Boat load of Morning Consult Polls this morning

[Proud liberal 80]

POTUS and Senate....mostly good, but some bad. Disappointed in what I saw on the Senate side (South Carolina, Georgia, Texas)....Also, I am thinking Ohio has become more than Georgia and Texas....And what is up with Minnesota?

https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/

[Statistical]

1. One thing I like about Moring Consult is they properly size their polls.

In states that are expected to be close they use a larger sample to reduce the margin of error. That matters a LOT because results within the MOE are ties. Don't let the media and their horsie race narrative fool you. Results within the MOE are a tie.



Note the 1.4% MOE on the Florida poll. Biden being up more than double the MOE means that is more than just statistical noise. Now for that to happen on election day also requires the sampling to be representative and for those people to actually vote but having a large sample with a low MOE means the Florida result is statistically significant.

One thing that is is geographically interesting is how much more conservative SC is than its two neighbors NC and GA. Biden polls 10% worse in SC than in GA.

Biden (outside MOE)
Colorado
Florida
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Statistical Tie
Arizona
Georgia
Ohio
Minnesota (just barely inside 2x MOE)
North Carolina (just barely inside 2x MOE)
Texas

Trump (outside MOE)
South Carolina

Of all of these Minnesota is unexpected. Biden is solidly up but it has a 3.3% MOE so would want to see him 6.6% up but he is only 6% (well likely 6.49% or less due to rounding). Not really worried it could be an outlier would like to see MC use a larger sample in Minnesota next time.

[bagimin]

3. Fl. lookin good

hope these numbers hold.

[zebrapa]

2. What About IOWA

Iowa not part of presidential or senate survey. !