Early-voting turnout in Ohio is at a record pace so far

[RandySF]

COLUMBUS, Ohio—Ohio voters showed up in record numbers during the state’s first week of early voting, according to Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s office.

The spike in early absentee voting comes as no surprise, given concerns about voting at polling places during the coronavirus pandemic.

During the first week of early voting, 193,021 Ohioans voted in-person at local boards of elections, according to a LaRose release. That’s more than triple the 64,321 Ohio voters who cast an in-person ballot at the same time in 2016.

The release did not provide statistics on the number of ballots submitted so far by mail or via a ballot drop box.

Absentee ballot requests are also breaking records. As of Tuesday, 2,470,268 absentee ballot applications have been received by elections officials in Ohio, up from 1,245,670 ballot requests at the same point in 2016, the release stated.

In Cuyahoga County, nearly twice as many residents cast their ballots during the first week of early voting as those who voted during the same time in 2016, records show.

“Voter enthusiasm is off the charts, and we couldn’t be happier,” said LaRose, a Columbus-area Republican, in a release. “We’ve never seen this many people voting early in-person and it demonstrates what Ohioans know to be true - it’s easy to vote in the Buckeye State!”




https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/10/early-voting-turnout-in-ohio-is-at-a-record-pace-so-far.html

[IndianaDave]

1. I have a lot of relatives and friends in Ohio,

and I think LaRose is likely to draw a completely different conclusion about all those votes, once they're counted. Is that a blue haze drifting in . . . ?

[Amishman]

2. Which means nothing

Covid changed the turnout model completely, record pace is meaningless in this year off social distancing and stay at home recommendations.

We have zero data on what turnout to expect in this environment.

[LisaL]

3. During social distancing and stay at home recommendations, you'd expect turnout to be lower, not

higher. The fact that it is higher indicates very high interest in voting.

[Amishman]

4. There are several ways to model it and we don't know enough

We know a large slice of our base is extremely motivated, and likely want to vote early for the satisfaction of voting against Orange Julius. For these people, voting will outweigh covid concerns.

The question is how will the less political slice of the electorate respond? How will their turnout be? Are we higher overall or just front loaded?

With no viable comparison there is absolutely no way to know or even give an educated guess.

So let's all just keep working and not celebrate early.