TX-23 Was the State's Only True Congressional Swing District. Can Democrats Win It Back?
The Twenty-third is the best pickup opportunity the Democrats have in the entire state. It nearly flipped in 2018, and now the centrist, party-bucking incumbent isn’t on the ticket. Notably, Hurd, who just eked by in 2018, became more popular in his district than either his party or the president—Hillary Clinton won there by 3.4 points in 2016, while Beto O’Rourke took it by 5 points over Ted Cruz two years later. That performance will be difficult to match for a Republican new to the district—especially one who more closely aligns with Trump.
Gonzales’s polling from August showed him narrowly behind in the race, mirroring what a previous independent poll, conducted before he had secured the nomination, found in May.
TX-23 is trending blue, and Democrats have the candidate they wanted. She’s well funded and doesn’t have to face an incumbent. The Cook Political Report lists the district as “lean Democratic.” If Democrats don’t flip the seat, they’re probably in for a bout of soul-searching as they try to figure out what it’ll take for them to succeed in Texas.
https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/gina-ortiz-jones-tony-gonzales-race/