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COOK POLITICAL now estimating a D Senate Gain of 2-7 seats
Last edited Tue Oct 13, 2020, 09:36 AM - Edit history (1)
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Three weeks from Election Day, Democrats are now the clear favorite to flip control of the Senate. A drop not only in President Trump's re-election numbers following his disastrous first debate performance and coronavirus diagnosis but also in subsequent downballot GOP surveys paint a dire picture for Republicans across the board at a very precarious time.
"I've never seen it like this before. Republicans are just in trouble everywhere," said one top GOP pollster. "Some of it's Trump and some of it's the Democratic money machine. It's just not a pretty sight. Anywhere I'm polling, the Democrats are either competitive or ahead. It's all bad. There are no shards of good news."
"Two years ago, if I had told you that Georgia, South Carolina and Kansas were going to be competitive Senate races, you'd have asked what I was smoking," remarked another veteran Republican pollster.
Both Democrats and Republicans privately say that they saw about a three to four-point drop for GOP candidates in polling after that lousy week for Trump. Democratic challengers have also announced record third-quarter fundraising hauls that only seem to be portending a green wave or tsunami that could very well spur a blue earthquake at the polls in just a few weeks.
While some Republicans remain optimistic that they can still stop the bleeding, especially with this week's confirmation hearings for Amy Coney Barrett, time is running out. Millions of people have already voted by mail or in person or will begin to do so very soon. Four vulnerable Republican senators will be in the spotlight during this week's hearings: Chairman Lindsey Graham (SC), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC) and John Cornyn (TX).
"The debate and COVID, you think that's as low as it can get it may not be," remarked another slightly more optimistic GOP strategist. "The Republicans may have a chance to bounce back and bring this thing home."
Still, the same strategist admitted, Trump "never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Case in point — last week, the president abruptly pulled out of stimulus talks only to try and revive them days later. And even as he was still infected with COVID, Trump has defied safety protocols and mask-wearing.
The anchor that Trump is on Republicans is only further being evidenced by some subtle ways GOP incumbents — who had long pledged fealty to the president — are beginning to put some distance between the two. Politico reported over the weekend that Tillis said a vote for him would be "the best check on a Biden presidency" — the clearest argument yet a Senate candidate has made for a Republican Senate to be a check and balance on a Democratic presidency. But that's a gamble that some voters may still not be comfortable in making given the 2016 surprise outcome, and a majority of voters still don't think Biden will win despite is mounting lead in the polls.
However, it's far more likely that independent and swing voters especially are likely to blame Republican incumbents for acting as Trump enablers for so long, and an 11th-hour change of heart isn't going to reverse that feeling. Democrats at the Barrett hearings have been honing in on health care, which remains the dominant issue in their favor and could again help deliver them a Senate majority just like the issue and the threat to pre-existing condition protections cost Republicans the House in 2018. That issue may again reign supreme, only magnified in voters' minds by the pandemic.
Rating Changes:
Georgia Special: Kelly Loeffler (R) — Lean R → Toss Up
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) — Likely R → Lean R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) — Likely R → Lean R
"I've never seen it like this before. Republicans are just in trouble everywhere," said one top GOP pollster. "Some of it's Trump and some of it's the Democratic money machine. It's just not a pretty sight. Anywhere I'm polling, the Democrats are either competitive or ahead. It's all bad. There are no shards of good news."
"Two years ago, if I had told you that Georgia, South Carolina and Kansas were going to be competitive Senate races, you'd have asked what I was smoking," remarked another veteran Republican pollster.
Both Democrats and Republicans privately say that they saw about a three to four-point drop for GOP candidates in polling after that lousy week for Trump. Democratic challengers have also announced record third-quarter fundraising hauls that only seem to be portending a green wave or tsunami that could very well spur a blue earthquake at the polls in just a few weeks.
While some Republicans remain optimistic that they can still stop the bleeding, especially with this week's confirmation hearings for Amy Coney Barrett, time is running out. Millions of people have already voted by mail or in person or will begin to do so very soon. Four vulnerable Republican senators will be in the spotlight during this week's hearings: Chairman Lindsey Graham (SC), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC) and John Cornyn (TX).
"The debate and COVID, you think that's as low as it can get it may not be," remarked another slightly more optimistic GOP strategist. "The Republicans may have a chance to bounce back and bring this thing home."
Still, the same strategist admitted, Trump "never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Case in point — last week, the president abruptly pulled out of stimulus talks only to try and revive them days later. And even as he was still infected with COVID, Trump has defied safety protocols and mask-wearing.
The anchor that Trump is on Republicans is only further being evidenced by some subtle ways GOP incumbents — who had long pledged fealty to the president — are beginning to put some distance between the two. Politico reported over the weekend that Tillis said a vote for him would be "the best check on a Biden presidency" — the clearest argument yet a Senate candidate has made for a Republican Senate to be a check and balance on a Democratic presidency. But that's a gamble that some voters may still not be comfortable in making given the 2016 surprise outcome, and a majority of voters still don't think Biden will win despite is mounting lead in the polls.
However, it's far more likely that independent and swing voters especially are likely to blame Republican incumbents for acting as Trump enablers for so long, and an 11th-hour change of heart isn't going to reverse that feeling. Democrats at the Barrett hearings have been honing in on health care, which remains the dominant issue in their favor and could again help deliver them a Senate majority just like the issue and the threat to pre-existing condition protections cost Republicans the House in 2018. That issue may again reign supreme, only magnified in voters' minds by the pandemic.
Rating Changes:
Georgia Special: Kelly Loeffler (R) — Lean R → Toss Up
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) — Likely R → Lean R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) — Likely R → Lean R
7 replies
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This has to be a landslide. Feed voters!
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