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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPollsters have sucked at Florida
Hell, it looks like it is best to go into Election Day without the lead.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I wouldn't compare presidential races with senate and gubernatorial races. They're a completely different animal to poll.
The fact is, going back to 2004, the candidate leading in the RCP average on election day in Florida has won the state in every election except 2012. I'd say getting it right in 2004, 2008 and 2016 is pretty good.
Rule of Claw
(500 posts)1. Panhandle. Redneck Riviera. Easy to project
2. Jacksonville. Easy to project.
3. Central corridor. Swingy to project. Transient population and difficult to declare trends with.
4. Miami-Dade. One of the most difficult areas of the country to model. Extremely diverse with pockets of traditionalism.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)We now know that Russian and republican ratfucking sites that African Americans visited may have had something to do with that.
Yavin4
(35,445 posts)They have a well known history of fudging numbers from Bush/Gore to covid-19. Never trust anything out of FLA.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)That's the typical blather
Florida is easily the most consistent swing state in the country. Anyone who actually pays attention understands that full well. The ideology moves parallel to the nation but just slightly right. Consequently the presidential vote is always a few points right of the national number. No other state in the country is anywhere near that reliable in both categories. Midterms are more right leaning because the electorate is older, whiter and more conservative. But again, it is extremely logical and therefore predictable.
Democratic primary voters made a moronic choice with Andrew Gillum above Gwen Graham. That impacted preference, which is always the deciding factor in elections. Gillum exploded socialism fear throughout the state, and that variable took down Nelson in the senate race, as Cubans got scared and changed their preference away from Democrats.
For anyone who is not gripped by simplistic cynicism, here is a terrific recent analysis of the entire state of Florida, looking to the 2020 outcome, from Steve Schale the expert on Florida voting tendencies:
http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/9/14/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-florida-but-were-afraid.html