AK-SEN: Sullivan moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean' Republican
As we wrote when we moved Alaska to Likely Republican back in June, the 49th state is still reliably Republican at the presidential level. But presidential polling here too has immensely tightened, and that's helped Independent Al Gross, running as the Democratic nominee, close the gap with freshman GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Gross seeks to exude Alaska — his ads talk about his commercial fishing and killing a bear. At their first virtual debate this weekend, Gross was outside in his backyard in a hunting jacket while Sullivan was indoors in front of campaign signs. Gross also reported raising a staggering $9 million in the third quarter, which goes a long way in the Last Frontier. Public and private polling now shows this race tightening, though Sullivan still retains an advantage and the state is notoriously hard to poll. But spending from Republicans shows they're worried about both the numbers and Gross's financial advantage — the Senate Leadership Fund has spent or reserved nearly $4.2 million here, while the NRSC is also about to go on air this week.
Republicans hoped to get a boost when a judge ruled that Gross couldn't be listed on the ballot as an Independent but will instead be shown as the Democratic nominee. And they've complained that outside money coming in to boost Gross is really from Democratic-aligned groups, thus blunting his Independent claims. In that Saturday night debate, Sullivan worked to tie Gross to would-be Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer at every turn. Still, Alaska is certainly a state that marches to the beat of its own drum, and this could be a surprising race down the final stretch too. It's now firmly in the Lean Republican column.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/three-weeks-out-three-rating-changes-toward-democrats-add-growing
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