New Florida poll (Florida Atlantic Univ, B/C): Biden +4

[brooklynite]

Former Vice President Joe Biden bounced back in this month’s FAU BEPI poll of likely Florida voters holding a 4 point edge 51% to 47% for President Donald Trump, 2% reported voting for someone else. Overall 8% of voters say there is a chance they could change their minds.



https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-edge-in-florida.php

[Statistical]

1. Nice that Biden is competitive but after 2016 I wish the media would stop pretending statistical tie

are anything but a statistical tie.

With a 3.8 MOE Biden and Trump have been statistically tied in Florida in that poll all year. The changes in the polls from March to Oct can't be isolated from statistical noise. If all year the race was actually 50/50 and never changed a single vote all those poll results would be consistent with that.

As a rule of thumb to have a 95% confidence that one candidate is actually ahead of the other candidate the margin between them should be greater than two times the margin of error. So this poll (because it is small) has a 3.8% MOE so anything less than +7.6% is essentially tied. One way to get more accuracy is to use a larger sample but that costs more money.

[SharonClark]

2. Agree.