Carville predicts Biden will quickly be declared winner: 'Not going to be close'

[brooklynite]

The Hill

Former Clinton strategist James Carville predicted Democratic nominee Joe Biden will be declared the winner of the upcoming U.S. presidential election by 10:30 p.m. EDT on Election Night, with the "Ragin' Cajun" anticipating he'll be opening a bottle of champagne to celebrate Biden's victory on Nov. 3.

“Not only are we going to know election night, we’re going to know at 10:30 Eastern,” Carville told MSNBC's Brian Williams. “This thing is not going to be close. We’re going to know early. I’m not in any panic whatsoever."

"l probably see as much polling as anybody in the country," he continued. "And if anything, it continues to improve [for Biden]. I kind of thought the natural gravity would take it down, but that doesn’t seem to be happening as of yet. And we’ve got three weeks before we go to post. I’m ready to go. I think we’re going to know, and I anticipate opening a bottle of champagne. Brian, maybe I’ll share it with you by distance.”

The president currently trails Biden in the RealClearPolitics index of polls by 4.9 points in key battleground states that include North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[SoonerPride]

1. I agree. It will be a republican bloodbath and they know it.

On Nov 4th they will all say "Donald Who?"

We can't let them pretend they didn't support trumpism.

Ever.

[LakeArenal]

2. I agree. Haven't felt doom in a long time.

Gloom in today’s hearing tho.

[MyOwnPeace]

18. Don't even watch or listen to ANY of the hearing BS

it is a done deal and there's nothing we can do about it. You'll only be feeding the ulcer!

November 3 needs to be our focus point - we must GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!!!

[LakeArenal]

20. We are all with you on that. 🇺🇸❣️🇺🇸

[MyOwnPeace]

30. Thanks, Lake!

We have good reason to work together:

"You, you may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you will join us
And the world will live as one!"

[LakeArenal]

31. Imagine.

[yaesu]

57. I don't even watch the world news lately, the only TV I watch is Maddow's hour. nt

[wnylib]

62. That's how I feel, too.

Haven't watched or listened to any of it.

[malaise]

3. A blowout of epic proportions is coming

ByeDon and fuck you!

[dawg day]

4. If Florida goes Biden-

It will report Tuesday evening, so if that goes for Biden, we can probably assume so will AZ.

Even without AZ and OH and PA, with MI, WI, and VA-- Biden at 288, with FL.

And PA is probably in the bag.
I've been fooling with the interactive map--

https://www.270towin.com/

[cannabis_flower]

55. What would be really sweet

Would be if Texas went for Biden!

[jcgoldie]

5. Carville was pretty damn nervous in 2018

Not so much this time around...

[lucca18]

6. That would be wonderful!

I will not be watching on election night as I will be so nervous.

But, I vision my husband running into the room, shouting with happiness that Biden won!

[moonscape]

43. My anticipatory pain is that because of covid

I will be watching alone. It's almost worse than thinking of the holidays alone due to covid.

Phone, facetime, zoom ... just aren't adequate

[empedocles]

7. Hope Carville is right. However, imo, trump is an attack animal. Can't really consider

anything but attack. Can't quit, even on illness grounds.

Faced with likely devastating prosecution - he will claim 'rigged' to his dying day.

[demtenjeep]

8. I LOVE LOVE LOVE Carville

I listen when he speaks

[Kahuna]

14. So do I.

[DeminPennswoods]

9. The polls have been remarkably stable,

not just the last few months, but for 4 years. CNN or MSNBC showed a graph over time and it was the epitome of calm and steadiness.

[durablend]

10. Biden needs to proclaim it first before Trump can do it.

Because we all know Trump *will* proclaim himself the winner no matter the outcome and no matter the totals.

[dawg day]

65. And Biden should NOT take it back until the last vote is counted.

But if FL comes in for Biden and/or Ohio, we should all say, "It's all over," over and over again.

[radius777]

11. I saw that.

FL, OH and NC will likely be called on election night, and so we will basically know how the election is going. If Biden wins one or more of those states it's likely he will win the election, even if it wil take some time to know the results of the Midwest states.

[BlueLucy]

12. I feel it too..

and I was not at all sure in 2016. I was scared shitless. I'm not scared now.

[PatSeg]

13. This is pretty much the feeling I've had lately

I think the win will be so overwhelming that there will be no doubt Joe has won and we won't have to wait days to find out. I know republicans will cheat and that there will be voter suppression, but if it is the landslide it appears it will be, all their efforts will fail miserably. I think Trump knows this and republicans in congress do as well.

It will probably get a little ugly and messy, but Joe will be our next president.

[Grammy23]

15. I have some Prosecco to open on Election Night.

I fully expect to open it to celebrate the election of Joe Biden and the REJECTION of Donald J. tRump!

[LakeArenal]

21. We will be joining you with the same. 🥂🍾

[nolabear]

61. I've got to go buy some. Good wine when I vote champagne when he wins.

Mind you I vote by mail so I’m not having a two bottle night. Maybe...

[Grammy23]

71. We mailed our ballots in a couple of weeks ago.

Last week I checked online and confirmed our ballots have been received at the Supervisor of Election’s office. Just waiting for confirmation our votes have been counted. I might open a bottle of bubbly when I know our votes have been tallied! And buy a second bottle for election night! Do ya blame me?! LOL. I plan to celebrate the defeat of Donald J. tRump! 🎉🎉🎉

[NYC Liberal]

16. If it's clear on election night, then Joe needs to declare victory and start

acting as the president-elect no matter what Trump says or does...because Trump is going to say and do shit no matter what.

[tavernier]

17. I think James Carville knows more about the game of politics

than any other one person in the world, so this makes me happy.

[MoonlitKnight]

19. Agree

But think it will be around 11 PM ET.

[PTWB]

22. I think Biden will be a clear winner.

What is more likely to be Trump’s election night tweet:

A. “Joe Biden fought a good, honest campaign and the people have spoken. Congratulations and I concede.”

B. “FAKE ELECTION. DEEP STATE COUP. DO NOT LET THEM GET AWAY WITH THIS. HELP IF YOU CAN & RESIST.”

[maryellen99]

27. I'll take B for $200 Alex nt

[DENVERPOPS]

40. No kidding

Trump and his Trump Humpers are definitely the "sore loser" type assholes........

[Akacia]

50. Indeed, sore when they won too, possibly since he knows it was rigged in his favor.

It amazes me that after 4 years he still brings up Hillary.

[DENVERPOPS]

69. It's usually Gays-Guns-God

to bring out their voters. They found that mentioning Hillary or Obama is a bonus.......

[MissMillie]

23. From his lips to God's ear (n/t)

.

[tulipsandroses]

24. I agree. Trump is a piss poor politician. We already knew this. But for strategy's sake...

How he has not course corrected is beyond me. Yeah I know he can't change. I'm just trying to game this out, any other politician would have course corrected by now. It goes to show that he has a bunch of D Listers on his team. The best and the brightest political minds want nothing to do with this administration.
I'm not going to even touch all the deplorable things that he has done. Just looking at what an awful strategy they have going that makes no sense if you want to win.

Here he is in 2020, talking about Hillary's emails. Nobody cares!!! You are not running against HRC. People care about what is happening now. The deadly pandemic killing people and wiping out businesses and jobs, and with that people's sense of security. Except for the people that show up at his rallies, nobody cares about HRC's email when Covid is breathing down your back one way or the other.

[True Blue American]

44. Even Trump's Aides

Are saying,” Trump blew it when he cancelled the stimulus negotiations!”

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. It will be after 11pm EST, to allow the west coast polls to close. Nt

[hvn_nbr_2]

38. Agree. They won't call it before west coast polls close

And it's EST as you say, not EDT.

[FloridaBlues]

26. I agree with him but 10:30pm is too early perhaps by midnight!

And yes to the bubbly!

[LAS14]

28. What was Carville saying at this time in 2016???

I don't know. This is a real question. Not rhetorical.

tia
las

[BannonsLiver]

42. If I recall he was hopeful but not nearly as much as this time around

[octoberlib]

29. I'm thrilled with this but 2016 traumatized me and I'm afraid I'll jinx the race if I

act too confidant.

[calimary]

48. I know EXACTLY how you feel, octoberlib!

Exactly!

I am still not over 2016. And everything that’s come about since Trump’s arrival - every horror, every scandal, every crime, every lie, every institutional breakage or cancellation, every defilement of all that we know, love, respect, and revere - takes me back to a single lament:
This would never have happened/would never have been done, if Hillary were president.

[Talitha]

32. Picture it: Dump on the balcony in a Superman costume, clutching a crying towel.

[Harker]

34. I'd like to see how well he flies. n/t

[flibbitygiblets]

52. This! 🦸‍♂️

[Harker]

33. Pass it around.

I'll take a swig.

[relayerbob]

36. They won't annouce until 11 to let CA closed

But yeah

[Renew Deal]

37. Biden needs NC and maybe AZ to come in for that to happen.

Or PA and almost anything else.

[MoonlitKnight]

41. PA and TX

FL will be too close to call when Texas is called for Biden earlier than expected- putting Biden over the top just after CA gets called at poll closing at 11. Record turnout for minorities and young voters in the cities and a blowout in the suburbs for Biden.

Florida called after midnight for Biden by around 1%.

[Le Drunkard Thomas]

39. Write me down for $25 at 2 AM

I'm in basic agreement with James: it won't take a couple days, or a week, or until Donnie Trump has an intelligent thought aka the Heat Death of the Universe. We'll know Biden's won within six hours or so.

[tormadjax]

45. He's right. It's gonna be a real blowout. Best Dem showing for several decades! n/t

[warmfeet]

46. Step one.

[barbtries]

47. this is my deepest wish in the world right now.

I think it's possible. he's buried himself. he's going to lose and he deserves to lose.

[soldierant]

49. Cool. But, please - NO COMPLACENCY !!!

nt

[Evolve Dammit]

51. I hope you're right "Corporal Cueball!"

[BadgerMom]

53. I turned in my mail ballot for Biden and all Dems at the County Clerk today.

[oldsoftie]

54. THATS how you shut down the expected "stop the counting!" BS.

Make him the loser election night/Wed AM. The HE will be screaming "Wait! All the votes havent been counted!"

[Lucinda]

56. It will happen but we all have to vote first!

[ailsagirl]

58. I wish I could believe it-- but we've been screwed over before...

and I hesitate to make any assumptions, no matter who predicts it.

Or, I should say, if we didn't have to worry about malfeasance going on in the background, I would say we're IN. But since the repukes are now regularly falsifying votes and rigging elections, I have no doubt they'll do it this time. They're desperate. I hope to God I'm wrong.

[MustLoveBeagles]

59. I agree with Carville

I do think 10:30 is a bit early. I'm thinking it will be called at 11 pm.

[MissB]

66. Once California comes in

And all the west coast.

[Hekate]

60. From his lips to the Lady's ears

Meanwhile, all you folks working on the GOTV, please don’t stop

[mcar]

63. Oh please, oh please, oh please

I'll be working all day election day as a poll watcher. I want to come home, eat pizza, drink wine,and celebrate a victory before midnight.

That's not too much to ask, is it?

[wnylib]

64. I sure hope Carville is right. He's a good

stratgist and experienced, so he should know what he's talking about.

But I just wonder, with so many people doing mail in ballots, how can we be so sure on election night?

Imagine this - Trump doing a total turn around about mail in voting if Biden is declared the winner on election night. Trump: "Not final yet. Rigged machines. Count the mail in ballots. It will be a beautiful win for me. Unless they rigged the mail in votes too. A lot of people are saying that. They rigged the machines and the mail votes. It's a beautiful win for me. Going to court. They say it's a really big deep state socialist coup. I win by a YUGE margin if you don't count the illegal immigrants and the Democrats who voted 3 and 4 times."

[Turin_C3PO]

70. Oh Trump won't concede, that's for sure.

But his lawsuits won’t get him into office. On Jan 21st, he’ll be gone, either voluntarily or dragged out by the Secret Service or US Marshals.

[wnylib]

72. Oh, I know he won't concede.

I'm just thinking of the irony if Biden is declared the winner on election night and the reason Trump gives for not conceding is because all the mail in votes have not been counted yet - after saying for months that mail in votes are not valid.

[brooklynite]

67. FOLLOWUP: Carville on John Heilemann's podcast: "Landslide"

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-hell-and-high-water-with-70854991/episode/james-carville-72545543

[sarcasmo]

68. The Rajun Cajun is right. I've been predicting a 7 million popular vote victory, 308 E,V.

[BlueWavePsych]

73. Take nothing for granted. GOTV

[ChoppinBroccoli]

74. I've Heard This From SEVERAL People Who Really Know Their Stuff

There was a longtime CNN political analyst on a radio show I was listening to a couple MONTHS ago, and he said, "Not only will we know the winner that night, but we'll know EARLY that night."

I've been saying it here for a long time. As soon as they call Florida and/or Ohio for Biden, you can just turn your TV off, because it's over. In all honesty, if they call Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania for Biden (or all three), it's over right then. Trump has to carry all those States to even have a shot, and he's trailing badly in all 3.