Pennsylvania: Trump Campaign Stalls

[brooklynite]

Politico

PHILADELPHIA — For a few months, things were moving in the right direction for President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.

Between July and September, he cut Joe Biden’s lead in half. But since then, Trump’s progress has stalled, even backslid: Biden is now up by 7 percentage points, according to polling averages.

To make matters worse, Trump has recently lost more voters here on the all-important question of which candidate can better manage the coronavirus pandemic. And Biden has cut into one of the president’s last remaining advantages in the race: his stewardship of the economy.

A few months ago, voters trusted Trump over Biden to handle the economy by double digits. Now, after millions of dollars’ worth of pro-Biden ads have bashed Trump, the two the two men are nearly tied on the issue.

[underpants]

1. Bad things happen in Philadelphia

[My Pet Orangutan]

3. Yeah. Like Three Mile Island.

[yellowcanine]

7. Wasn't Philly, closer to Harrisburg on Susquehanna River.

[WSHazel]

2. Trump never cut Biden's lead in half in PA

One would have to really cherry pick the data to find two polls that showed Trump ever materially gaining on Biden. Biden's lead in all the swing states has been remarkably stable.

[beachbumbob]

4. I would suggest the polls actually understate Biden's lead

[OnDoutside]

5. Well said.

[Amishman]

6. Yup, that stability is what gives me the most confidence

2016 had polls and leads rise and fall, plus a lot of undecideds.

This time our lead has been rock steady, just little waves as we bounced around in the noise of the margin of error. Significantly fewer undecideds this time too.

[WSHazel]

8. Polls are always stable when there is an incumbent

When an incumbent is on the ballot, polls are a lot more stable because everyone has an opinion on the incumbent. In 1996, 2004, and 2012, the polls would move up or down a point or two, but they were stable most of the election. 1992 was more volatile because of Perot.

Polls can move quite a bit when there is no incumbent. There were a few polls showing McCain very lose to Obama in late September 2008 and a couple even had McCain winning. The Clinton/Trump polls bounced around quite a bit.