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Wisconsin: Covid crisis colors race
PoliticoJoe Biden for months has held a steady polling lead of about 5 or 6 percentage points in Wisconsin. But after Hillary Clinton blew it in the state in 2016 — helping swing the race to Trump — the lead was never enough to put Democrats at ease.
Until recently. A confluence of events over the past month — all seeming to favor Democrats — has shifted the dynamic in this Rust Belt battleground.
Wisconsin plunged into its worst bout with Covid-19 since the onset of the pandemic, reminding voters of the uneven response from the Trump administration as well as the president’s early attempts to dismiss the severity of the virus. A Green Party candidate was not allowed on the ballot — erasing the prospect of a third-party siphoning of votes that contributed to Clinton’s razor-thin defeat. And there are increasing signs that key constituencies that Donald Trump needs to defeat Biden, including suburban and swing voters, are moving away from him.
“I’d be surprised if Joe Biden loses Wisconsin,” says Sachin Chheda, a Milwaukee-based Democratic strategist. “All of the data tell us Republicans are seeing declining margins in the suburbs. He’s changed the math around suburban women. He has to keep the independents he had in 2016 to win. I think he’s losing them, not winning them.”
Until recently. A confluence of events over the past month — all seeming to favor Democrats — has shifted the dynamic in this Rust Belt battleground.
Wisconsin plunged into its worst bout with Covid-19 since the onset of the pandemic, reminding voters of the uneven response from the Trump administration as well as the president’s early attempts to dismiss the severity of the virus. A Green Party candidate was not allowed on the ballot — erasing the prospect of a third-party siphoning of votes that contributed to Clinton’s razor-thin defeat. And there are increasing signs that key constituencies that Donald Trump needs to defeat Biden, including suburban and swing voters, are moving away from him.
“I’d be surprised if Joe Biden loses Wisconsin,” says Sachin Chheda, a Milwaukee-based Democratic strategist. “All of the data tell us Republicans are seeing declining margins in the suburbs. He’s changed the math around suburban women. He has to keep the independents he had in 2016 to win. I think he’s losing them, not winning them.”