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Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)
Wed Oct 14, 2020, 10:58 AM Oct 2020

The Race is Tightening!!!!!!! It's happening!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Really, it's real! Biden's lead was 10.7 mid morning, then it dropped to 10.6!!!!!!! It's tightening!

Expect to see this soon on the networks.

I do think we'll see the lead below 10.0 soon, but that's just normal movement, the lead was about 7 points before the first debate, I doubt it gets back to that. So despite what you hear soon, the race has widened, not tightened. unless this goes to 7 points, the race has widened with the events of the last month.
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Amishman

(5,557 posts)
1. Yup, I expect a slight regression towards the mean soon
Wed Oct 14, 2020, 11:10 AM
Oct 2020

We've had some favorable outliers into the teens, my guess is reality is somewhere around 8 or 9%.

Swing state polls haven't moved significantly, just bouncing a bit within the same range.

Minds are made up and gave been for a long time. Very few undecideds left, and most of them are people with one critical issue on each side of the partizan divide.

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)
2. Almost 14 million people have already voted
Wed Oct 14, 2020, 11:12 AM
Oct 2020

That number is going up every day. Every day the race gets more out of reach for Trump.

Amishman

(5,557 posts)
4. IMO it's been out of his reach ever since Biden locked up the nomination
Wed Oct 14, 2020, 11:15 AM
Oct 2020

As long as we do our part and follow through.

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)
6. That's probably the truth no one wants to say
Wed Oct 14, 2020, 11:18 AM
Oct 2020

2016 is still a trauma to much of the country. This is not 2016, Biden has had a historically stable lead that surged to over 10 points at the worst possible time for Trump.

People are rightfully worried that this race not being close will cause people to stay home on election day like with Hillary. This is already not the case, we're seeing record turnout across the country in early and absentee voting. It's a tidal wave. It's OK to call it like it is.

BComplex

(8,053 posts)
7. You would think the media would get off on the biggest story of the century instead of this
Wed Oct 14, 2020, 11:22 AM
Oct 2020

stupid "the race is tightening" usual bullshit.

This is probably the biggest election blowout in United States history, the the stupid stupid stupid media moguls are trying to convince us that "the race is tightening" is "news".... It's very old, tired news.

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