feedback loop.

But nothing negative about Biden is gaining any traction, and whatever new things we're talking about with Trump is yet another Trump outrage.

I get the need not to be complacent, but I still think it's very realistic to believe Trump is in a place where it's hugely difficult for him to change his trajectory toward ignominious defeat.

[Happy Hoosier]

39. Remain vigilant, but confident.

We are NOT hanging on by a thread here. We are winning and we need to run up the score. Confidence, not desperation, wins votes!

[PTWB]

48. The access Hollywood tape came out two weeks early unfortunately.

2020 is a little different than 2016 - the polling has been far more consistent, there are far fewer undecided voters who may break for one candidate or the other, early voting is breaking records at an incredible pace so votes are already being counted en masse, and of course we are in the middle of a pandemic.

While things can change and almost always tighten just before Election Day, 2020 is a completely different set of circumstances.

That isn’t to say we don’t need to GOTV - obviously we do - but there’s also no need to panic. Vote and then push others to vote for Biden with all your might.

[edhopper]

49. Not panicing

Just not part of the "we got this!" crowd.

[JCMach1]

52. Not really... It has been remarkably stable