Democrats are obviously hugely motivated this election. What about Republican voters?

[Silent3]

No, I'm not counting on anything here... GOTV, don't get complacent, yadda, yadda... I know.

But I do wonder if many Republican voters, especially older voters, aren't so eager to get out there in the middle of COVID and risk their lives to vote for Mango Mussolini. They've been scared away from mail-in voting by their own party, which many Republican voters used to favor. How many people accustomed to mail-in, who may not have gone to a polling station in years, will follow through with an in-person vote after giving up on mail-in?

In the media we mostly see the loudest, craziest, most obnoxious Trump supporters who make a lot of noise. But what about other, quieter Republican voters? The kind who will reflexively pull the lever for anyone with an (R) after their name, who can't bring themselves to vote for any Democrat, but who aren't entirely immersed in a world of Fox News propaganda, and can see what an embarrassing fuck-up Trump is?

I've got my fingers crossed that a lot of the polls we're seeing, already favoring Biden quite a bit, are over-estimating Republican turnout, and underestimating Democratic turnout.

[C_U_L8R]

1. Their base is shrinking. That says it all.

[qazplm135]

2. Big question

Ask again later. 😋

I suspect that he will get his folks to mostly turnout but a few percent will stay home and a few percent will vote Biden. Meanwhile it's clear we will see an increase from Clinton.

That pretty much equals anywhere from a solid win to a blowout depending on a couple percent either way.

[Silent3]

4. At this point I'm mostly hoping for/concerned about the down-ballot effect

I don't want us to just take the Senate, but do so definitively, and hand a bunch of craven and/or sycophantic Trump enablers the defeat they richly deserve.

[qazplm135]

7. Not many examples

Of Senate candidates outperforming Trump, but we will see on election day.

[RazzleCat]

3. yes many of them are also very motivated

We read all about the Republican voters who are for J. Biden, but understand the "Trump" voter is as or even more motivated to get out and vote. I do not know what percentage of the voting population a "Trump" voter is, but I will assume that each and every one of them are going to vote.

[jcgoldie]

5. He has shrunken the base and run independents away but...

The 40% that has stuck by him does seem very motivated. They have circled the wagons, the more offensive Trump has become the more defensive his supporters seem to be. They will get out their vote but as long as we do as well there is simply not enough of them and every action he takes seems to further restrict his ability to grow his support.

I went across south central Illinois saturday on a road trip to pick up a new buck for my goat herd. I'm very used to these red rural areas and should not be surprised but after all that's happen I was still a little dismayed by the sheer volume of Trump yard signs and shows of support. I realize that yard signs don't vote and also Trump has no chance in Illinois, but do not fool yourself into believing that he has lost rural America. If there are this many people willing to display their support proudly in southern Illinois despite the fact that the president is a completely inept lying embarrassment, then I have no doubt Iowa and rural Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, states where the election hinges are no different.

[Silent3]

9. I'm not talking about huge wins and losses in particular demographics...

...just shifts of a few percentage points that seem likely to have occurred, and likely not to be factored into many poll-weighting algorithms yet. There are many Senate races right on the edge now, not to mention states like Georgia and Texas for the presidential race.

I may not expect things to go our way in these races, but I don't feel that it's unrealistic either to hope that there's been just enough loss of enthusiasm among quieter Republican voters to create some pleasant surprises this cycle.

[Turin_C3PO]

10. It depends on the state.

For instance, I live in NM and travel frequently to AZ. In both states, rural Trump support has, to my eyes, gone down compared to 2016.

[katmondoo]

6. The Trump supporters put so much money and effort into attending the rallies there is no time to

VOTE for their dear leader.

[beachbumbob]

8. 2018 is the basis for 2020 and the big factor is you don;t kick a sleeping bear

way to many democratic voters have been dismissive on voting over the years. That is NO longer the case

[Johonny]

11. Trump won in 2016 in part based on silent voters that wouldn't tell the polls they like him

These were people that are mostly independent or lean right. People that were too embarrassed to admit to voting for Trump. There was the other problem that a large number of people voted the first time for Obama. These people didn't represent new liberal voters. They simply stopped voting once Obama was gone.

Both these groups share the same problem. They don't understand how the government works. People that thought Obama and Clinton didn't do enough for them, but don't understand handing the house and senate to Republicans was why Obama didn't do more etc...


The question is will democrats face a double whammy again in 2020. Will Democratic voters stay home (or be kept home by voter suppression), will they lose all the first time liberal voters from 2016? Will Trump gain that silent independent vote too afraid to tell the pollsters they like Trump?

The odds at this point seem unlikely. The early voting boxes by me were mobbed nearly a month before Nov 3rd. People couldn't wait to vote this year. I assume because passions are high. That means you're likely to draw in those never voted people back that faded away after Obama. Voting is the popular thing to do right now. You see this effect when you hear that Shaq voted for the first time ever.

I also see a lot of my independent friends not breaking for Trump. They won't go Biden, but I see a strong surge for libertarians this year instead of Trump. That might cost him Florida and Ohio. I think that it's this last turnout that worries the GOP. This is the turnout that put them in the front seat in the House, Senate and presidency in 2016. But is there really a silent embarrassed Trump fan out there in 2020 like 2016? I just don't see it. Being pro-Trump is the shits for RW people. He's no longer your secret passion. This time the polls are probably capturing Trump's real support. It's why Biden is so confident and Trump looks like a trainwreck. His internal polling is telling him, those independents aren't there this year. They in fact hate him.

[Whiskeytide]

12. I think we are underestimating the probable increase in ...

... new voters for Tя☭mp.

In 2016 there were record new registrations in almost every deep red county in Alabama. These were, I believe, previously disengaged deplorables who got excited about Tя☭mp’s racist overtones, and decided to get off their ass and vote. They came down from the hills in droves.

But I don’t think ALL of them were quick enough on the uptake to get registered to vote in 2016. Many more have since jumped on the Tя☭mp bandwagon since his barely concealed dog whistles have become blaring foghorns in the last 4 years. They will vote this time around, alongside all the others who popped up previously.

It’s true he has shrunk his base. But he may also have increased his voting base, and that is worrisome. The experience in Alabama is likely occurring across many other states to one degree or another.

We HAVE to GOTV.

[dalton99a]

13. They should be encouraged to attend Trump rallies without masks

[rownesheck]

14. Republicans are always motivated.

They always vote. They always have high turnout. That means they don't have any room to grow. They have already peaked. Our side is lazy and apathetic and sometimes we do stupid purity tests. That's why when we get a fire lit under our asses and we actually come together and vote, democrats win. That explains why republicans have worked so hard for 40 years to keep people from voting.